NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/15/22
Today’s main slate locks at 8PM EST with four games that should all be pretty competitive as the largest spread at the moment is just -4. The Heat and Clippers are on a back-to-back so Kawhi Leonard will likely be out while the Heat could be without a few guys but we’ll find out officially once their injury reports come out later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Devin Booker is questionable to return from his hamstring tightness and if he returns it would make all the other starters harder to trust for ceiling games as they’d take big usage hits. If Booker remains out look for Landry Shamet to draw the start and be a top value play as he went for 28 FP in 31 minutes last game as a starter. (Update: Booker is IN)
- Deandre Ayton is questionable with an ankle sprain and if out we’d likely see Bismack Biyombo draw the start at C with Jock Landale backing him up. Biyombo started a few games earlier this year and saw over 23 minutes only once so just know he’s a volatile play likely to see 20-25 minutes but has the ability to pay off his price especially at $3,600 on DK. Ayton sitting would also make Bridges and Craig much more appealing plays. (Update: Ayton is OUT)
- Ivica Zubac hurt his knee yesterday and is questionable today. If he ends up out it would probably be Moses Brown starting at C with Batum, Morris, Covington, and Diabate all helping to cover the PF/C minutes but Brown would be a viable value play if confirmed starting. Luke Kennard is also questionable so Mann and Coffey would handle most of his minutes if out.
- Jabari Smith is questionable with an illness and if out KJ Martin would likely start for him and be a solid value play while Eason would see more minutes and Sengun would have a higher ceiling. (Update: Jabari is IN)
- At 2:30PM EST the Heat listed Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, and Nikola Jovic as questionable while ruling out Lowry, Oladipo, and Dedmon. If Adebayo ends up out we would see either Jovic (if active) or Orlando Robinson start at C while Haslem would have to help there as well. If Martin ends up out I’d expect Highsmith to start for him. Jovic being out is only relevant if Adebayo is also out as they’d be down to Haslem and Orlando Robinson for centers. (Update: Bam is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Dewayne Dedmon, and Gabe Vincent so Herro, Butler, and Adebayo (if active) will carry most of the offense while Max Strus should join the starting five.
- Jrue Holiday remains out with his illness so Jevon Carter should draw another start and is a decent value play while Middleton and Giannis get usage bumps and will have to carry even more of the offense again.
- With Leonard out for LAC we should see Nicolas Batum draw the start and he has been excellent over his last six games going for 25+ FP in all but one. Paul George and Reggie Jackson are also out for LAC now so John Wall will almost certainly start at PG while Mann or Coffey likely start for George. Overall the Clippers starters are all in play now and are looking at big time usage rates especially if Zubac and/or Kennard also end up out.
- Jose Alvarado will join Brandon Ingram on the sidelines for New Orleans so some combo of Daniels, Graham, and Lewis will help backup McCollum at PG while Trey Murphy will continue to start for Ingram.
- Collin Sexton and Simone Fontecchio remain out for Utah so Malik Beasley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker remain their top bench guards.
- Cameron Payne is out for Phoenix so Landry Shamet and Damion Lee will get most of his minutes and both can help backup CP3.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Lowry and Oladipo out, Jimmy Butler ($9,600) will be the first guy I’m locking in as he’s on 3 days rest after sitting yesterday has easy 50+ FP upside in this matchup with HOU. Caleb Martin ($5,000) disappointed yesterday going for only 15 FP in 33 minutes but I’d expect him to see closer to 40 minutes if he plays through his Q tag while Tyler Herro ($7,700) is also a top target today looking at huge minutes having to play more point with Lowry out.
- With Alvarado out for the Pelicans I’d consider CJ McCollum ($7,500) a value at that price as he’ll have to get more time at PG with his top backup out and draws a great matchup with Utah in the highest projected game total of the slate. Trey Murphy ($5,500) is my 2nd favorite p/$ play from New Orleans as he’s at his cheapest price in over two weeks and still has 30+ FP upside with Ingram out.
- Torrey Craig ($5,200) has been solid since returning from his groin injury four games ago as he’s increased his FP production in each game including a 33.4 FP performance last game and he is looking at a bigger role now that Ayton is out.
- Nicolas Batum ($5,100) will likely start for Leonard today and is a solid option who has been going for 5-7x value over his last six games. John Wall ($5,900), Terance Mann ($5,000), and Marcus Morris ($4,900) are all in play now as well with George and Jackson also ruled out.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jimmy Butler ($8,700) is $900 cheaper than FD and is at “free square” level today especially if Adebayo ends up out while Tyler Herro ($8,000) also has mega upside in this matchup. On the other side of that game I really like the price of Jalen Green ($6,600) who is $500 cheaper than FD and has gone for over 40 FP in three of his last four games while Eric Gordon ($4,000) is a fine value target who should have a 4-5x value floor.
- CJ McCollum ($7,200) remains too cheap with Alvarado and Ingram out and will also be in my main DK build while Trey Murphy ($5,000) is at his cheapest price since 11/28 and is a solid play for more cheap Pelicans exposure.
- Bismack Biyombo ($3,600) is a solid value play but does have some low floor risk while Torrey Craig ($5,500) is pricier than FD and went up $800 on DK since last game but I’d still consider him a solid play especially with Ayton out.
- Nicolas Batum ($4,400) should be a very popular value play on DK at that price while John Wall ($5,600), Terance Mann ($4,400), and Marcus Morris ($5,100) are all solid value plays as well. Moses Brown ($3,000) is someone to keep in mind if Zubac gets ruled out.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn