NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/3/23
Just three games today with two tipping at 8pm and one tipping at 9pm so we should have all or most of the injury news before lock. None of the six teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the injury reports.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Bradley Beal is the biggest questionable name today as he’s priced down to around $8k on both sites and would be a pretty solid play for the price if available. If he remains out then Kispert and Avdija would get most of his minutes with Kispert likely starting but Avdija is still the higher upside play. Kuzma and Porzingis would have higher ceilings with no Beal while Gafford would be a better value target too. Taj Gibson is also Q and his minutes would be absorbed by Gafford and Hachimura if out.
- Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk are questionable for the Kings so we could be looking at a lot of Terence Davis minutes if both end up out. Fox and Mitchell would also get more guard minutes if both are out while Barnes can also help at SG and would be a more appealing play.
- The Celtics may rest Robert Williams as he continues to ramp up from his return from knee surgery as he’s listed questionable for injury management tonight. Al Horford would be a slightly higher upside play if Williams is out while Griffin and Kornet would be the top bench bigs for BOS.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was ruled out around 6:20PM so Josh Giddey becomes close to a must play on all sites while Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and Tre Mann all become much stronger plays.
- The Bucks will get Jrue Holiday back from his three game absence and Giannis will play after missing last game. Pat Connaughton should continue to start for Khris Middleton who remains out. George Hill also remains out so Carter should get most of his time.
- I’d expect Daniel Gafford and Jaylin Williams to continue to start at C for WSH and OKC while MIL, BOS, SAC, and UTA should go with the lineups we have projected on RG unless Huerter is out in which we could see Terence Davis draw the start.
- Collin Sexton is out for Utah after hurting his hamstring so Beasley, Alexander-Walker, and Horton-Tucker should get most of his bench minutes.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- It’s looking like value is going to be hard to come by today as there’s just three projected starters under $5k and just three other projected starters under $5.5k. Pat Connaughton ($3,900) is the cheapest projected starter and although he doesn’t bring a ton of upside, especially with Giannis and Jrue returning, he still has a good chance to produce 4-5x value and that could really help you fit in more of the higher ceiling players. Grayson Allen ($4,500) is also a solid value play for MIL as he should still see 25-30 minutes and he too has a good chance of producing 4-6x value.
- Jaylin Williams ($4,100) is the other projected starter under $5k but he’s by far the riskiest value play today as he’s seen 24 and 17 minutes in his last two starts and in both games has combined for just 20.8 FP. If your perfect cash game lineup absolutely needs a PF for $4.1k then I can see using him, otherwise I’d spend up a bit and get other PFs with safer floors.
- Daniel Gafford ($5,200), Derrick White ($5,300), and Keegan Murray ($5,300) are the next three projected starters under $5.5k with Murray being my least favorite target from that group as his ceiling just isn’t there lately as he’s gone for over 24 FP just once in his last ten games. White should be good for 20-30 FP and is a fine play for the price while Gafford has been the best of that group lately going for over 30 FP in three straight games even while playing under 28 minutes in each.
- My favorite value play off the bench today is Malik Beasley ($4,800) as he should see a bump in minutes with Sexton out and he’s been averaging over 20 FPPG pretty consistently all season. SAC/UTA is the highest projected total of the slate with just a three point spread so Beasley should have plenty of opportunity to get it going early and they could lean on him to close the game out if he’s having a solid game. Terence Davis ($3,900) would be a top value of the slate if Huerter and Monk both end up out.
- Other plays I like for the price today include Jordan Clarkson ($7,100), Marcus Smart ($6,300), Lu Dort ($5,600), Jalen Williams ($5,600), Harrison Barnes ($5,500), and Deni Avdija ($5,400).
Looking at DraftKings:
- If Robert Williams ($4,200) does play I’d consider him as a solid cash game value option as he’s averaged over 5x value in all the games he’s played this year and with value being hard to come by today he should really help you fit in more studs. Grant Williams ($3,500) is another Celtic bench player that should easily pay off his salary especially if this game gets out of hand early and bench guys get more run late in the game.
- Kelly Olynyk ($5,200) comes at a nice $800 discount to FD and is a solid way to get cheap exposure to UTA/SAC but he does come with a low floor risk as he put up under 13 FP in this same matchup two games ago. If he can stay out of foul trouble, limit the turnovers, and hit a couple more threes he should easily pay off his salary on DK today though.
- Daniel Gafford ($4,300) also comes at a nice $900 discount to FD and should be one of the more popular value plays on DK as he’s gone for 6-7x value in three straight games and his price actually went down $100 from last game.
- Other value I like on DK includes Mike Conley ($5,300), Lu Dort ($5,100), Harrison Barnes ($4,900), Jalen Williams ($4,900), Al Horford ($4,800), and Malik Beasley ($4,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn