NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/26/23
Six games on tap today with the Nets, Rockets, and Spurs on back-to-backs so we’ll get their first injury reports later. The Cavs are likely going to be without Mitchell, giving a nice usage bump to the birthday boys Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro (follow @RotoNarratives on Twitter for all your narrative info), who also get a great birthday gift in a matchup with Houston. We only have a few questionable guys before we see the b2b teams’ first injury reports, so today shouldn’t be too crazy as far as news and late swaps goes, so let’s get in to the news we know now and some picks I like for today.
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This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward are questionable for Charlotte, and we will know their status before lock as they tip in the first games of the night. CHI/CHA has the highest projected total of the slate and the second closest spread, so I will be looking to target at least a couple Hornets players if Ball & Hayward are out, starting with Terry Rozier and possibly McDaniels, Washington, and Plumlee depending on positional needs and how other news breaks today. I’d also expect Bryce McGowens to start again if both Ball & Hayward are out.
- Isaiah Stewart and Isaiah Livers are questionable for Detroit, so they could have just 10 players available if both end up out. Jalen Duren is already a strong play coming off a 50+ FP game, and would be an even better play if Stewart ends up out, while Saddiq Bey would likely join the starting lineup at one of the forward spots. If Livers sits, guys like Knox and Diallo would see a bump in playing time.
- Marcus Morris and Luke Kennard are questionable for the Clippers, so we’d likely see Nicolas Batum draw the start if Morris ends up out, while Powell and the other wings would continue to handle Kennard’s time if he sits another game.
- Seth Curry is questionable for Brooklyn, and if out Joe Harris would be a more appealing value play looking at safer minutes while Warren, Watanabe, and Sumner would help cover Curry’s time.
- Kevin Love is questionable for back spasms, and if out Cedi Osman and Dean Wade would see a bump in bench minutes.
- Josh Richardson and Stanley Johnson are questionable for the Spurs, and if out guys like Branham, Keldon, KBD, and McDermott would all see a bump in minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Although Donovan Mitchell is officially listed as questionable, we’re going with doubtful and keeping out of projections as there is pessimism internally from Cleveland that he’ll miss some time, as evidenced by quotes like this; “Following Tuesday night’s 105-103 loss versus New York, the Cavs were internally bracing for Mitchell to have another multi-game absence, sources say.” Assuming Mitchell does end up out today, Caris LeVert will likely start and be a great play for the price, while Darius Garland goes back to having a 50+ FP ceiling in a great matchup with Houston.
- The Celtics will remain without Marcus Smart, but will get back Malcolm Brogdon for some much needed help at the guard spots. Brogdon should be the top backup to Derrick White who will likely start for Smart, while Pritchard is off my radar today now.
- Deandre Ayton is on track to return after missing three games due to illness, so Biyombo goes back to the bench and off the value radar today, while the other Suns starters take slight usage hits.
- Romeo Langford remains out today, so Keita-Bates Diop will likely start again and is a solid value option after going for around 30 FP in 25 minutes yesterday. Jeremy Sochan is also likely out so Tre, Keldon, and Poeltl will get usage bumps as the top offensive weapons.
- Eric Gordon and JaeSean Tate are out for Houston, so we’ll likely see Garrison Matthews start at SG while Washington, Christopher, and Nix will be the other available guards who should all be in the rotation now. Tate’s minutes will be absorbed by Martin, Smith, and Eason.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Zach LaVine ($7,800) dropped $400 in price since last game after he went for under 20 FP, and is at his cheapest salary in over two weeks. A matchup with Charlotte is the perfect recipe for a bounce back game and I can’t pass up LaVine’s salary in cash games. Nikola Vucevic ($8,400) is also a bit underpriced in one of the best matchups for big men, as he’s at his cheapest salary in eleven days and has one of the highest ceilings of the slate today.
- If Mitchell is confirmed out before lock, then Darius Garland ($8,400) will be a cash game lock for me, as he would likely see 38+ minutes and have a great shot at 50+ FP. I’d also be all over Caris LeVert ($5,500) as the likely starter for Mitchell, while Evan Mobley ($7,000) and Issac Okoro ($4,600) would be solid options depending on your positional needs.
- Jalen Brunson ($7,900) is coming off a couple down games of under 30 FP in tougher matchups with CLE & TOR, and is now at his cheapest salary in almost three weeks. The matchup with BOS today isn’t a cakewalk either, but at this reduced salary and potentially lower ownership from some recency bias, I don’t mind him as a cash game target or at least a strong GPP play.
- If you don’t use Vucevic as your cash game center, then I’d look to Jalen Duren ($6,200) who only went up $500 in salary after dropping 53.5 FP against the Bucks, and now gets a Nets team on a b2b after a tough game with Philly. I still like Duren if Stewart ends up playing, but if Stewart ends up out then I would be much more comfortable going with Duren in cash games if you need the salary savings.
- Some other plays I like for the price today are KJ Martin ($5,500), Tim Hardaway ($5,300), Patrick Williams ($5,100), Seth Curry ($4,900), Dwight Powell ($4,300), and Keita Bates-Diop ($3,700).
Looking at DraftKings:
- The Bulls are priced up compared to FD, but I’d still look to get two of Nikola Vucevic ($9,000), Zach LaVine ($8,900), and DeMar DeRozan ($9,100) in your main build as their ceilings against Charlotte are just too immense to fade for me today. Patrick Williams ($4,700) comes at a $400 discount to FD and is a solid value option if you’d rather go for cheap Bulls exposure.
- Darius Garland ($8,600) and Caris LeVert ($5,600) remain top plays if Mitchell is out, while I prefer Jarrett Allen ($6,500) to Mobley on DK as he’s $1,200 cheaper than he is on FD and $700 cheaper than Mobley on DK. Isaac Okoro ($3,600) is $1k cheaper than FD and a very solid value play against Houston.
- Jalen Duren ($5,100) is standing out as my favorite p/$ play on DK as he’s $1,100 cheaper than FD, and with a likely 6x value floor and 10x+ ceiling he’s a “fade at your own risk” guy for me in cash games today.
- Zach Collins ($3,700) has been a super steady value option all season, and even off the bench he’s been seeing around 23 MPG over his last four games, going for 17.75 to 30.75 FP in that span. He’s $1,600 cheaper than FD and could be looking at 25+ minutes today as the Spurs are 12.5 point underdogs to LAC, so if this game gets out of hand early Collins could see a lot of garbage time in the second half and crush his current salary.
- Other cheap DK plays to consider in cash games include Cameron Johnson ($5,300), KJ Martin ($5,000), Quentin Grimes ($4,300), Terance Mann ($4,300), Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200), Keita Bates-Diop ($3,000).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
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If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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