NBA DFS Picks Today (11/15): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
We’ve had a weirdly balanced NBA schedule this week, as we’ve got 8 games on the board on the heels of last night’s 10-gamer. Of course, tomorrow we’re back down to just 2 games, so enjoy the balance while it lasts. Tonight’s slate may wind up looking quite similar to Tuesday’s with a whopping 7 teams playing the second halves of back-to-backs.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PF Patrick Williams ($3,900)
DeMar DeRozan will miss tonight’s game at home against the Magic for personal reasons. Not only does this open up some extra usage for Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and Coby White, but it also means we could see Patrick Williams slide back into the starting unit. Williams started the first handful of games this season before he was replaced by Torrey Craig a couple of weeks ago.
Williams’ usage has risen by a slight 1.4% in the minutes he’s played without DeRozan on the floor since the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign. He’s also averaging just 0.77 FP/min. We have him projected to start here and play 30 minutes, which would be his most since logging exactly 30 way back on opening night.
I don’t mind getting to Williams, but he feels like an early-in-the-day type of punt that could fade by the time lock rolls around. We do have ample value elsewhere, and there’s a chance even more opens up later in the day with all of Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Trae Young, and RJ Barrett carrying questionable tags.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
SG/SF Caris LeVert ($6,100)
Cleveland will be a popular destination for lineup builders tonight with Darius Garland having already been ruled out of tonight’s game with a neck injury. Garland missed a few games earlier in the year with a bad hammy, so these aren’t uncharted waters. We’re expecting Caris LeVert to occupy Garland’s vacated starting spot.
Considering Sam Merrill and Craig Porter are the only other guards available with all of Ricky Rubio, Ty Jerome, and Isaac Okoro out, LeVert and Donovan Mitchell should see massive burn tonight in Portland. We have LeVert projected for 36 minutes in an exploitable matchup against that porous Blazer defense.
LeVert has enjoyed a 2.2% usage hike in a hefty 1,220-minute sample with Garland off the floor since the beginning of last year, and he’s averaging a shade south of a fantasy point per minute. Given the expected role, he’s popping as the best point-per-dollar play on the FanDuel slate at $6,100.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG De’Aaron Fox ($8,300 DK, $9,300 FD)
After missing a few games with an ankle injury, De’Aaron Fox made his highly-anticipated return to the Kings’ lineup on Monday night. In related news, the Kings finally looked like the Kings again. Sacramento ran all over the Cavs en route to an easy 132-120 home victory. Tonight, they’ll head south to LA to face a Lakers team playing its second game in as many nights.
Fox played 36 minutes in his first game back, so Mike Brown cares not for your minutes limits. The Kings’ All-Star point guard looked no worse for the wear, scoring a team-high 28 points on efficient 11-for-20 shooting from the field along with 6 assists.
The Lakers have slumped to 16th in defensive rating so far this year, and it’s fair to expect the Kings’ pace to improve moving forward with Fox back in the fold. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a hefty 234.5 total, and Fox looks downright underpriced at only $8,300 on DraftKings. He’s projected for sub-1% ownership for $1,000 more on FanDuel, which makes Fox a fun way to differentiate an otherwise chalky GPP build.
SG/SF Shaedon Sharpe ($7,800 DK, $7,300 FD)
Perhaps Shaedon Sharpe will see his pOWN% rise throughout the day, but he’s not projected to be all that chalky as of this writing. Portland is another team on a back-to-back, and their on-paper matchup against a defense-first Cavs team is admittedly suboptimal. They’re 11-point home underdogs here, so it’s easy to see where things can go south for the Blazers.
Even so, I’m willing to take a stab at Sharpe in tournaments. Portland is still incredibly thin in the backcourt with all of Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, and Malcolm Brogdon out injured. We’ve been chasing that Jerami Grant usage over the past couple of games, but Sharpe’s 2.6% usage boost is even better than Grant’s (+2.4%).
This is really all about the minutes, though. Sharpe leads the league in minutes per game (39.6!), and we have him projected to play another 39 tonight. It’s worth noting he got up to 41 last night in a game the Blazers lost by 16 points. He’s only 20, and the Blazers have no guards left. They might as well see what they have in the former lottery pick, so he appears to be at least somewhat blowout-proof.