NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/1/23
February is kicking off with a big eight game slate instead of the scheduled nine, as the Wizards/Pistons game has been officially postponed due to weather-related flight issues for Detroit. No teams are on a back-to-back so we have everyone’s first injury report and just a handful of impactful questionable players currently. The Grizzlies could get some guard reinforcements as Bane, Konchar, and Green are all questionable to return today, and if you’re in to narratives at all, Kyrie Irving is back in Boston and with Durant and Simmons out, he is looking at a huge usage rate and monster ceiling even before the revenge juices start flowing.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid is questionable with his foot soreness again, and with three games in five days coming up including two pretty weak opponents in the Magic and Spurs today and Friday before a tougher stretch of games, this could be a spot where they give the big guy a game off. If that ends up happening then Harrell would likely start at C with Tucker and Reed getting bumps in C minutes too, while Harden would get a 6% usage bump and other guys like Harris, Melton, and Maxey would all see usage bumps of 3-5%.
- Wendell Carter is also questionable in that Philly game, and if out the Magic could start Moe Wagner, Bol Bol, or Mo Bamba at center, with Wagner being the highest upside play of the group as he’s gone for over 30 FP in b2b games. With Carter (and Okeke) off the floor none of the Magic players see significant enough usage bumps for this news to impact their ownership. Jonathan Isaac is also questionable and if out his limited minutes would be handled by the other forwards.
- Desmond Bane, John Konchar, and Danny Green are all questionable for Memphis, so if any combo of that group end up playing it would take Brooks off the DFS radar, while Bane returning would lower the usage of the other starters and move Ziaire Williams back to the bench. If Bane remains out then Morant keeps his higher ceiling and the other Grizzlies starters are more appealing plays.
- Rudy Gobert and Taurean Prince are questionable again, so Naz Reid would likely start if Gobert sits and be a top value play of the slate, while Prince’s minutes would be handled by McDaniels, Anderson, and the other available forwards.
- Romeo Langford is questionable again after missing the last four games, so Keita Bates-Diop would likely keep starting if he remains out, while Richardson and Branham would get more minutes at the SG/SF spots.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Rockets will once again be without Kevin Porter and Jalen Green, so Daishen Nix will likely start at PG while KJ Martin should continue to start as well.
- Ben Simmons and TJ Warren remain out for Brooklyn along with Durant, so look for Seth Curry to draw another start while Watanabe and Sharpe will remain key rotation pieces for Warren.
- Marcus Smart remains out for Boston so Derrick White should continue to start and Brogdon should continue to see 30+ minutes off the bench.
- Precious Achiuwa should continue to start at C with Anunoby out, while Jaylin Williams is today’s best guess at OKC’s starting center but it could be Kenrich Williams or Mike Muscala too, and Aaron Wiggins will likely start again for Lu Dort who remains out.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Rockets are a team I’m looking to target in cash games today, as they have 5-6 in guys in play depending on your positional needs with Porter and Green out opening up a ton of usage. My top targets are Eric Gordon ($5,000) and Alperen Sengun ($8,300), as they see an additional .28 and .16 FPPM respectively with Porter and Green off the floor, and Gordon sees a +9.1% usage bump and Sengun scores a team high 1.39 FPPM. Jabari Smith ($6,100) and KJ Martin ($5,700) are both in play for cash games as well, while Tari Eason ($5,700) and JaeSean Tate ($4,100) are more GPP plays for me today.
- The Thunder have one of the higher projected team totals today going against HOU, so I like getting at least one of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) or Josh Giddey ($7,800) in your main build, while Jalen Williams ($6,000) does come with some volatility in production but should thrive in a pace up matchup today if you need an SG/SF in his price range.
- Seth Curry ($4,600) dropped $600 in salary from last game in which he stunk it up going 3 for 16 from the field and 0 for 5 from three while playing just 21 minutes, but I like going back to him today at a reduced salary and likely reduced ownership after that last game. Curry is too good of a shooter to repeat that performance, and unless the Nets get blown out I’m expecting him to see 30+ minutes as the likely starter for Simmons and he should have around a 5x value floor.
- The Kings have the highest projected total of the slate, and DeAaron Fox ($8,600) remains underpriced considering the matchup with the Spurs. Fox deserves to be over $9k in salary with five games of 44-54 FP in his last seven, and with his price bumping $100 since last game this could be the last chance we get can play him for under $9k in a long time, and he’ll likely make my main build tonight. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer currently running where I’d recommend betting the over on Fox’s line of 26.5 points and 6.5 assists there today.
- GSW/MIN is another game I want exposure to as it has the closest spread of the highest game totals today, so at least one of Anthony Edwards ($9,500), DAngelo Russell ($7,000), or Kyle Anderson ($6,300) will likely be in my cash game lineup for MIN. Stephen Curry ($10,100), Klay Thompson ($7,500), or Draymond Green ($7,100) are who I’m looking at for GSW depending on positional needs and salary available as we learn more news later today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Eric Gordon ($5,300), Alperen Sengun ($8,800), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,200), and Josh Giddey ($7,700) remain some of my top plays of the slate on DK, while the forwards in the $5k-$6k range for OKC and HOU are all strong targets too.
- DeAaron Fox ($8,200) dropped $100 in salary from last game and is at one of his cheapest salaries of the season today, so he will definitely make my cash game lineup. The PF’s in SAC/SAS are also looking like great plays for the price as Keegan Murray ($5,100) and Jeremy Sochan ($5,200) have been very consistent 25+ FP guys lately and both have 30+ FP upside today in the highest projected game total of the slate. Jakob Poeltl ($5,500) is also in cash game consideration at his lowest salary of the season after dropping $300 since last game.
- Paolo Banchero ($6,700) is someone standing out to me on DK, as he’s now at his lowest price of the season after dropping $100 since last game in which he had the same matchup against Philly that he does today. Banchero went for almost 50 FP against Philly a couple days ago, and there’s a chance Carter and Isaac will be out as both are currently questionable which would give Banchero an even higher ceiling at a phenomenal price tag, so take advantage of this season-low salary and $900 discount to his FD price.
- More guys I’m liking for cheap today include Markelle Fultz ($5,800), Precious Achiuwa ($5,700), Walker Kessler ($5,700), Mike Conley ($5,600), Kyle Anderson ($5,600), Josh Hart ($5,100), and Seth Curry ($5,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn