NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/13/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-13 23:05:10

We’re starting the week with what should be a pretty wild seven game slate, as we have five big questionable starters currently, two games with projected totals over 244, and a bunch of excellent value plays available as Indiana and Detroit are missing 10+ players combined in a rematch from two days ago. No teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the initial injury reports, which shows a lot of big names still out like Doncic, Durant, Morant, Haliburton, and Turner. We should get most of the questionable players’ statuses before lock as almost all of them tip off at 7:30PM or earlier, with Giannis being the most important questionable player tipping at 10PM, and if we don’t learn his status until after lock make sure you have lineup flexibility if you want to swap to Holiday, Middleton, or Portis.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Rudy Gobert is questionable with an ankle sprain, so Naz Reid would draw the start if he’s out, and at his current salaries in the second highest projected game total of the slate, he would be a top play on all sites. With Gobert off the floor this year (along with Towns, Nowell, Russell, and Vanderbilt), Edwards and Reid both see around a 4% usage bump and lead the team with FPPM rates of 1.29 and 1.44 respectively. (Update: Gobert is IN)

• Kyrie Irving is questionable with foot soreness that kept him out last game, and with Doncic still out, Jaden Hardy would likely start at PG again if Irving remains out. Hardy went for around 30 FP in 37 minutes as the starting PG last game, and at his currently salaries he’d be a top value play on all sites if given another start today. With Doncic & Irving off the floor (along with Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith) Tim Hardaway and Josh Green both see a 4.9% usage bump and would be in play for cash games at reasonable prices on both sites. Christian Wood is also questionable with foot soreness, and if out guys like Bullock, Powell, Kleber, and Bertans would all see bumps in minutes. (Update: Irving and Wood are OUT)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with hand soreness, and if out again Bobby Portis should continue to start, and his price hasn’t gone up enough on either site to not consider him a solid cash game target, especially in a projected 244.5 game total against the Kings. With Giannis off the floor this season Jrue Holiday sees a 4.7% usage bump and would be a top cash game target for under $9k on both sites, while Khris MIddleton sees a team high 30.7% usage rate and scores a team high 1.27 FPPM.

• Buddy Hield is questionable with foot soreness, and with so many other Pacers already out they may opt to be cautious with Hield and sit him today. If that ends up true then I’d expect Jordan Nwora to start for him, and he’d have to be considered a top value option at his current salaries as he sees an 8.2% usage bump with Hield and the other Pacers players out today off the floor, while Andrew Nembhard and Chris Duarte would also be solid value plays just on pure volume of minutes they’d both see in the backcourt. (Update: Hield is IN)

• Jordan Clarkson is questionable with the finger sprain that’s kept him out the last three games, and if he remains out look for Agbaji to continue to start with Talen Horton-Tucker moving to PG and being a high-upside play. Lauri Markkanen would also have a higher ceiling as he scores .12 FPPM more with Clarkson off the floor. (Update: Clarkson is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Indiana will be without two starters again in Haliburton and Turner, while top bench options McConnell and Mathurin also remain out. Chris Duarte and Isaiah Jackson will likely both start again, while Andrew Nembhard moves to PG and is a top play looking at 30+ minutes at cheap salaries on both sites. Jalen Smith and Jordan Nwora will also see increased roles, and Nwora could end up starting if Hield doesn’t play through his questionable tag.

• The Pistons keep losing guys as Marvin Bagley will join Bogdanovic, Burks, Diallo, Ivey, and Stewart on the sidelines today, so we could see Eugene Omoruyi get a start at one of the forward spots today. McGruder should continue to start for Ivey and Livers will almost certainly remain a starter for Bogdanovic, while Wiseman and Duren will handle the center minutes.

• Alperen Sengun is out with a groin strain, so we could see Garuba start at center, or they could go with Smith at center with either Tate or Eason joining the starting lineup.

• Morant remains out for Memphis so Tyus Jones will continue to start, and with Doncic still out for Dallas look for Tim Hardaway to start for him again.

• Craig should continue to start with Durant out, White should remain a starter for Boston with R. Williams still out, DiVincenzo should keep starting with Wiggins out, and Tillman should continue to start with Adams out.

• Joe Ingles will rest on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b for Milwaukee, with Middleton likely resting tomorrow. Kyle Lowry will continue to come off the bench with Vincent starting.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Both Isaiah’s in the IND/DET game are popping as top p/$ values today, as Isaiah Jackson ($4,600) and Isaiah Livers ($4,900) are a bit too cheap given their expected roles as starters today. They both draw the same matchup as last game too in which they each went for 43+ FP, and although it’s hard to expect 9x value again, both should have a 5-6x value floor and make for excellent cash game PF value options.

• Andrew Nembhard ($4,900) is in the same situation as last game as the top PG available looking at 32+ minutes in the same matchup with Detroit where he dropped 32.6 FP two days ago. His price only went up $600 from last game which is definitely not enough, as he should have a higher ceiling than 32 FP since he only shot 6 for 15 with no steals last game, so there is still room for improvement and he could even be looking at a higher usage rate if Hield ends up on the wrong side of his questionable tag. Chris Duarte ($4,400) only shot 2 for 11 last game but still saw 32 minutes as a starter and his price only went up $300, so he is definitely still in play for cash game value at the SG/SF spots.

• Killian Hayes ($6,400) also went up only $300 after dropping 47.7 FP against Indiana last game in 36 minutes, and has a great shot to do it again today with Ivey still out and only 10 players available for the Pistons. Rodney McGruder ($4,000) and Eugene Omoruyi ($4,400) should also see solid minutes but are just GPP plays for me today as they have limited upside and there’s plenty of other value out there today to not need them in cash games.

• Tim Hardaway ($5,800) only went up $200 after going for 36.2 FP in 36 minutes last game with Doncic and Irving out, and today he should almost certainly start again with at least Doncic out and possibly Irving again. Hardaway also draws the same matchup as last game so he has a great shot at going for over 6x value again, and even if Irving ends up playing I think he’s cheap enough to still pay off his price. Josh Green ($4,700) would also be in consideration for cash game value if Irving is out, while Jaden Hardy ($4,500) would be a very solid SG value play if he starts for Irving again.

• The Celtics have one of the highest projected team totals of the slate against Houston, but they are also 12.5 point favorites so there is some blowout risk. Derrick White ($6,100) is still cheap enough to be able to go for 6x+ value in less than usual minutes, but if Houston can keep this game relatively close and White sees 35+ minutes, he has legit 40+ FP upside and is my favorite p/$ play for Boston.

• Kyle Anderson ($6,600) has gone for 40+ FP in two of his last three games, and has a great shot at doing it again today in the highest project game total of the slate against Atlanta. Nowell remains out and Gobert could end up out as he’s questionable now, so Anderson could have to carry even more offense and see more than the 31 minutes he’s currently projected for, and should be a very strong option in cash games at the SF/PF spots.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Killian Hayes ($5,700), Andrew Nembhard ($5,000), and Isaiah Jackson ($4,600) remain my favorite starting points for cash games, as they all remain underpriced with so many players out for IND and DET. Isaiah Livers ($5,300) and Chris Duarte ($4,200) remain in play for value if you need more salary savings and/or want to stack up that IND/DET game with more players.

• Al Horford ($5,600) comes at a $600 discount to FD so I prefer using him DK for more cheap exposure to Boston, while Derrick White ($6,000) remains a bit underpriced and is still my favorite p/$ target for them.

• Tim Hardaway ($6,400) and Kyle Anderson ($6,100) remain strong cash game targets for the price, and keep Naz Reid ($4,400) and Jaden Hardy ($4,000) on your cash game radar as both would be top value plays if Gobert or Irving sit respectively.

• Lastly I want to mention Chris Paul ($7,700) and Deandre Ayton ($7,500) as both come at slight discounts to their FD salaries, and I would try getting at least one of them in your cash game lineup at very reasonable prices. Both are coming off 44+ FP games and will have to keep carrying more offense with Durant still out, plus their matchup with the Warriors should be high scoring and very competitive. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over 14.5 points line for Paul there today.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Getty Images