NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Thursday, May 18
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Wow… while I was able to grind out a profit on last night’s slate, that is not how I saw that game playing out. The Celtics were in firm control of the game until the third quarter. They were outscored by 21 points in the third and gave up 46 fantasy points in the quarter. They tried to make a run in the fourth, but Jimmy Butler was too much to overcome. I felt like we got a lot right on the slate (Caleb Martin playing a big role, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart being the mid-range targets, etc.), but playing Jayson Tatum over Butler ended up costing me any chance of winning tournaments. Regardless, it was a great performance from Miami and now we move on to Game 2 in Denver.
Game 2: Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Lakers 0 – Nuggets 1
Series Matchups
- Game 1: LAL 126 – DEN 132
Notable Injuries
None
Los Angeles Lakers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $4,800 | #N/A | 30.1 | 1.9 | 24.2 | -7.0 | 18% | -5% | 0.80 | -0.27 | 0.79 | -0.31 | 20.8 | 20.6 | ||||
| D’Angelo Russell | $7,000 | #N/A | 32.5 | -6.4 | 33.9 | -21.9 | 23% | -1% | 1.04 | -0.58 | 1.00 | -0.56 | 25.3 | 24.1 | ||||
| Austin Reaves | $7,400 | #N/A | 28.8 | 13.3 | 23.4 | 16.6 | 15% | 3% | 0.81 | 0.14 | 0.79 | 0.10 | 33.5 | 32.3 | ||||
| LeBron James | $11,200 | #N/A | 35.5 | 4.4 | 52.6 | 3.9 | 32% | -6% | 1.48 | -0.06 | 1.43 | -0.06 | 49.3 | 47.6 | ||||
| Anthony Davis | $11,600 | #N/A | 34.0 | 7.8 | 51.7 | 17.3 | 28% | -4% | 1.52 | 0.13 | 1.54 | 0.18 | 54.3 | 55.0 | ||||
| Rui Hachimura | $3,600 | #N/A | 23.3 | 4.9 | 19.6 | 1.4 | 19% | -2% | 0.84 | -0.10 | 0.84 | -0.07 | 21.2 | 21.0 | ||||
| Lonnie Walker | $3,800 | #N/A | 23.2 | -3.6 | 17.7 | -4.2 | 20% | -2% | 0.76 | -0.08 | 0.75 | -0.01 | 13.0 | 12.9 | ||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | $2,600 | #N/A | 24.1 | -13.9 | 23.5 | -19.2 | 14% | 1% | 0.97 | -0.56 | 0.99 | -0.52 | 6.7 | 7.0 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $9,400 | #N/A | 32.8 | 4.3 | 37.1 | 17.2 | 26% | 2% | 1.13 | 0.33 | 1.09 | 0.41 | 45.2 | 43.3 | ||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,400 | #N/A | 31.3 | 4.7 | 22.1 | 12.9 | 14% | -1% | 0.71 | 0.27 | 0.72 | 0.28 | 21.7 | 22.2 | ||||
| Michael Porter | $7,200 | #N/A | 29.0 | 5.6 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 22% | -6% | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.96 | 0.06 | 31.5 | 30.5 | ||||
| Aaron Gordon | $6,800 | #N/A | 30.2 | 5.8 | 32.2 | -13.0 | 21% | -5% | 1.07 | -0.53 | 1.07 | -0.57 | 30.3 | 30.6 | ||||
| Nikola Jokic | $12,600 | #N/A | 33.7 | 8.7 | 59.1 | 29.7 | 26% | 5% | 1.75 | 0.34 | 1.67 | 0.27 | 70.4 | 68.2 | ||||
| Bruce Brown | $6,600 | #N/A | 28.5 | -4.3 | 25.0 | -0.5 | 17% | 1% | 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.89 | 0.10 | 22.3 | 22.8 | ||||
| Jeff Green | $3,000 | #N/A | 19.5 | -1.9 | 13.9 | -9.7 | 17% | -6% | 0.71 | -0.47 | 0.71 | -0.53 | 10.6 | 10.6 | ||||
| Christian Braun | $2,000 | #N/A | 15.5 | -3.3 | 10.3 | -7.0 | 13% | -3% | 0.66 | -0.39 | 0.68 | -0.33 | 7.6 | 7.8 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 2 Analysis
It was a tale of two games on Tuesday night, as the Nuggets dominated the first half and the Lakers made a furious charge in the second half. Denver had an 18-point lead heading into halftime and were even able to build on that early in the third quarter. I was expecting the Lakers to waive the white towel, but they continued to battle and nearly pulled off the big comeback on the road. Both teams are likely feeling good after the first game, which is rare given the fact that one ended up losing. Game 2 features a 5.5-point spread and a 226.5-point total.
So… what changed in the second half for the Lakers? In addition to making more shots, Darvin Ham put Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic and slid Anthony Davis over to Aaron Gordon. This worked wonders defensively, as it allowed Davis to roam and paint and play the NBA’s version of a free safety. Every time Jokic made a move in the paint, Davis was there to alter the shot or the pass. Hachimura logged 28 minutes, he scored 21 fantasy points, and he had a team-best +10 in the plus/minus department. The Nuggets will make adjustments of their own, but there’s a clear path for Hachimura to play big minutes once again. He’s going to be extremely popular at his price.