NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/11/22
We’re ending the week with a nice 8-game slate with some big names already ruled out and a few questionable guys that could really impact the slate if they end up out as well. We also have no teams on a back-to-back so all of the injury reports are out and hopefully no one else pops up on later updated reports. Fridays always seem to end up being crazy slates in some way so make sure to keep checking for updates.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Paolo Banchero is questionable with his ankle sprain and if out Chuma Okeke would likely start for him again and all the starters would get usage bumps.
- Chris Paul is questionable with his sore heel and like Banchero, we will know his status before lock as PHO/ORL is the first game of the night. If he’s out Cameron Payne would start and is still a bit too cheap on both sites. Devin Booker and Mikal Bridges had monster games when Paul sat last game and both would be in play again today.
- The Pistons have a few Q guys with Cade Cunningham being the most important dealing with shin soreness. If Cade is out, I would consider Jaden Ivey a top target of the slate as he’s been awesome his last couple of games with Cade in and would have to do even more with no Cade. Marvin Bagley is Q for the first time and could return to help with some PF/C minutes but he’ll likely be eased in off the bench and Hamidou Diallo is Q although his absence wouldn’t impact much as Alec Burks is on track to return so he and the other guards would absorb Diallo’s minutes.
- Anthony Davis was downgraded to questionable with an illness around 2PM and if out Westbrook would be a top play of the slate while all the Lakers starters would be in play for value.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Bucks will be in the same situation as last game with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday both out again, so we should see MarJon Beauchamp and Bobby Portis start alongside Carter, Allen, and Lopez. Even with just 11 available, the Bucks stuck to a pretty tight 9-man rotation with Brook Lopez and Jevon Carter seeing the most minutes. This makes both of them excellent plays today. Beauchamp, Allen, and Hill are all solid value options.
- LeBron James hurt his groin and will be out today leaving a ton of usage available for Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook who will carry most of the offense. Wenyen Gabriel could start for LeBron but doesn’t offer much upside while Troy Brown should see 30+ minutes and is a fine value option.
- A couple important bench guys are out today with Malcolm Brogdon tweaking his hamstring and Precious Achiuwa tearing ligaments in his ankle. Brogdon’s absence will give a lot more opportunity to Sam Hauser, who saw over 30 minutes last game. Meanwhile, Achiuwa’s absence will give more minutes to Koloko, Boucher, and Young. Darius Bazley is also out with an ankle sprain, but the Thunder have plenty of forwards to absorb his minutes.
- Donte DiVincenzo and Alec Burks are both probable and on track to return today but they shouldn’t affect too much as both will likely see 10-15 minutes off the bench helping with guard minutes.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Bobby Portis ($5,800) and Jevon Carter ($5,100) are popping hard as the best p/$ projected plays and at those prices in a nice matchup with the Spurs in what should be a close game I like starting cash games with both of them but especially Carter who is coming off a monster game and will have to run a lot of the offense again today. Brook Lopez ($6,700) is still pretty affordable and has huge upside with no Giannis or Holiday while Allen, Beauchamp, and Hill are in play if you need to fill another position for cheap.
- With no LeBron, the Lakers offer some nice value in Patrick Beverley ($4,200) and Troy Brown ($4,300) as they are the safest starters outside of Davis to see 30+ minutes although they both come with the risk of 10-15 FP floors but their price won’t kill you if that happens. I also think Russell Westbrook ($7,200) is still a bit too cheap given his likely role with no LBJ and he is definitely in play at that price even coming off the bench.
- Also in that game I like Harrison Barnes ($5,000) and Malik Monk ($4,700) as high upside value options. Barnes is coming off a 40+ FP game but only needs about 25+ FP to payoff to his price while Monk has been seeing 27+ minutes off the bench over his last three games and averaged almost 30 FPPG.
- Some other guys that I’d consider as strong value options are Al Horford ($5,200), Dillon Brooks ($5,300), Tre Jones ($5,800), Klay Thompson ($5,700), Draymond Green ($5,700), Saddiq Bey ($5,700), Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,700), and Gary Trent ($5,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jevon Carter ($5,300) went up $1,400 in salary after putting up over 60 FP last game but given his similar role today I think he is still a bit too cheap and he’s the first guy I’m locking in. Bobby Portis ($7,000) is more of a GPP play at that price as I’d rather use Brook Lopez ($6,300) who has safer minutes and a higher ceiling than Portis. George Hill ($3,900) is my favorite target between he, Allen, and Beauchamp.
- Beverley ($4,600), Brown ($4,500), Barnes ($4,900), and Monk ($4,500) remain my favorite value plays from the SAC/LAL game and even if Lonnie Walker ($5,100) is available he could be eased back in as his conditioning is likely not at game speed yet so he’s a fade for me.
- DK finally moved Darius Garland ($7,400) above $7k but Evan Mobley ($5,700) is at his lowest salary of the season and is one of my favorite mid-range targets in what should be a very competitive game with the Warriors. Klay Thompson ($5,700) and Draymond Green ($5,800) are fine cheap options for the Warriors especially Klay who looks to be off any kind of restrictions having seen 37 minutes last game.
- Other plays I like for the price include Cameron Payne ($5,700) if Paul is out again, Aaron Gordon ($5,900), Al Horford ($5,400), Jaden Ivey ($5,700), Saddiq Bey ($5,500), Gary Trent ($5,800), Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,200), Tre Jones ($5,600), and Steven Adams ($5,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn