NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/28/23
We’re ending February with a big ten game slate starting at 7:30 PM EST, and we currently have all the teams’ initial injury reports as there are no teams on a back-to-back. The Rockets are on the front end of a b2b and will rest Tate, but they will get back Jalen Green and possibly Kevin Porter too. The biggest news of the day is LeBron James who could miss multiple weeks with a foot injury, and with Russell likely still out as well, it’s going to be the Anthony Davis show today and for the foreseeable future. Other big news includes the likely availability of Giannis, the unlikely availability of Porzingis, and lots of guard news including SGA/Curry still out, Clarkson out along with Sexton still, questionable tags for Fox, Murray, and Porter, and VanVleet/Green both returning.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- DeAaron Fox is questionable with wrist soreness, and if out Davion Mitchell would likely start and even though he’s super cheap, I don’t think he’s as much of a must play as he’ll probably project as. Monk and Davis are too involved for Mitchell to have a massive ceiling, and there’s going to be some other much better value out there today, so if Fox sits I think it boosts Sabonis’ upside the most, and would put Malik Monk in to GPP consideration.
- Jamal Murray is questionable with lower back pain, so we could see Reggie Jackson make his first start for Denver if Murray sits, and he would be a very strong value play against Houston. With Murray (and Hyland) off the floor this season Aaron Gordon actually benefits the most, seeing a 4.5% usage bump while scoring an additional .21 FPPM.
- Kevin Porter is questionable to return from his foot contusion, and if available I will likely just avoid this Houston team today as they’re already getting back Jalen Green, are 10.5 point underdogs to Denver, and the combo of their priced up salaries and usage hits with Porter/Green back just don’t excite me with plenty of higher upside teams out there today. If Porter remains out we could see Washington remain a starter or they could go with Green at PG and start Christopher at SG, but I’d still not be looking to use any HOU guys in cash games.
- Ivica Zubac is questionable with a calf strain that has cost him the last two games, so Mason Plumlee should continue to start if Zubac needs more time. Plumlee hasn’t cracked over 26 minutes as a starter the last two games, so I won’t be looking to use him with better p/$ centers out there today.
- Monte Morris missed last game and is questionable today with lower back soreness, and if out Delon Wright would likely start again and be a decent value play in a pace-up revenge game with ATL. (Update: Morris is OUT)
- Tre Jones is questionable, and if out Branham and Graham would get most of the backcourt minutes again with KBD likely continuing to start.
- Maxi Kleber & Jaylen Nowell are a couple questionable bench guys today whose minutes would just be absorbed by other bench guys if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With LeBron out, Troy Brown is a strong candidate to start for him, although they could go with Austin Reaves, while Dennis Schroder will almost certainly start until Russell returns.
- The Bucks could go a couple different ways as far as who starts between Carter, Middleton, and Connaughton, but for now we’re going with Middleton as they’re getting crowded at the forward spot off the bench.
- Jordan Clarkson is out today joining Sexton, so Kris Dunn should start at PG and is one of my favorite plays of the slate as he’s super cheap on both sites, could see 30+ minutes, and draws the same matchup as last game in which he went for over 40 FP in just 23 minutes.
- VanVleet is back for TOR so Trent likely goes back to the bench, Porzingis is likely out for the Wizards so Avdija should start again, SGA remains out for OKC so Joe should continue to start, and Wiggins remains out for GSW so DiVincenzo likely remains a starter.
- A couple lineup notes worth monitoring are who starts between Clarke and Tillman for Memphis, and who starts between Holiday and Green for Dallas.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Clarkson & Sexton out for Utah, Kris Dunn ($4,500) should start at PG, and I think he’s just too cheap for the combo of his matchup with the Spurs and the 35+ FP upside he has today, and he will be the first guy I lock in to cash games. Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,900) is also a very strong play and should have a 5x value floor today, so depending on how other news breaks he’ll likely make my cash game lineup at either SG or SF.
- Dennis Schroder ($5,500) is at his lowest salary in over a month, and he was already a strong play with Russell out and LeBron in, but with LeBron also out now Schroder is going to have to carry a lot more of the offense and he is a top value play of the slate looking at 35+ minutes, assuming the Lakers can stay competitive with Memphis. Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,800), Malik Beasley ($5,200), and whoever starts between Brown and Reaves are all in play for value too depending on your salary and positional needs.
- With SGA still out for OKC, Lu Dort ($5,700) remains a strong play in a projected high scoring, competitive game with SAC, while Isaiah Joe ($5,300) and Jalen Williams ($6,100) are still at prices that keep them in cash game consideration.
- More p/$ plays I like on FD currently include Kyle Anderson ($5,800), Malaki Branham ($5,700), Cameron Johnson ($5,500), Matisse Thybulle ($4,200), and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,100).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Kris Dunn ($3,600) is today’s free square as he’s currently projected for over 9x value and no one else is over a 7x value projection, so fade Dunn at your own risk in cash games. Dennis Schroder ($4,900) is also way too cheap given his role with LBJ out and Russell likely out, and I’m expecting he and Dunn to be two of the highest owned cash game plays on DK today. Check out our Boom Fantasy bonus code for new signups, where I’d recommend betting the over 24.5 pts+rebs+asts line for Schroder there today.
- Daniel Gafford ($4,500) is popping as a top p/$ play, as he’s $1,500 cheaper than FD, and has a higher ceiling with Porzingis likely out as shown by his 36.75 performance last game without him. At his current salary Gafford only needs about 25 FP to be worth it, and with a 35+ FP ceiling I think he’s just a bit too cheap given the floor/ceiling combo he offers today.
- Lu Dort ($5,000), Isaiah Joe ($4,400), Malik Beasley ($4,500), and Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,100) are some of my favorite cheap wings today all looking at increased roles, and for under $4k I’d consider Troy Brown ($3,100), Austin Reaves ($3,400), Jaylin Williams ($3,900), and Matisse Thybulle ($3,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images