NBA DFS Preview | Fantasy Basketball Projections, Optimizer Picks, Lineup Changes, Key Injuries
We’re starting the NBA DFS week with a nice nine-game slate and plenty of news to come as 5 of the 18 teams are on a back-to-back (LAC, PHI, ATL, OKC, LAL). Draymond Green likely returning after battling a back injury for weeks is pretty big news, but the headline for me is Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid as both will be looking to make a big statement in the MVP race. Stephen Curry gets to celebrate his birthday with a gift of a home matchup with the Wizards while we could be looking at some very late late-swaps as four of the nine games tip off at 10PM or later and have some big names with questionable statuses including LaVine, Gobert (closer to P now), VanVleet, and LeBron.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
As mentioned in the opener we see Draymond Green back on NBA Starting Lineups and at $6,900 he won’t be in play for me today especially with the news that he’ll be on a minutes restriction and “brought back slowly”. His return is more relevant to guys like Otto Porter (who should be back after missing a couple games) and Jonathan Kuminga, who have been really strong plays for their prices but now are pretty much unplayable as Green back will make it hard to trust any kind of safe minutes for either. Remember when Klay Thompson was under $6,000 on FD? Me too and it was glorious, but now that he’s up to $6,900 ($7,800 on DK) he is only in GPP consideration for me especially with the return of Dray.
We also see another big man returning from a back injury in Brook Lopez, who we have projected to come off the bench for now. With the uncertainty of the center minutes split neither he or Portis will be on my radar today. The Bucks should also get back George Hill from his neck injury and I’m expecting him to be eased in a bit as well, but this makes Jevon Carter irrelevant and will really help their bench with Connaughton still out and Bembry now out for the season.
The Clippers have a big name missing in Reggie Jackson who is out for rest on the back-to-back after playing 40 minutes and the entire second half yesterday. Look for Terance Mann to start at PG and be a top play especially on DraftKings at just $5,000 ($5,800 on FD). Marcus Morris is also out for rest so there are a lot of minutes available for Amir Coffey and Luke Kennard who are top value plays on every site.
John Collins and Danilo Gallinari will be out for the Hawks tonight which should leave a lot of PF minutes for DeAndre Hunter who is very cheap on both sites while Bogdan Bogdanovic could join the starters and is a solid play at $6,200. This game has a better chance of staying relatively closer now which is good news for Portland and Atlanta players.
Other lineup news of note includes the return of Caris LeVert, the absence of Jarred Vanderbilt which should put Jaden McDaniels in the starting lineup, the absence of Doug McDermott which should put Josh Richardson with the starters, The absence of Aaron Wiggins which should give the start to Theo Maledon or Lindy Waters, and the return of Domantas Sabonis after missing two games.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
As expected for a nine-game slate we have some big news to track in The Situation Room with four big questionable tags of players in 10PM EST or later games. The first is LeBron James, who is on a b2b but did only play 30 minutes last night — I would not be shocked if he ended up sitting. This is the last game of the night at 10:30PM EST so he is a risky play if we don’t learn his status before 10PM as we wouldn’t have three other games to swap players in from. Westbrook is priced up over $9k on DK, but he would be in play for me on FD at $7,600 while Monk, Reaves, and Anthony would be nice swap options as well if James sits.
Also in that last game Fred VanVleet is questionable with his knee soreness. In the last game VanVleet missed both Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam went for over 54 FP so this will be important news in what should be a close, high-scoring game with the Lakers. If VanVleet plays I won’t be looking to target any Raptors really, but if we learn he is out I’d consider getting in at least one of Barnes or Siakam and even Gary Trent.
In the 10PM window of games we have Rudy Gobert questionable with a left foot sprain although he just said he’s “planning to play” and Zach LaVine questionable with left knee soreness. After going for almost 50 FP last game with Gobert out Hassan Whiteside is priced up a little bit but would still be squarely in play, especially at just $5,400 on DK ($6,100 on FD) if Gobert sits another game. Coby White should draw the start if LaVine gets ruled out and is a solid option at $5,300 after going with over 30 FP in 35+ minutes last game in a nice matchup with the Kings. Dosunmu and Green would be decent value plays as well while DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic would have to carry most of the offense if LaVine sits.
The Cavaliers have a trio of questionable tags in Caris LeVert, Lauri Markkanen, and Dean Wade, but luckily they play in the first game we’ll know their starters before lock. It would take both Markkanen and Wade being out for me to strongly consider Kevin Love or Cedi Osman while the status of LeVert will also have an impact on the usage of everyone. LeVert being available would make it harder to expect a ceiling game for Darius Garland, but if LeVert and one or both of the other questionable bigs sit I might find myself using a couple Cavs in my main build.
UPDATE: LeVert and Markkanen are IN. Wade is OUT
Other injury news of note includes Andrew Wiggins dealing with “general illness” with Poole, Moody, or Porter likely starting for him; Patrick Beverley dealing with an ear contusion whose absence would likely put Malik Beasley in the starting lineup and give a slight usage bump to Russell; Justin Holiday also dealing with an illness and if out should give Donte DiVincenzo a starting role at a great price; And Jordan McLaughlin, Naz Reid, Trent Forrest, and Alex Len all with questionable statuses but not much DFS relevancy.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
A couple of teams are standing out on FanDuel with the Clippers and Trail Blazers looking like the teams to go to for value today. With Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris sitting on the b2b I will be using at least two of Terance Mann ($5,800), Amir Coffey ($3,900), and Luke Kennard ($4,200), who project to all see 30+ minutes and are just way too cheap for that kind of usage bump. Assuming newly signed Kris Dunn is available Portland should have 11 available today but stuck with a pretty tight 8-man rotation last game and FanDuel did not adjust their prices enough. Brandon Williams at $5,000 should be the highest owned PG likely to see 35+ minutes again while Drew Eubanks at $4,300 will definitely be in my cash lineup and I’m expecting the majority of others’ today coming off a 40 FP game in 38+ minutes. After dropping over 70 FP last game Josh Hart price increased a whole $600 up to $6,500 and although we know he could come crashing down to sub 20 FP like his two previous games before the explosion I will still be on him for that price with the hope he goes for the expected 35+ FP. If you’re looking to get a 4th Trail Blazer in your lineup then Trendon Watford should remain solid at under $6k coming off a 44 FP game in 38+ minutes. Overall most of my FanDuel cash lineup will consist of Clippers and Trail Blazers as they are just priced wrong for their expected roles. Some other players that I’m looking at and are priced just a little too cheap include Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Miles Bridges, Jakob Poeltl, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and DAngelo Russell.
DraftKings is a bit more interesting today as the Portland players mentioned above are priced correctly for their respective roles and will be much harder to use. I won’t be on Josh Hart for $8,800 even with his 70+ FP upside as I will gladly spend that kind of salary on guys who put up 60+ FP much more consistently, while Brandon Williams is also a bit too expensive for me at $6,500 as there are more consistent options in that price range. Drew Eubanks at $5,600 will probably be the only Trail Blazer I consider on DK today, but even that price doesn’t make me too excited. We do have the Clippers in play who are priced even cheaper than FD and I will 100% have Amir Coffey and Terance Mann on my team and possibly Kennard as well. After those three there isn’t much other value standing out to me so hopefully we get some injury news early in the day that opens some more options up. One name that you can consider is Precious Achiuwa who drew the start last game and we are assuming will again tonight and although he’ll likely see under 23 minutes he should pay off his $3,900 price tag and help you fit in Nikola Jokic and another stud or two you like. If Zach LaVine sits I will also consider Alex Caruso at $4,200 coming off a 28 FP game in 29 minutes. Other DK names I’m keeping in mind today are Josh Richardson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, DeAndre Hunter, Lindy Waters, Darius Bazley, Javonte Green, and if Rudy Gobert or Justin Holiday sit I’d consider Hassan Whiteside and Donte DiVincenzo respectively.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn