NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/16/23
There are only five games today as the NBA takes a slight backseat to March Madness beginning, but that means more basketball to sweat today! Only the Kings are on a back-to-back, but they should have the usual guys available once we see their first injury report later. Meanwhile, the Pistons remain decimated with injuries. They are looking at just ten players available with the likely return of Jaden Ivey from health & safety protocols. The Pacers and Bucks have the most injury news and happen to be facing each other, so hopefully, we learn the status of the four questionable starters in that game before lock.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top-value plays if a questionable player gets ruled. So knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested and also adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.
This article highlights some of RG’s most helpful tools for the NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, and TJ McConnell are all questionable for Indiana. Therefore, there are many possible variations regarding starting lineups and top-value plays depending on which combination of guys play. Haliburton sitting would make Andrew Nembhard a much stronger play as the top PG, especially if McConnell also sits. Turner sitting would likely give Isaiah Jackson another start at center. Hield sitting could give Jordan Nwora or Oshae Brissett the start at SF. If all four Q guys end up out, Jalen Smith would be a great value option as he sees an 8.7% usage bump and scores .26 more FPPM with those guys off the floor. (Update: Haliburton is OUT, Turner/McConnell/Hield are IN)
- Brook Lopez is questionable with ankle soreness, and if out Bobby Portis would likely start at center. Meyers Leonard would likely be in the rotation as his backup, as they just don’t have any other true centers after Lopez and Portis. With Lopez (and Allen) off the floor this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo has a ridiculous 41.2% usage rate and scores 1.89 FPPM, making him the even more obvious top spend up the slate. Khris Middleton would also be a better play as he sees a 30.1% usage rate and scores 1.21 FPPM in that situation. Jae Crowder and Goran Dragic are also questionable but their statuses aren’t very important as they have plenty of guards and wings to handle their minutes if out. (Update: Lopez, Crowder, and Dragic are OUT)
- Gary Harris is questionable for Orlando. If out, Jalen Suggs would likely start at SG and be a decent value option on DK, where he’s only $4,900. His $6,900 price on FD is too expensive for me outside of a GPP play.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Pistons remain without Bagley, Bogdanovic, Burks, Diallo, Livers, and Stewart. They will likely get back Jaden Ivey to start at SG and give them 10 players available. Eugene Omoruyi should continue to start at PF with McGruder at SF, while Wiseman and Duren will continue to handle all the center minutes.
- With Grayson Allen out for the Bucks, Jevon Carter will likely start at SG as he did last game. Guys like Ingles and Connaughton will see slight minute bumps and help there too. The Pacers should have their usual starting lineup if their questionable starters are available. However, Chris Duarte has been ruled out so he won’t be a fill-in starter if Haliburton and/or Hield are out. Mathurin remains out with his ankle sprain for even less wing depth for them.
- Torrey Craig should continue to start with Durant out, and with Ben Simmons still out for Brooklyn, look for O’Neale, Curry, and Harris to remain the top bench options.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Like Adebayo yesterday, Pascal Siakam ($8,400) is standing out as his price dropped another $100. He is now at his lowest salary of the season, which also like Bam, is entirely justifiable as Siakam hasn’t gone for over 40 FP in eight straight games. A matchup with OKC is a great way to break out of a slump, as he’s still seeing huge minutes. With just a 5-point spread at home, this game should be pretty competitive and high scoring, and we know Siakam has 60+ FP upside in the right game environments, so take advantage of his reduced price tag today.
- Overall pricing is looking a lot tighter than most days on FD, so we’re going to have to really work to fit in Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000) along with Siakam or another $8k+ player or two, and before we learn the Pacers and Bucks injury news, I’m looking to Detroit for value as they still have some solid cheap options looking at big minutes. Rodney McGruder ($5,100) saw 38 minutes last game and should be looking at 30+ minutes again today even with the addition of Ivey, so with a likely 4x value floor and 6x ceiling, he should be a strong p/$ play in that price range. Eugene Omoruyi ($5,500) had to leave for a bit last game with an ankle injury, but eventually returned going for almost 20 FP in 20 minutes, so assuming he sees closer to 30 minutes today he should put up at least 5x value and possibly more if the Pistons get blown out. He gets a lot of the garbage time.
- Josh Okogie ($5,100) should be another solid value option, as he’s seeing around 34 MPG with Durant out and has a pretty solid floor with his ability to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, like last game where he went for over 27 FP while making just one field goal. Torrey Craig ($4,400) might be the best play for under $5k today as he should continue to start for Durant and see 25-30 minutes. Although his ceiling is pretty weak, he should have a solid 4x value floor and will help you fit in Giannis and another stud or two.
- In the $6k price range, I really like Michael Porter ($6,100) as he’s gone for 33+ FP in b2b games, and should easily pay off his salary today against Detroit unless that game gets way out of hand early and they blow the Pistons out. Cameron Johnson ($6,300) is another top play in that price range, as I definitely want exposure to that SAC/BKN game with the highest projected total of the slate and just a 2 point spread. Johnson is coming off a 39.3 FP game in 39 minutes, so that kind of ceiling makes his price tag look way too cheap. Kevin Huerter ($6,200) and Harrison Barnes ($5,300) are where I’d go for value on the King’s side.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Pascal Siakam ($8,400) remains at one of his lowest salaries of the season and is one of my favorite cash game plays on DK as well, along with Scottie Barnes ($7,300) who comes at a $900 discount to FD.
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,900) and Mikal Bridges ($8,300) remain underpriced given the huge minutes and usage rates they’re getting. The matchup with the Kings is a perfect environment for both to have ceiling games of 50+ FP at great salaries. I usually don’t like using three players from one team in cash games, but Cameron Johnson ($6,300) is still a fine play at that price with his 35+ FP upside. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, where today I like betting the over on Bridges line of 26.5 points.
- Rodney McGruder ($5,000) and Eugene Omoruyi ($5,100) remain my favorite p/$ values from Detroit, while Michael Porter ($6,000), Aaron Gordon ($6,200), Kevin Huerter ($5,700), Josh Okogie ($5,100), Torrey Craig ($3,800), and Jaylin Williams ($3,800) are other cheap plays I’m considering in cash games.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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