NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/27/23
Just four games today that all start at 8PM EST or earlier, so we should have all the injury news before lock as no teams are on a b2b. Jaylen Brown is the biggest name already out, while the Pistons will be without Bogdanovic, Duren and Ivey, and could be without Stewart too as he’s questionable. The Heat are the only other team with a questionable player as Herro is dealing with a rib contusion, while Charlotte will likely be without PJ Washington again.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- With Tyler Herro questionable for Miami, Max Strus would likely start if Herro sits, and I’d be much more interested in Butler and Adebayo if Herro is out. (Update: Herro is IN)
- The Pistons currently have 10 players available, and could be down to 9 if Stewart ends up out as he’s questionable. Marvin Bagley or Livers would likely start at PF if Stewart sits, with Bagley being the better play as he’s already a strong play regardless of Stewart’s status. (Update: Stewart is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Derrick White will likely start for Jaylen Brown who is out for personal reasons, which will also give more minutes to Malcolm Brogdon and Grant Williams, and Smart and Tatum have higher ceilings today.
- With Lowry still out for Miami look for Gabe Vincent to continue to start, and until we hear otherwise I’d expect Kevin Love to continue to start at PF for them.
- Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren are out for Detroit, so James Wiseman will almost certainly start at center while Alec Burks is a likely candidate to start at SG, although they could go with Diallo. With Bogdanovic now out too I’d expect Livers or Diallo to start at SF today.
- JT Thor will likely start at PF again with PJ Washington doubtful, and Bryce McGowens will be available off the bench after signing a four year contract.
- The last game of the night will have two bench forwards out as Larry Nance and Jonathan Isaac are dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries respectively.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- DET/CHA is the top game to target today, as it’s currently sitting at a 235 total and no other game is above 227 right now. Injuries and guys out on both teams will also open up more usage and value, so I’m starting my cash game lineups with a bunch of guys in this game, and LaMelo Ball ($10,300) is a priority as his price actually went down $100 from last game, and he’s too cheap for someone with three games over 60 FP in his last four games. Mark Williams ($6,600) is my next target from CHA, as he has a much higher ceiling with Washington likely out, and draws a nice matchup today with 45+ FP upside.
- After LaMelo, I’m loading up on Pistons guys and will likely have 3-4 of them in my main build, especially with Bogdanovic now out. Killian Hayes ($5,400) should be looking at 35+ minutes with Ivey out and is at one of his cheapest salaries of the season, while Alec Burks ($5,000) should easily see 27-33 minutes especially if he draws the start. Marvin Bagley ($4,900) returned last game and went off for almost 45 FP in 27 minutes, and should be looking at at least that many minutes today with Duren out, and potentially a lot more if Stewart also ends up out. James Wiseman ($4,800) is also super cheap and draws one of the best matchups for centers, but he is 4th on my Pistons priority list as he hasn’t seen over 23 minutes in his first three games with Detroit, but if Stewart is out he could be pressed in to 25+ minutes and comes at a great price.
- There should be enough value from Detroit to easily get Jayson Tatum ($11,000) in your cash game lineup, as he offers one of the highest ceilings of the slate with Brown out, while Derrick White ($6,900) and Malcolm Brogdon ($6,300) are also in play as they both see usage bumps of 3.6% and 2.8% respectively with Brown out, bringing their FPPM’s to over 1.05 each.
- Brandon Ingram ($8,200) is another guy that should be easy to fit in to cash games, and should have a 5x value floor against Orlando in the 2nd closest projected spread of the slate, and Nance being out can only help his minutes and usage. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over 26.5 points line for Ingram there today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Killian Hayes ($4,700) and Alec Burks ($3,500) are just way too cheap for their projected roles today, and both should be two of the highest-owned players in DK cash games. Marvin Bagley ($4,500) is also looking like a cash game lock at that price, and his ownership will certainly skyrocket if Stewart gets ruled out. James Wiseman ($3,700) will almost certainly pay off that salary today even if he only gets around 23 minutes, so right now It’s looking like four Pistons in my main build as their prices kind of force you in to it and it will make it super easy to fit in a couple high priced studs.
- Speaking of high priced studs, LaMelo Ball ($10,300) remains too cheap and is a lock for cash games today, along with Jayson Tatum ($10,200) who is at his lowest salary since January 1st. Mark Williams ($5,900) remains at great price given his higher ceiling with Washington likely out, and Terry Rozier ($6,800) is at his cheapest salary since Jan 8th, and I prefer using him on DK over FD today for more CHA exposure.
- Marcus Smart ($5,500), Derrick White ($5,500), and Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700) are going to be hard to choose from since they are priced so similarly and all bring 40+ FP ceilings today with Brown out, so I may end up using none and just loading up the guards from DET/CHA, and letting others gamble on which of those three will have the big game for BOS.
- Paolo Banchero ($7,100), Wendell Carter ($6,500), and Markelle Fultz ($6,200) all come at discounts to FD and are some of my favorite GPP plays, as their ownership should be crazy low compared to guys from DET/CHA. Brandon Ingram ($8,000) remains a strong cash game play in that game, while Josh Richardson ($5,400) is $800 cheaper than FD and is a much better play for the price on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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