NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/27/22
We have a rare 10-game Tuesday slate with eight games tipping off before 9PM while the final two games tip off at 10PM and just happen to have the two highest game totals currently. The Pacers, Rockets, Clippers, Spurs, and Hornets are all on a back-to-back so we’ll get their injury reports later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Domantas Sabonis has an avulsion fracture in his right thumb but is still questionable today (looking more doubtful now after missing shootaround) and with him playing in the last game of the night make sure to leave yourself swap options in case he’s out. With Sabonis off the floor this season DeAaron Fox scores an additional .18 FPPM and would be a much more appealing play with Sabonis out and they have a few options to replace him at center with Alex Len being a strong candidate to start while Holmes, Queta, Lyles, and Metu can all help at C as well.
- Jalen Brunson is questionable with hip soreness and if out I’d expect Immanuel Quickley to start at PG and he’d be a top value play on all sites. Miles McBride and Derrick Rose would also help more at PG while Barrett and Randle would get usage bumps and have even higher ceilings.
- Aaron Gordon is now questionable for Denver so MPJ, Nnaji, and Cancar would have to play most of the PF minutes if Gordon sits while Murray and Jokic would have to carry even more of the offense.
- Keldon Johnson and Doug McDermott are questionable so the other forwards would get minutes bumps if they sit while Vassell would be a more appealing play if Keldon sits.
- Deni Avdija has missed the last couple games but is questionable today. If he remains out the Wizards could go with Gafford at C to matchup with Embiid and slide Kuzma/Porzingis to the forward spots while Kispert and Barton would absorb some of Avdija’s minutes too.
- DeAndre Hunter is questionable with an ankle sprain and if out Bogdan Bogdanovic would start at SF and be a decent mid-range play while AJ Griffin would get more forwards minutes too.
- For now we can assume Dennis Smith is questionable after being listed that way yesterday and getting ruled out, and if he remains out today then Oubre and Maledon would be the top bench guards.
- Robert Williams and Payton Pritchard are questionable for Boston with Pritchard not being relevant while Williams sitting would make Horford a more appealing play.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Devin Booker is out after hurting his groin again last game and Landry Shamet is also out with achilles soreness so I’d expect Damion Lee to start at SG tonight and be a solid value play with not much guard depth behind him and Paul. Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul will have to carry most of the offense today and have much higher ceilings with no Booker and Shamet.
- Clint Capela hurt his calf again and is out today so Onyeka Okongwu likely starts at C and is a solid play for the price while John Collins is starting to see around 30 minutes after being eased in from his injury and is a more appealing play with no Capela.
- John Wall will rest on the b2b so Jackson and Mann will handle most of the PG minutes while Kawhi Leonard returns to Toronto and will carry most of the offense with Paul George who will play on the b2b.
- Eric Gordon is also out on the b2b for rest so look for KJ Martin to start and be a decent value play while Eason and Mathews will absorb some of Gordon’s minutes too.
- Curry, Wiggins, J. Green, and Iguodala remain out for the Warriors so Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo should continue to start in one of the best matchups of the slate at home against a Charlotte team on a b2b.
- Finney-Smith, Green, and Kleber remain out for Dallas for look for Reggie Bullock and Christian Wood to continue to start at PF/C with Bertans and Powell as their top backups.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- It’s getting comical how LaMelo Ball ($8,900) remains under $9k after another almost 50 FP game last night and even though he’s on a b2b he’s still playing in one of the highest game totals of the night against Golden State and is just too cheap for the upside he brings every game.
- There are some great center options tonight with Nikola Jokic ($12,400) the obvious highest upside play and I will always try to fit him in first especially as he’s playing in the highest projected game total of the night against SAC. If the rest of your favorite build requires a cheaper center then I’d go with Deandre Ayton ($8,200) as he brings 50+ FP upside with Booker and Shamet out as he, Paul, and Bridges are really going to have to bring the offense tonight if they want to stay competitive with Memphis.
- Even cheaper centers to consider today include Alperen Sengun ($6,500), Onyeka Okongwu ($5,800), and Thomas Bryant ($5,900) and I’d rank them in that order as far as the safest floor/ceiling combos.
- Paolo Banchero ($7,900) dropped $400 since his last game and with four games over 43 FP in his last seven and a great matchup with the Lakers I’d strongly consider him in cash games at either SF or PF.
- I’d also strongly consider going with at least one or two Warriors in cash games as they’re currently sitting at the second highest projected team total of the slate against Charlotte so Klay Thompson ($7,500), Jordan Poole ($8,300), and Draymond Green ($6,800) bring immense upside today while Donte DiVincenzo ($6,000) is still a solid play too.
- For extreme value today I’m looking at Damion Lee ($4,400) and KJ Martin ($4,200) as likely starters who should have a 4-5x floor while Malik Monk ($4,600) and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,200) are also guys to consider.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Deandre Ayton ($7,500), Chris Paul ($8,000), and Damion Lee ($4,400) remain my favorite Suns players for the price and I will likely use at least one or two of them in my main build.
- LaMelo Ball ($9,600) actually dropped $600 in price from yesterday so he’s definitely in play for cash games and I also really like PJ Washington ($5,200) from Charlotte as he’s at his cheapest salary of the season even after going for over 38 FP in his last two games.
- Klay Thompson ($7,000) and Draymond Green ($5,900) are my top targets for Warriors exposure today and also in those last two games of the night I’m really liking the price of Jamal Murray ($7,100) who should be closer to $8k after going for 58.5 and 46.75 FP in his last two games.
- All the Rockets starters look underpriced today and although I’m not saying to stack them or anything, I would definitely consider one or two of them for cash games like Jalen Green ($6,700) who is at his cheapest salary in over a month, Jabari Smith ($5,000) coming off b2b games over 33 FP, Alperen Sengun ($5,800) coming off a 53+ FP game and dropped $400 in price, and KJ Martin ($4,500) who should start with Gordon getting a rest day. The matchup against Boston should lower their ownership too so they do make for a strong GPP stack if you don’t want to use any in your main build.
- SAS/OKC has some nice value too as Jeremy Sochan ($4,100) is $1k cheaper than FD and brings 30+ FP upside while Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,300) should have a solid 5-6x floor and brings an 8-10x ceiling at that price.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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