NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/2/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-02 23:43:57

Hope everyone had a fun and safe New Years Eve and is ready to start 2023 and the week with a big ten game main slate! A couple games are already standing out as top DFS targets in LAL/CHA sitting at a 242.5 total and just a 1 point spread along with ATL/GSW sitting at a 237 total and just a 1.5 point spread. The Warriors will also have just 10 players available today so I’m already considering at least three of their starters in cash games while LeBron and LaMelo are looking like elite cash game plays in the likely highest scoring matchup of the night. There’s plenty of questionable names that will have big impacts on the slate and the Nuggets are the lone team on a back-to-back so we’ll get their injury report later.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Joel Embiid is questionable with back soreness and if out Montrezl Harrell would likely get most of the center minutes with Tucker and Reed helping there as well, and James Harden would get a big usage bump and have to carry even more of the offense along with Harris, Melton, and Maxey. (Update: Embiid is IN)

• Fred VanVleet and Precious Achiuwa are questionable for TOR with the latter’s return not being super important as he’d just help with some center minutes. FVV’s absence would likely give Gary Trent the start and he’d be a high upside play coming off a 50+ FP performance last game in 39 minutes. (Update: VanVleet and Achiuwa are IN)

• Kawhi Leonard is questionable with an illness so Paul George would be a much more appealing play if Leonard sits while all the available wings/forwards would help cover Kawhi’s minutes. Nicolas Batum is also questionable for LAC and if out his minutes would be handled by Morris, Powell, and Covington.

• Jusuf Nurkic, Keon Johnson, and Greg Brown are questionable for POR with Brown not being relevant for DFS and Johnson’s minutes would just be absorbed by Sharpe, Payton, and all the other wings. If Nurkic remains out look for Drew Eubanks to start and be a solid value play while the other starters get usage bumps.

• Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Udonis Haslem are questionable for MIA with Haslem not being DFS relevant. If Robinson or Vincent end up out then Max Strus, Victor Oladipo, and Haywood Highsmith would absorb most of their minutes while Highsmith would likely start if Martin ends up out.

• Alperen Sengun is questionable for HOU and if out Bruno Fernando would likely start again with Usman Garuba splitting the center minutes behind him. (Update: Sengun is IN)

• Evan Mobley is questionable for CLE so Kevin Love could be looking at another start while Jarrett Allen would have a bit more upside if Mobley remains out. (Update: Mobley is OUT)

• DeAndre Hunter is questionable for ATL and if out AJ Griffin would likely start at SF while Bogdanovic would get more minutes there as well.

• Lonnie Walker is questionable for LAL and if out Reaves or Brown would start for him with both likely seeing around 25 minutes while Beverley and Schroder get slight usage bumps. (Update: Walker is OUT)

• Javonte Green is questionable for Chicago and his minutes would just be handled by Williams and Jones if out. (Update: Green is OUT)

• Royce ONeale is questionable with an illness now and if out Harris, Curry, and Watanabe would handle his minutes.

• DAngelo Russell and Naz Reid are questionable for MIN now so Nowell and Rivers would get bumps if Russell sits while Knight and Garza would be the available bench bigs if Reid sits.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Warriors will be without Curry, Wiggins, Kuminga, Wiseman, Iguodala, and J. Green today leaving them with 10 available players so the starters should all see big minutes in a nice matchup with ATL while guys like Lamb, Jerome, and Moody will get bumps in playing time off the bench.

• Darius Garland will likely remain out with his thumb sprain so Caris LeVert should remain a starter is still too cheap especially on DK at just $4,800 while Donovan Mitchell will run point and has a higher ceiling.

• Killian Hayes will serve his final game of his suspension today so look for Saddiq Bey to continue to start while Ivey, Burks, and Joseph will handle the PG minutes.

• Larry Nance remains out so Naji Marshall will get most of his bench minutes and Kelly Oubre is out with his hand sprain so Dennis Smith, Theo Maledon and all the available guards/wings will get his minutes.

• Gary Payton is off the injury report and should be available for Portland off the bench to help at the guard spots.

• I mentioned it in the opener but LAL/CHA and ATL/GSW are the clear top games to target today while TOR/IND and DEN/MIN are other solid games to target with both at 233 totals and spreads of 1 and 1.5 respectively.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I definitely want some Warriors in my main build starting with Jordan Poole ($8,100) who finally broke out of his five game mini slump with 49 FP last game and is still a bit too cheap with how thin the Warriors are today along with the pace up matchup with ATL. My next favorite Warrior for the price is Draymond Green ($6,200) who should have a 30 FP floor and a 45+ FP ceiling as the PF/C positions are where GSW are the thinnest today with Kuminga and Wiseman out so Dray should see close to his season-high in minutes. Klay Thompson ($7,600) and Donte DiVincenzo ($6,400) are both super solid plays as well and I will likely have at least one of them too in my main build while Kevon Looney ($5,200) is usually the odd Warriors player out when they’re a top team to target but he should pay off his salary pretty easily today.

• LeBron James ($10,800) and LaMelo Ball ($9,700) will be in most cash game lineups today as this LAL/CHA game environment should be explosive for DFS and both are still a bit too cheap while Thomas Bryant ($6,000) is also looking a bit too cheap with one of the best center matchups in the league and coming off a 17 rebound, 45+ FP performance last game I think his ceiling is too high to fade at that price in the top game to target today.

• Caris LeVert ($6,200) should start again today for Garland and after going for over 36 FP in 37 minutes last game his price did increase $800, but it is still very affordable for someone with a likely 5x value floor and a 7-8x value ceiling.

• Dallas draws a great matchup with HOU so if you have the salary I can’t fault anyone for jamming Luka Doncic ($12,400) in their cash game lineup while Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,100) and Tim Hardaway ($5,600) are very solid value plays to get cheaper exposure to this game. Jalen Green ($6,900) and Jabari Smith ($5,000) are my favorite plays for HOU on the other side.

Looking at DraftKings:

• The first guy I’m locking in to cash games is Caris LeVert ($4,800) as he is just straight up incorrectly priced for a likely starter coming off a 37 minute, 39+ FP performance who took 19 shots with a 27% usage rate and draws the same matchup today. If Mobley sits again then I’d also consider Kevin Love ($4,700) a top cash game target as he should see 30+ minutes as a starter and went for almost 38 FP last game in the same scenario.

• Jordan Poole ($8,200) remains the highest upside Warrior to target and his price didn’t chance on DK after going for over 55 FP last game while Klay ($7,100), Donte ($5,900), and Dray ($6,000) are closer in price than FD so it’s tempting to use all three and full stack their top starters today. Looney ($4,600) remains a strong GPP target with much lower ownership than the other four starters.

• LeBron James ($10,300) only went up $200 in salary after going for over 75 FP last game and with an even better matchup today I would consider him a value at that price. LaMelo Ball ($10,000) and Thomas Bryant ($5,900) remain my other top targets from this game while Gordon Hayward ($5,700) is at his cheapest salary of the year and is a great bounce-back candidate after going for under 10 FP last game.

• Myles Turner ($6,400) is someone worth mentioning as he’s $1k cheaper than FD and his DK price hasn’t budged even after going for 48+ FP in b2b games. His matchup with TOR has one of the highest projected totals and closest spreads of the slate so he has a great chance to go for 7-9x value and you can pair him with Bryant and use two centers if you want.

• Tre Jones ($5,900), Tim Hardaway ($5,800), Onyeka Okongwu ($5,600), Alec Burks ($4,700), Royce ONeale ($4,400), Saddiq Bey ($4,300), Aaron Nesmith ($4,200), and Ayo Dosunmu ($3,900) are other strong plays for the price today.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn