NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/3/23
Six games on today’s slate, with three teams on a back-to-back in the Celtics, Trail Blazers, and Pacers so we’ll get their injury reports later. Boston played a double overtime game yesterday then had to travel to Cleveland, so it’s pretty much a guarantee Horford will get today off, while Smart/Brown/Tatum all saw between 39-48 minutes yesterday so we could see someone get a breather today. The Pistons and Sixers are on the front end of a b2b tomorrow, and both teams have multiple questionable starters today so they may take the cautious approach and get guys healthier for tomorrow’s game. Donovan Mitchell is the biggest questionable tag but we’ll know his status before lock as he plays in the first games of the night, while Fox and Valanciunas are questionable in the 10PM game so we may not learn their statuses until after lock.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Donovan Mitchell is questionable with a finger sprain on his left hand, and if out we’d likely see Caris LeVert draw the start, and at his current salaries I’d consider him a must play as he sees a 3% usage bump and scores an additional .14 FPPM with Mitchell (and Love) off the floor this year. Darius Garland sees a similar 3.5% usage bump and also scores .14 FPPM more with Mitchell off, so he’d have a higher ceiling and is still very affordable on both sites.
- Jonas Valanciunas is questionable with his calf injury, so Willy Hernangomez would likely start again if out, with Jaxson Hayes splitting center minutes with him. Hernangomez has only seen 20 and 15 minutes the last two games with J-Val out, so he’s nowhere near a must-play if Valanciunas is out again, and Hayes has seen 15 and 21 minutes in those games, so both are very risky in cash games. McCollum and Ingram both see around a .20 bump in FPPM with J-Val off the floor and both have usage rates over 30%, so they would be the preferred targets if Valanciunas remains out.
- DeAaron Fox is questionable with hamstring soreness, and if out Davion Mitchell should draw the start and would be a top value play as he went for over 27 FP in 32 minutes the last game Fox sat, and today’s game with New Orleans has the highest projected total of the slate. Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Terence Davis all see between a 3.6-4.1% usage bump with Fox off the floor, while Sabonis leads the team with 1.36 FPPM.
- James Wiseman, Killian Hayes, and Rodney McGruder are all questionable for Detroit, so we could be looking at huge minutes for Marvin Bagley as the lone healthy center if Wiseman is out, while Jaden Ivey and Alec Burks would get most of Hayes’ minutes if he’s out. McGruder sitting would give more minutes to Livers, Diallo, and Hampton.
- Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker are questionable for Philly, so they could be pretty thin at the forward spots if both end up out, and guys like McDaniels, Niang, and House would all see big minutes bumps with some combo of them starting. Harris sitting would give a bigger usage bump to the other starters compared to Tucker sitting, and we could see Melton start at SF for him.
- Aaron Nesmith can be considered questionable after sitting yesterday with hip soreness, and if out Jordan Nwora would likely start again for him with Oshae Brissett splitting time at the PF spot.
- The Celtics could be down a few guys today after double OT yesterday, but for now I’d consider Malcolm Brogdon questionable after he sat again yesterday, so Smart, White, and Pritchard would all absorb his time if he’s out again.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- For now we know Robert Williams is out for Boston, and we’re also treating Horford as doubtful on the b2b, so either Mike Muscala or Blake Griffin will likely start at center today. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Brown or Tatum get today off after both saw 47+ minutes yesterday, so Sam Hauser or Grant Williams could find their way in to the starting lineup today, but check back later for updates once we see Boston’s first injury report.
- We’ll get Portland’s first injury report later today too, but I’d consider Simons doubtful at best with his ankle sprain, so Cam Reddish should continue to start for him. Their opponents Detroit will be without Bogdanovic, Stewart, and Duren, so look for Livers, Bagley, and Wiseman (if active) to start for each of them.
- The Pelicans remain without Richardson, Nance, and Alvarado, so Trey Murphy should remain a starter and be a strong value play on both sites, while Marshall, Daniels, and Lewis remain the top bench guards/wings.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Marvin Bagley ($6,200) is currently my favorite play of the slate, as Detroit is just decimated in the frontcourt right now with Bogdanovic, Stewart, and Duren all out, along with Wiseman dealing with knee soreness and questionable today. Even if the questionable Pistons end up available today, Bagley should still see 30+ minutes as a likely starter and is just too cheap given he’s averaging 37.6 FPPG since returning from injury, and three of those games he saw under 28 minutes. If Wiseman ends up out I’d expect Bagley to be one of the highest owned players of the slate.
- Matisse Thybulle ($5,100) and Cam Reddish ($5,500) both remain excellent value options as they’re each seeing starters’ minutes and have shown 30+ FP upside with each putting up that score in two of their last three games. Reddish is going to take way more shots than Thybulle so I prefer him if you only use one, as his ceiling is a bit higher, while Thybulle comes at a slight price discount so I prefer him in that sense if you need the extra $400 to improve another position.
- Trey Murphy ($5,200) saw 37 minutes last game as a starter with Richardson out for personal reasons, and today Murphy is in the same situation with Richardson still out, and his price didn’t change from last game after going for 4.5x value. I’d be more happy to use Murphy for value if Valanciunas is out, but he should still have a solid 20-25 FP floor given the solid minutes he’s projected for if you need another cheap SF in your cash game lineup today. Herbert Jones ($5,400) is also a very strong value option at the SG/SF spots for New Orleans.
- Tyrese Maxey ($6,800) remains underpriced since replacing Melton in the starting lineup, especially with today’s matchup against Indiana that is currently sitting at the second highest projected total of the slate, plus the possibility of Harris and/or Tucker being out or limited with their questionable tags. Maxey is averaging 37 MPG as a starter and his salary only went up $200 from last game, so this is probably the last chance we can play for him under $7k, and I will continue to use him in cash games at PG or SG until he’s priced correctly.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Marvin Bagley ($5,500) and Tyrese Maxey ($5,500) both remain way underpriced given their increased roles as projected starters and will be the first guys I lock in to my cash game lineup. Cam Reddish ($4,300) also remains way too cheap for the 32+ minutes he’s projected for in a nice matchup with Detroit, along with Matisse Thybulle ($4,200), and those four guys should be plenty of value to fit in Damian Lillard ($11,600) and at least one or two other $9k+ guys today.
- Trey Murphy ($4,400) and Herbert Jones ($4,300) are great value options too if you want to pivot off Reddish or Thybulle who are both playing on a back-to-back, while Detroit has some solid value options in Isaiah Livers ($3,400), Alec Burks ($4,100), and Hamidou Diallo ($4,900) who could all be looking at big roles if Hayes and/or McGruder end up out.
- Michael Porter ($5,400) is at his cheapest salary in over a month, and with two games of 40+ FP in his last three, he is a very strong SF target in cash games coming at a $1,500 discount to his FD price, and he definitely has a higher ceiling than some of the other SF value I mentioned above for a just a little bit more salary. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, and I like betting the over for Porter’s line of 16.5 points there today.
- Kevin Huerter ($4,900) and Harrison Barnes ($5,000) are a couple more wing guys in play for value today, especially if Fox ends up out, along with Caris LeVert ($4,000) if Mitchell ends up out.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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