NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/21/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-21 22:30:36

Six games on today’s slate, with the Kings today’s lone team on a back-to-back, so we’ll likely see Kevin Huerter listed as questionable again when we get their initial injury report later. The Pistons and Spurs will both be missing about half their roster today, so there will be plenty of strong plays from both teams, especially the Spurs, who are a lot cheaper overall. Jarrett Allen could return for Cleveland to slow down the Mobley train, but Kyle Kuzma will be out for the Wizards, so full steam ahead on the upside of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. Robert Williams will definitely be back for Boston, as he is completely off the injury report now. It will be interesting to see if he gets his starting spot back right away or if he’s eased in off the bench in a great matchup with the Kings, sitting at the highest projected total of the slate.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Dejounte Murray is questionable with an illness for Atlanta, and if out, I’d consider Trae Young a top play of the slate, as he’s still under $10k on both sites and sees a 3.1% usage bump while scoring an additional .15 FPPM with Murray off the floor. Bogdanovic or Griffin would likely start for Murray, and both would be decent value plays. (Update: Murray is OUT)

• Jarrett Allen is questionable to return from his eye contusion, and if so, I would be much less interested in Evan Mobley outside of GPPs, as he would lose his 2% usage bump and .15 FPPM increase when Allen was off the floor. Allen himself would be tempting on DK for $6.2k, but not on FD for $7.7k, especially with the chance he doesn’t see full minutes as he works back into game shape. If Allen remains out, though, Mobley would absolutely be a top target for $7.7k on DK and $8.4k on FD. (Update: Allen is IN)

• Dorian Finney-Smith is questionable with a wrist contusion for the Nets, so we’d likely see Royce O’Neale join the starting lineup if he’s out, or they could go with Joe Harris at SF and move Cam Johnson to PF. (Update: Finney-Smith is IN)

• Isaiah Livers & RJ Hampton are questionable for Detroit, so they would be down to just 9 players if both end up out. Livers’ absence would give more minutes to McGruder, Bagley, and Omoruyi, while Hampton sitting would give more minutes to Ivey, McGruder, Joseph, and Boeheim. (Update: Livers is OUT, Hampton is IN)

• Devonte Graham is questionable for the Spurs, and they would be down to 10 available players if he ends up out. It would also leave them with just Jones, Branham, Langford, and Wesley as available guards, with the former two being the likely starters in the backcourt. (Update: Graham is IN)

• Kevin Huerter can be considered questionable for now, and like the last two games, I’d expect Kessler Edwards to start for him again if he remains out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, and which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With Kuzma out, Corey Kispert will likely start at SF, while Deni Avdija will also see a boost in minutes.

• Jalen Duren joins the laundry list of Pistons out today, so James Wiseman will likely push for 35 minutes today, especially if Livers can’t play through his Q tag, which would leave just Bagley and Omoruyi as other potential options for center minutes.

• The Spurs will sit Zach Collins and Devin Vassell for rest, while Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson will be out with injuries. Sandro Mamukelashvili should draw the start at center and be a solid value option, while Keita Bates-Diop will likely start for Sochan. Malaki Branham will likely start for Vassell, and I’d expect Langford to take Keldon’s starting SF spot. Tre Jones was initially doubtful, but was upgraded to available at 12:30PM EST, giving the Spurs 11 players at best if Graham plays.

• We’ll see how the Celtics plan to use Robert Williams his first game back from the hamstring injury that kept him out eight games, but for now, I’d expect him to start in the frontcourt with Horford.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I have to consider Sandro Mamukelashvili ($5,100) a top-value option as the likely starting center for the Spurs, as he saw 33 minutes as the starter the last time Collins was out, going for 21.4 FP while shooting just 4 for 13. If he can make a few more shots, he should have an easy 5x value floor, and if he gets a couple of blocks or steals in there, he has a 40+ FP ceiling, given all the guys out in the frontcourt today. Malaki Branham ($5,200) is my next favorite Spurs target as the likely starter for Vassell, as he’ll have to carry a large chunk of the offense with Keldon now out too.

• With Stewart, Bogdanovic, and Duren out for DET, Marvin Bagley ($5,600) and James Wiseman ($7,000) will be very busy in the frontcourt today. I would try to get at least one of them in your main build, as they could each be forced into 35+ minutes, especially if Livers ends up out too. They both have similar ceilings, while Wiseman probably has the higher floor, but for the $1,400 discount, I’d go with Bagley in cash games if you only go with one.

• There is some blowout risk with the Pelicans as 12.5 point favorites currently over the Spurs, but Brandon Ingram ($8,500) remains at a great price after not seeing a salary increase from the last game in which he went for 38+ FP for the third straight game. Trey Murphy ($5,900) did see a $400 price drop and is a fine SF value option, as he’s seen 37 minutes in three straight games and has a huge ceiling if the Spurs can keep this game relatively close.

• If Dejounte Murray ends up out with his illness, I’d pretty much jam in Trae Young ($9,900) no matter what in cash games, while De’Andre Hunter ($5,200) and John Collins ($5,400) would be much more appealing value plays, along with Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,200) especially if he starts. (Update: Murray is OUT)

Looking at DraftKings:

• Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,200) is just too cheap given his role today and is the first guy I’m locking into cash games on DK. At the same time, Keita Bates-Diop ($3,700) is $1.4k cheaper than FD and should easily pay off that salary as a projected starter today. Malaki Branham ($5,100) remains an excellent cash game play with Vassell and Keldon out.

• My preference between Bagley and Wiseman is flipped on DK, as Wiseman ($6,400) is just $100 more expensive than Bagley ($6,300), and with likely safer minutes and a higher floor, I’d use him in cash games if you only use one between him and Bagley. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, where I like betting the over on Wiseman’s 15.5 points line today.

• Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600) is coming off b2b games of 45+ FP, and at a $900 discount to FD, he is a solid cash game play today against the Spurs, who have a similar disinterest in defense as the Rockets, who J-Val just torched in b2b games. Brandon Ingram ($8,600) and Trey Murphy ($6,200) remain at a great price.

• If Robert Williams ($4,800) draws the start and we don’t hear of any strict minutes limit, he’ll be hard to fade at that price against the Kings. If he doesn’t start, or we hear he’ll be on a 20-minute limit his first game back, I will look elsewhere for value today.

• Trae Young ($9,600) remains a must-play if Murray ends up out, while Hunter ($5,200), Collins ($5,400), and Capela ($5,800) would all be more appealing plays at great prices too. (Update: Murray is OUT)

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

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Good luck today!

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