NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Wednesday, June 7th
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Much like the first three series for the Heat, nobody was giving them a chance. Much like the first three series, they managed to steal a game on the road and now have a chance to win the NBA Championship if they can take care of business at home. The zone implemented by Erik Spoelstra was the biggest factor in Game 2, as Denver’s offense struggled to get anything going in the fourth quarter. We now have a series on our hands. In terms of the odds, the Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites for Game 3 and are -275 favorites to win the series.
Game 3 should be a good one. Let’s dive into the DFS analysis for this showdown slate.
Game 3: Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Nuggets 1 – Heat 1
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 93 – DEN 104
- Game 2: MIA 111 – DEN 108
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Cody Zeller – Probable
Denver Nuggets Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $11,400 | $14,500 | 32.8 | 8.6 | 37.1 | 9.9 | 26% | -2% | 1.13 | 0.01 | 1.09 | -0.02 | 41 | 46.8 | 4.11 | 44.3 | 3.06 | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,400 | $7,500 | 31.3 | 5.0 | 22.1 | -6.6 | 14% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.28 | 0.72 | -0.28 | 35 | 20.9 | 3.87 | 21.0 | 2.80 | |
| Michael Porter | $7,400 | $10,500 | 29.0 | 5.7 | 29.0 | -3.6 | 22% | -4% | 1.00 | -0.27 | 0.96 | -0.26 | 34 | 29.5 | 3.99 | 28.3 | 2.69 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $6,200 | $11,000 | 30.2 | 7.0 | 32.2 | -5.4 | 21% | -9% | 1.07 | -0.35 | 1.07 | -0.34 | 36 | 27.2 | 4.39 | 27.2 | 2.47 | |
| Nikola Jokic | $15,200 | $18,500 | 33.7 | 7.5 | 59.1 | 5.6 | 26% | 6% | 1.75 | -0.18 | 1.67 | -0.21 | 41 | 65.5 | 4.31 | 61.6 | 3.33 | |
| Bruce Brown | $5,000 | $9,000 | 28.5 | -4.5 | 25.0 | -4.5 | 17% | 5% | 0.88 | -0.02 | 0.89 | -0.07 | 25 | 20.7 | 4.13 | 20.9 | 2.32 | |
| Jeff Green | $1,800 | $6,500 | 19.5 | -6.1 | 13.9 | -5.4 | 17% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.08 | 0.71 | -0.11 | 16 | 7.7 | 4.28 | 7.7 | 1.18 | |
| Christian Braun | $1,200 | $7,000 | 15.5 | -3.7 | 10.3 | -0.5 | 13% | -1% | 0.66 | 0.16 | 0.68 | 0.23 | 12 | 7.1 | 5.91 | 7.2 | 1.02 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,600 | $10,000 | 25.9 | 8.8 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 17% | 3% | 0.69 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 0.24 | 34 | 21.2 | 3.79 | 20.5 | 2.05 | |
| Max Strus | $4,400 | $8,500 | 28.4 | -3.3 | 20.9 | -0.8 | 17% | 2% | 0.74 | 0.07 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 28 | 17.4 | 3.94 | 16.5 | 1.94 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $12,000 | $15,000 | 33.4 | 5.8 | 42.2 | -4.1 | 25% | -3% | 1.26 | -0.29 | 1.29 | -0.32 | 41 | 53.4 | 4.45 | 53.9 | 3.59 | |
| Kevin Love | $2,400 | $8,000 | 20.0 | 2.2 | 20.4 | 4.6 | 19% | 1% | 1.02 | 0.10 | 0.97 | 0.20 | 20 | 19.2 | 8.01 | 18.4 | 2.30 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,000 | $14,000 | 34.6 | 5.4 | 40.1 | 5.7 | 25% | 1% | 1.16 | -0.01 | 1.16 | -0.04 | 41 | 44.1 | 4.90 | 43.8 | 3.13 | |
| Caleb Martin | $6,600 | $9,500 | 29.3 | -6.3 | 20.9 | -7.5 | 14% | -2% | 0.71 | -0.13 | 0.72 | -0.10 | 24 | 18.2 | 2.76 | 18.0 | 1.90 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,800 | $8,000 | 31.2 | -6.6 | 26.9 | -6.8 | 16% | 2% | 0.86 | -0.04 | 0.84 | -0.11 | 24 | 19.4 | 4.05 | 18.7 | 2.34 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,400 | $7,000 | 16.4 | 2.9 | 11.1 | -1.9 | 17% | -2% | 0.67 | -0.20 | 0.63 | -0.20 | 16 | 12.7 | 3.74 | 11.8 | 1.68 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $2,800 | $6,500 | 18.0 | -3.2 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 12% | 7% | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 0.33 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.18 | 3.3 | 0.50 | |
| Cody Zeller | $1,000 | $6,500 | 14.4 | -6.7 | 13.5 | -10.1 | 18% | -3% | 0.94 | -0.50 | 0.94 | -0.57 | 6 | 5.1 | 5.10 | 5.1 | 0.78 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game 3 Analysis
Before we get into the plays for tonight, let’s look at what changed for each team in Game 1 and Game 2. The Nuggets rolled out a very similar rotation in each game. The only difference was Bruce Brown getting fourth quarter minutes over Michael Porter in Game 2. The Nuggets actually shot the ball better in Game 2 and they were able to out-rebound the Heat for the second straight game, but they committed 13 turnovers and 21 fouls. After only giving up two free-throw attempts in Game 1, the Nuggets gave up 20 free-throw attempts in Game 2.