NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/21/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-21 23:16:08

Eight games to begin the week with the Cavs, Warriors, Heat, and Knicks on back-to-backs so we’ll see their injury reports later. Klay Thompson will almost certainly sit out for the Warriors while the other three b2b teams each have some unknowns with injuries. Around 2PM we learned that Klay, Curry, and Green are all out for the Warriors while Wiggins and Looney are questionable.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Paul George is questionable with knee soreness and if out we’d likely see Terance Mann draw the start while Jackson, Wall, and Powell will all have to carry more offense. Kawhi Leonard isn’t seeing DFS relevant minutes for his price so I wouldn’t give him much of a bump if George sits.

• Bam Adebayo is questionable with his knee contusion and if out we’d likely see Jovic start at C and Highsmith join the starting five while Lowry would have to carry a lot of the offense especially if Gabe Vincent (Q) ends up out as well. Dewayne Dedmon is also questionable so Jovic could be looking at huge minutes if Dedmon/Adebayo are both out.

• Wendell Carter is questionable with plantar fascia and if out we’d see Mo Bamba start again and although his price is starting to creep up near $6k he’d still be a solid play with 40+ FP upside. Bol Bol would also be a more appealing play as he’s shown 40+ FP ceilings when Banchero and Carter both sit.

• Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney are both questionable and if out we’d likely see Anthony Lamb and JaMychal Green draw the starts and all the starters would get usage bumps.

• Andrew Nembhard is questionable with a knee bruise and if out we’d likely see Aaron Nesmith draw the start as Mathurin seems to be cemented as the 6th man for Indy.

• Trey Murphy is questionable with a foot contusion but with Zion Williamson on track to return Murphy’s absence would just give some more bench minutes to Nance and Marshall.

• Darius Bazley is questionable and could return to help back up the forward spots while Isaiah Joe is also Q and could help with some wing depth if active. Tre Mann was upgraded to Q at 1:30PM so he could be available to help at the guard spots.

• Cam Reddish is officially questionable but hopefully we learn his status before lock as Quentin Grimes would be a top value play if Reddish remains out. Derrick Rose is also questionable but his minutes would just be absorbed by Quickley and McBride.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Warriors have ruled out Curry, Klay, and Draymond so Jordan Poole immediately jumps to being one of the top plays of the slate looking at a massive usage bump. Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga are the likely starters for Klay and Dray and both are top value options especially if Wiggins (Q) also ends up out.

• The Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson so Strus and Jovic should continue to start with Jovic being a solid value play while Lowry and Adebayo (if active) remain the top offensive weapons.

• Paolo Banchero remains out for Orlando so Chuma Okeke should continue to start but doesn’t offer much upside at his current price unless Carter is also out.

• Zion Williamson is probable and likely to return today so all the starters will take usage hits while Nance, Murphy, and Marshall are off the DFS radar now.

• Damian Lillard hurt his calf again and will be out indefinitely so Anfernee Simons slides to PG and has a much higher ceiling while Shaedon Sharpe will likely join the starting lineup and is a decent value play.

• If Cam Reddish is out again we’ll likely see Quentin Grimes draw another start and if he sees the 30+ minutes he saw last game as a starter he has to be be considered a top value play against OKC.

• Aleksej Pokusevski is out for OKC so we should see Robinson-Earl start at C while all the other starters get slight usage bumps.

• Mike Conley will miss at least two weeks with a leg strain so Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, and Collin Sexton will all help at PG with Beasley, Sexton or THT likely joining the starting five.

• Caris LeVert rolled his ankle yesterday and is out so Lamar Stevens should see a bump in minutes as the starter while Osman and Okoro will absorb most of LeVert’s minutes off the bench. Kevin Love is also Q and if out Osman, Lopez, and the other bigs would absorb his minutes.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Jordan Poole ($6,600) is the first guy to lock in with Curry/Klay/Dray all out and Jonathan Kuminga ($4,000) is the next guy I’m locking in for cash games. Moses Moody ($3,800) will be a top value play as well if he ends up starting for Klay.

• If Reddish sits then Quentin Grimes ($3,500) will be another value play that’s hard to fade as he’s just too cheap for a starter likely to see 30+ minutes coming off a 30 FP game in the same situation in a projected high scoring, close game with OKC.

• Also in that game I really like Josh Giddey ($6,800) for OKC as the Thunder are in a nice spot at home against the Knicks and with Pokusevski out there’s even less competition for usage and Giddey is at a great price for someone with 40+ FP upside as he’s shown in three of his last six games. Jalen Williams ($5,100) can also be considered a top value target for OKC coming off a 38+ FP game in 33 minutes.

• With Banchero out Jalen Suggs ($6,600) has really taken off going for 35+ FP in three straight games so this may be the last chance we can play him for under $7k and he draws a nice matchup with the Pacers today. For a player that can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways and could be looking at an even bigger usage bump if Carter ends up out, I think he’s just a bit too cheap to fade given the upside and the matchup today.

• Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,200) is projecting very well for Utah with Conley out as he saw 31 minutes last game but I would only consider him for cash games if he ended up starting as there’s safer value out there with higher upside. For Utah I’m looking at Jordan Clarkson ($6,000) and Malik Beasley ($5,700) with Clarkson my preferred play between the two at those prices.

• Other guys I like for the price include Patrick Williams ($4,300), Al Horford ($5,500), Jalen Smith ($5,400), Jaden McDaniels ($5,300), Grant Williams ($4,400), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,800), and Reggie Jackson ($5,400).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Jordan Poole ($5,800) is even cheaper than FD and is the top play of the slate on DK while Jonathan Kuminga ($3,300) and Moses Moody ($3,000) are pretty much free squares if each replace Dray and Klay in the starting lineup.

• Quentin Grimes ($3,000) remains a top value play if Reddish is out while Josh Giddey ($6,800) and Jalen Williams ($4,300) remain excellent targets from OKC.

• Jalen Suggs ($6,300) is even cheaper than FD and squarely in play still while Malik Beasley ($4,600) is my favorite player to target from Utah as he’s $1,100 cheaper than FD while Clarkson is $400 more expensive at $6,400. Horton-Tucker ($3,700) has a nice discount as well and at that price I’d consider him a solid value play regardless if he starts or not.

• I also really like Anfernee Simons ($7,400) for $700 cheaper than FD as he’s too cheap for someone with a likely 35 FP floor and 50+ FP ceiling.

• Some other players to consider at nice prices are Rudy Gobert ($6,600), Jalen Smith ($5,100), Shaedon Sharpe ($3,800), Lu Dort ($5,100), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($3,600), Patrick Williams ($4,100), Jaden McDaniels ($4,700), and Reggie Jackson ($5,100).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn