NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 15
There are eight games on today’s slate, and with seven teams on a back-to-back, there could be a lot of slate-changing news as the day goes on and we start getting teams’ first injury reports. I’m most interested in what the 76ers do with Embiid, while the Lakers were able to limit the minutes of AD and LBJ in a blowout yesterday, so I’d expect them to both be available against SAC tonight.
Plenty of big names are already questionable, along with some other big starting lineup changes, so let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid is questionable with left hip soreness, and if out I’d expect Paul Reed to start and be a top value play of the slate. Maxey, Melton, and Harris would all get huge usage bumps as well and be in play for cash games.
- Kyrie Irving is questionable with a foot sprain, and if out, I’d expect Green to start and be a decent value play, while Doncic would get a huge usage bump and be the top spend up of the slate.
- LeBron James is questionable with his calf issue, and if he sits tonight look for Rui Hachimura to start and be a solid cash game target, while Russell and AD would get big usage bumps.
- Dennis Schroder is questionable with knee soreness, and if out, Toronto would be very thin at guard with Trent and Anunoby already doubtful. Malachi Flynn would likely start at PG and be a strong value play, while Barnes and Siakam would have even higher ceilings.
- For Boston, Brown and Porzingis are both questionable, so Holiday and Tatum could be looking at huge usage rates if both end up out. Horford would likely start if KP sits, while Hauser would be my best guess as Brown’s replacement.
- Barrett is questionable with a migraine that kept him out last game, so look for Josh Hart to start again if he remains out, and after seeing 43 minutes as a starter last game he’d be a top value target on both sites.
- Caruso is questionable with his toe injury, and if he misses a third straight game, Dosunmu and Carter would pick up his bench minutes, while White and LaVine get even bigger usage bumps with DDR already out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Giannis is out for Milwaukee with a calf strain, so Bobby Portis should draw the start at PF and is a top play of the slate for just $5,700 on both sites. Lillard is looking at a big usage bump and is now a top play at PG, while Beasley, Middleton, and Lopez are more appealing cheap options too.
- Darius Garland is out with a neck strain, and with Jerome/Okoro/Rubio all still out, we’re looking at a ton of minutes for Mitchell, LeVert, and Strus, and all three are top cash game targets. I’m expecting LeVert to draw the start, but he’d still be a top target if he comes off the bench and they go with Niang or Merrill in the starting lineup.
- Toumani Camara drew the start last night over Thybulle, so I’d expect that to continue today. Camara saw 25 minutes in a Jazz blowout but still managed over 20 FP, so even in another potential blowout to Cleveland tonight (11-point spread currently), he should still be on your cash game value radar.
- Devin Booker is back for Phoenix, so this will be the debut of their big three all starting together. For now, I’m steering clear of the Suns as it’s going to be hard for anyone to have a ceiling game with so much spread-out usage now.
- DeRozan is out for personal reasons, so we could see Patrick Williams get back in the starting lineup, and if so, he’d be one of my favorite values of the slate. On the Orlando side, they’ll remain without Fultz, so Anthony Black should continue to start, while Gary Harris should be back to help with SG/SF depth.
- Anunoby and Trent are both likely out for Toronto, so I’d expect to see something similar to the last game with Porter starting and bench guards Flynn/Dick still seeing more minutes than him.
- Trae Young is off the injury report and will return for the Hawks, so Bogdanovic goes back to the bench.
- Batum remains out for personal reasons so look for Covington to start again and all the forwards to see bumps in minutes
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Caris LeVert ($6,100) is projected for 36 minutes tonight as the likely starter for Garland, and he’s the first guy I’m locking into cash games. He should be easy to fit in at either SG or SF, given how cheap he is. With an almost guaranteed 5x value floor, I would not be looking to fade him in your main build. Max Strus ($5,800) is also an excellent value at the SG/SF positions likely to see 35+ minutes with very little wing depth behind him.
- With Giannis out Bobby Portis ($5,700) is the best p/$ play at the PF/C spots, as he should draw the start and see 30+ minutes. Portis has gone for 25+ FP in five straight games off the bench, so with a likely 30 FP floor today his price is too good to pass up in any format.
- With DeRozan off the floor this year, Coby White ($5,400) has seen a 7.7% increase in usage, and after dropping $100 in salary from last game, he’s one of the best values of the slate. White has gone for 25+ FP in six straight games, so with a 5-6x value floor and a 7-8x ceiling if Caruso ends up out, I’d lock him in one of your PG spots. Zach LaVine ($7,900) is also an excellent target with no DDR, and if Patrick Williams ($4,300) draws the start I’d consider him a top value play at the SF/PF spots.
- DAL/WSH is by far the highest projected scoring game of the slate, so I’d be looking to get at least some exposure to it in cash games. The Wizards side is more appealing to me from a salary savings standpoint with either Deni Avdija ($5,700) or Tyus Jones ($5,800). Jones has yet to have a ceiling game this year, but tonight he definitely has the potential for it, and this may be our last chance to play him for under $6k. Avdija has gone for 21+ FP in every game this year and his salary has yet to go over $6k, so with a solid 30+ minute role in a likely high scoring game, he’s one of the best cash game values at SF/PF.
- I mentioned him earlier, but Toumani Camara ($3,900) is going to be hard to fade in cash games given his new starting role and likely 25-30 minutes. Goga Bitadze ($4,600) is looking like a solid punt play at center after another $100 drop in salary, and both DeAndre Hunter ($5,000) and DeAnthony Melton ($5,400) are two of my favorite targets in that price range if you need to fill a final spot for cheap.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Levert ($6,400) and Strus ($5,600) are still top cash game values, and Donovan Mitchell ($9,100) comes at a $600 discount to FanDuel and is an even better spend up cash game target.
- Portis ($5,700) is still my favorite p/$ play at the PF/C spots, and even Brook Lopez ($5,400) is cash game viable looking at a usage bump at a great price.
- White ($5,500) and Williams ($3,900) remain excellent values from Chicago, and both LaVine ($7,700) and Vucevic ($7,800) are too cheap given their usage bumps with no DDR so I’d use at least one in your main build.
- Avdija ($6,200) is a bit pricier than I’d hoped for, and I’ll likely go with either Jones ($5,700) or Gafford ($5,400) for cheap Wizards exposure. Coulibaly ($4,500) and even Kispert ($4,000) are excellent GPP plays.
- Camara ($3,800) remains a top extreme value play, and also for cheap, I’m looking at Reddish ($4,800), Melton ($5,500), and Hunter ($5,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
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Good luck today!