NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/3/23
I’m calling today “Frugal Friday” as some new names being out has opened up a bunch of great cheap plays. The Hornets and Pacers are on a back-to-back, so look for their first injury reports later. This is already shaping up to be a big “stars and scrubs” type day as far as lineup construction, and we still have some big questionable guys that could open up even more value if they end up out.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid is questionable with his foot soreness again, and if there was ever a game for him to rest it would be today against a depleted Spurs team who are 10 point underdogs to Philly. If Embiid sits look for Montrezl Harrell to draw the start at center, while James Harden would see a big usage bump and have an elite ceiling today, especially the day after getting snubbed from the All-Star game for some extra motivation.
- Rudy Gobert is questionable with groin soreness, and we saw the upside Naz Reid brings when Gobert sits after going for over 50 FP last game. If Gobert is out again I will be firing up Reid in all formats, and Anthony Edwards would get a nice ceiling boost as he scores an additional .15 FPPM this season with Gobert (and KAT/McLaughlin) off the floor. Taurean Prince is also questionable, and his minutes would just be absorbed by the other available forwards if out.
- Jabari Smith is questionable with a hip pointer, and if out Tari Eason would likely start at PF and have a huge ceiling as he went for around 50 FP in just 19 minutes last game. With Porter, Green, and Smith off the floor this season Eric Gordon sees a +8% usage bump and scores an additional .26 FPPM making him a great mid-range target if Smith ends up out.
- Tyrese Haliburton is questionable on the b2b, and if out TJ McConnell would likely start at PG and the other starters would get nice usage bumps and be more appealing plays. Daniel Theis is also questionable but his limited minutes would just be handled by the other bigs if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- DeAaron Fox is out today for personal reasons, so Davion Mitchell will likely start at PG and be a popular value play. The biggest beneficiary of Fox sitting has been Malik Monk this year, as he sees the highest usage bump at +4.5% for a team high 30.4% usage rate, and is a great pivot off of Mitchell for a bit more salary but a much higher ceiling.
- With Jusuf Nurkic hurting his calf again and out today, Drew Eubanks should start at C for Portland and is a solid value play today. He likely won’t see over 30 minutes, but at his current salaries he is definitely worth the 30+ FP upside he brings as a starter.
- The Spurs are down three starters today as Jeremy Sochan, Tre Jones, and Romeo Langford are all out. Keita Bates-Diop should be a lock to start while Josh Richardson & Malaki Branham are likely candidates to start at the guard spots. Right now I’m considering Branham close to a must play at his current salaries likely to see 30+ minutes, while Josh Richardson would also be a lock for me if he starts. Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl will be heavily involved as well as they score 1.30 and 1.39 FPPM respectively on the year with the available Spurs players today.
- Kevin Porter and Jalen Green remain out for Houston, so Daishen Nix should continue to start at PG, and on most slates he would be a solid value play coming off a 25 FP game in 32 minutes, but there’s just safer floor value plays available today that he won’t be on my radar outside of GPPs.
- Cam Johnson will sit for rest on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b, so Dario Saric is a likely candidate to start for him, while Craig, Wainright, and Okogie will all help cover Johnson’s minutes along with Saric.
- Wendell Carter is now out, so Mo Bamba will start at center for Orlando, and Paolo Banchero is a slightly more appealing play.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting with the Kings today in cash games as they draw a great matchup with the Pacers and have some great DFS targets with Fox out. Domantas Sabonis ($9,900) will have to carry a lot of the offense today in a revenge game with Indy and is my favorite spend up of the slate, while Davion Mitchell ($3,800) is just way too cheap if he draws the start as he should have a 5x value floor and allows you to fit in more expensive guys. Malik Monk ($5,300) is also squarely in play coming off b2b games of 30+ FP in over 30 minutes in each game, and now will have to be even more involved with Fox out giving him a really nice floor/ceiling combination for the price. Check out our Boom Fantasy promo code for new signups, and I’d recommend betting the over 43.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts line for Sabonis there today.
- Drew Eubanks ($4,600) dropped from $5.7k to $4.4k before Wednesday’s game, and proceeded to go for over 32 FP in 23 minutes after Nurkic got hurt, and with his price going up only $200 since then I’d consider him one of the top value plays of the slate as the likely starter with Nurkic out. Damian Lillard ($10,200) and Anfernee Simons ($6,400) are also strong plays for POR.
- With three starters out for the Spurs, Josh Richardson ($5,500) should be the primary ball-handler and is an excellent cash game target, as he should see 30-35 minutes and scores 1.12 FPPM on the season with the available Spurs players today. He is currently our top p/$ projected play on FD and is too cheap for the 40+ FP ceiling he brings today. Malaki Branham ($4,400) is my next favorite Spurs player to target as he should also see 30+ minutes as the likely starter at SG, and is coming off a 30+ FP game after Jones and Sochan got hurt. Depending on salary and positional needs I don’t mind going with three Spurs in cash games and including Keldon Johnson ($7,500) or Jakob Poeltl ($6,400) as both will be very busy today.
- There is probably enough value out there already, but Alec Burks ($5,000) remains underpriced in the second highest projected game total of the slate against Charlotte, and has a solid 4-5x value floor with 7-8x upside given the close spread and little defense this game will have.
- Eric Gordon ($5,400) also remains a bit underpriced after seeing just a $400 increase in salary since last game, as he’s gone for over 36 FP in b2b games and is in the same situation today with Porter & Green both out. It’s not the greatest matchup with Toronto, but his shooting volume and increased usage gives him a nice 25+ FP floor and he has a great shot at another 35-40 FP game, and will likely be around $6k next game if not more.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Not a lot to add as far as favorite plays on DK, as Josh Richardson ($4,800), Malaki Branham ($3,600), Davion Mitchell ($3,000), and Drew Eubanks ($3,800) remain my favorite starting core for value and that should be enough salary savings to fill out the rest of your cash game lineup with high-priced studs. Malik Monk ($4,800) comes at a $500 discount to FD so I would consider using him over one of the first four guys mentioned if you have the extra salary and love the rest of your lineup, as Monk brings a higher ceiling than most of those guys.
- Mike Conley ($5,700), Eric Gordon ($5,500), Alec Burks ($5,100), Kyle Anderson ($5,700), and Jakob Poeltl ($5,600) are some of my favorite targets in the $5k price range, while my favorite spend ups are Damian Lillard ($10,600), Domantas Sabonis ($10,100), Anthony Edwards ($9,900), Tyrese Haliburton ($9,100), and James Harden ($9,600) if Embiid sits.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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