NBA DFS Picks Tonight: DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleeper Picks
The first Monday of the 2023-24 NBA season features a monster 11-game slate. As you may expect on a slate of this size, we’ve got a little bit of everything. Both DraftKings and FanDuel feature numerous players priced up above the $10,000 threshold, and it sure looks like we’ll have enough value to make stars-and-scrubs builds happen if we’re so inclined.
There are also a few noteworthy Q tags, with OG Anunoby, Daniel Gafford, and Jaden McDaniels among those listed questionable. With so many games, it also wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see some unexpected names pop up on the injury reports when they’re released later this afternoon.
In this space, I’ll give you a bird’s-eye view of tonight’s 11-game NBA DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Back-to-Back Situations
We only had 6 games go down yesterday, but there are still quite a few teams on the second halves of back-to-backs. The Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Bucks, Hawks, and Trail Blazers were all in action last night, so we could certainly see some rest shenanigans with some of them.
The Lakers’ roster is full of old guys, and this is their first B2B situation of the new year. LeBron James (39) and Anthony Davis (42) both played massive minutes in last night’s OT loss in Sacramento. Given the way the Lakers have already said they’d like to limit James’ minutes if they can, he’s certainly a candidate to get the night off tonight at home against the Magic.
Draymond Green also made his season debut last night after missing the first couple of games with a sprained ankle, while Stephen Curry played through a foot injury after carrying a Q tag into the day. The Dubs are in New Orleans tonight after beating the Rockets yesterday, and we’ve seen this team punt the second halves of back-to-backs countless times over the years. Klay Thompson and Chris Paul are also older players with long injury histories, though neither of them even cracked 30 minutes last night.
The Nuggets, Thunder, Bucks, Blazers, and Hawks were all involved in blowouts, so I’d expect their stars to be well enough to play tonight after nobody really saw a full complement of minutes on Sunday.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Optimizer Value
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PF Jalen Johnson ($5,000)
Jalen Johnson had an up-and-down rookie campaign, but he’s come out on fire to start his sophomore season. After outplaying Saddiq Bey off the bench in the first 2 games, Johnson earned a promotion into the starting unit at Bey’s expense last night in Milwaukee. He paid off Quin Snyder’s trust with a solid 14-point, 7-rebound showing in 26 minutes of action. He picked up his fourth foul of the game early in the third and lost some additional run at the end of Atlanta’s shocking demolition of the Bucks.
We have Johnson projected to start tonight when the Hawks return home to host the T-Wolves. He and Bey are both currently projected for 28 minutes, though we could certainly be a bit light on JJ. He logged 29 and 30 minutes, respectively, in the season’s first 2 games off the bench. Had the game played out a little differently last night, he could’ve easily cracked 30 minutes.
Johnson won’t be a major source of usage on a team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray soaking up so much of it, but he’s still produced at a sparkling 1.15 DK FPPM clip through 3 games. This game features a close spread (ATL +1.5), so here’s hoping we’ll actually see what Johnson’s full rotation looks like assuming he draws another start.
He’s just not priced appropriately for this new role at $5,000 on DraftKings, which is why he’s projecting as one of the better salary savers on the board.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Optimizer Value
SF/PF Royce O’Neale ($4,100)
The Nets will again be shorthanded when they head to Charlotte for a date with the Hornets. Cam Johnson is expected to miss the next week or so, while Nic Claxton is still sidelined with a sprained ankle. On Friday night, we saw Jacque Vaughn go small with a starting unit of Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Ben Simmons, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Cam Thomas. Day’Ron Sharpe Chalk Night did not work out so well, needless to say.
Royce O’Neale still topped 34 minutes in that one despite coming off the bench, and he played most of the fourth quarter over Thomas. He’s not a particularly good per-minute performer (0.75 so far this season), but we’re also getting him at a useful discount on FanDuel. Punts are hard to come by on FD these days, so we have to take what we can get.
There’s some risk here, of course, especially given O’Neale’s current 53.8% ownership projection on FanDuel. That’s…a lot of Royce O’Neale. The issue is there aren’t many obvious alternatives in his price range, though there’s always a good chance we get some unexpected value popping up later in the day.
NBA DFS Sleepers
SF/PF LeBron James ($10,000 FD, $9,100 DK)
As mentioned in the open, there’s no telling if LeBron James will even suit up tonight. The Lakers are playing the long game with an eye on a title run, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see them take their chances with a shorthanded roster in a random October game against Orlando.
If LeBron plays, though, we’re likely to get him at pretty limited ownership. Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all on the slate, and those guys typically attract steady ownership on a nightly basis.
$10,000 on FD for James is a bit steep, but $9,100 on DK still looks light. The DK scoring system suits his all-around game perfectly, and he’s still putting up gaudy per-minute numbers (1.44) at the age of 38. The Lakers are also just 2.5-point favorites here, so there’s a decent chance we get a close game.
If James sits, Anthony Davis ($10,800 FD, $9,600 DK) becomes a very obvious top spend. If we don’t get the news until after the first games lock, AD won’t be nearly as popular as he otherwise would be, either.
PF Paolo Banchero ($7,000 FD, $7,900 DK)
On the other side of the same game, we’ve got Paolo Banchero checking in with reasonable salaries around the industry. The reigning Rookie of the Year has been relatively quiet through Orlando’s first 2 games, but we know there’s more upside here than he’s shown.
Paolo’s usage is down in the 20% range. Last year, he led the team with a 27.9% rate, so there’s nowhere to go but up. He also contributed 1.07 DK FP/min, and he’s down at just 0.93 through a couple of games.
Banchero only took 6 shots in the Magic’s demolition of the Rockets on opening night, and he was held to 28 minutes in a lopsided affair. He shot just 41% across 35 minutes in Orlando’s second game of the year in Portland.
The Lakers should have some tired legs after a long night in Sacramento last night, so they may not be at their best defensively in this one. Banchero looks like a solid midrange forward option that isn’t projected to attract a whole lot of ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel.