NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 3
Seven game slate to end the week, and surprisingly no teams are on a back-to-back so we have everyone’s initial injury reports. The Cavs could get two starters back today, the Nets may get back two guards, the Thunder will be missing their top scorer, Portland will be without their top draft pick, and a few other big name starters are currently questionable.
If you’re looking for triple-doubles, then Doncic vs. Jokic is the game for you and easily my “must-watch” game of the slate. Meanwhile, Warriors-Thunder is currently the highest projected game of the slate and Cavs-Pacers has the closest spread.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Garland and Allen are IN) – Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are both questionable, and if either are active, I’ll be less likely to pay up for Mitchell or Mobley in cash games. If Garland sits, look for Okoro to join the starting lineup, while Allen out would likely give Niang another start.
- (Update: Haliburton and Smith are IN) – Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Smith are questionable for the Pacers after both sat last game. Haliburton out would likely give Andrew Nembhard another start with TJ McConnell also getting a big bump in minutes. Smith sitting would just give a slight bump in minutes to Jackson and Nwora.
- (Update: Barrett is OUT) – RJ Barrett is questionable with knee soreness that kept him out of last game, and if he remains out, we should see Josh Hart draw the start again and be a solid value option.
- (Update: Kyrie is IN, Kleber is OUT) – Kyrie Irving and Maxi Kleber are questionable for Dallas, so Josh Green would be in line to draw another start if Irving remains out, while Kleber sitting would give more minutes to Williams, Lively, and Powell.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the biggest name out today, and the Thunder could go a few different ways as far as his replacement starter. Isaiah Joe was his usual fill-in starter last season so that’s the best guess for now with Giddey moving to PG, but they could go with Wallace or Wiggins and keep Joe’s bench scoring in the same role. Overall though SGA out is a big boost to the usages for Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Holmgren, and I’d be looking to use at least 1-2 of them in your main build.
- The next biggest name out today is Scoot Henderson for Portland, as Malcolm Brogdon has been fantastic off the bench and now will be looking at a starting spot and a solid minutes bump. His price did increase $600-800 across the sites, but given his increase in minutes and usage I think he’s still cheap enough to be considered a top cash game play. Shaedon Sharpe will also be a more appealing play coming off a 50+ FP game in 42 minutes after Scoot got hurt.
- Daniel Gafford is back for Washington so Muscala or Coulibaly won’t be seeing a spot start, and Kuzma takes a slight usage hit. Corey Kispert will be out though, so a slight bump in minutes to Shamet and the other guards/wings.
- Spencer Dinwiddie said he’ll play today so O’Neale goes back to the bench, and all the other starters take slight usage hits.
- Derrick Rose remains out for Memphis so look for Kennard, Konchar, and Gilyard to keep their bench roles from last game
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I mentioned him earlier, but Malcolm Brogdon ($6,500) is a clear cash play today looking at 30+ minutes in a starting role in a home matchup with a Memphis team that is 5th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating. He’s gone for 31+ FP in his last three games while averaging just 26 MPG in that span, so 30 FP should be his floor today, while 40+ FP is a very likely outcome and I won’t be fading a guy with 6-7x value as his expected output. Shaedon Sharpe ($7,100) only went up $400 in price after going for 52 FP, so he is absolutely in play for cash games as well, while Toumani Camara ($3,800) should be looking at 25+ minutes and is a decent extreme salary saver.
- Andrew Wiggins ($5,000) has really struggled to begin the year, shooting just 2 for 12 from three with just three total assists and eleven total rebounds through five games. His price in game one was $6.8k, and after another $500 drop from last game he is at one of if not his lowest price ever on FanDuel, and he’s not going to put up under 20 FPPG forever. He absolutely comes with some risk and I can’t blame anyone for crossing him off their cash game list, but for $5k in the highest projected scoring game of the slate, I think he’s worth the risk at this low of a price with the hope of a 20 FP floor and the potential of a 30+ FP breakout game. Klay Thompson ($5,700) has been a steady 25-28 FP producer in four games this year, and after a $100 price drop from last game he makes for a very solid cash game play as well.
- With SGA out there is a ton of usage up for grabs for the Thunder, and most of it should go to Josh Giddey ($7,900), Jalen Williams ($6,700), and Chet Holmgren ($8,000). Giddey is my favorite cash game target from that group, as he should be looking at a 35%+ usage rate as the top ball-handler, and with two straight 35+ FP games I think that’s an easy floor for him today with a great shot at 45-50 FP. Williams saw a $400 price increase and his now at at his most expensive salary of the season, but he’s looking at huge minutes (38 last game) with SGA out, and is a solid cash game target looking at 30-40 FP. If Isaiah Joe ($3,900) does indeed start I think he is a decent cash game target that comes with low floor risk, as Wallace, Wiggins, and likely Micic will be heavily in the mix for guard minutes with him.
- More cheap guys I like today include Grant Williams ($5,000), Ziaire Williams ($4,300), Xavier Tillman ($5,400), Jerami Grant ($6,100), and Kyle Lowry ($4,800).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Malcolm Brogdon ($6,500) and Shaedon Sharpe ($7,300) remain excellent cash game plays, and Toumani Camara ($3,700) is even cheaper than FanDuel and is a solid p/$ play at the forward positions.
- Jalen Williams ($6,500) is my favorite cash game target from OKC, as he’s cheaper than FanDuel while Giddey is more expensive, and Chet Holmgren ($7,600) is $400 cheaper and should be a solid 40+ FP guy today.
- Nikola Vucevic ($7,500) only went up $300 after his second consecutive 52+ FP game, and against a Nets team that remains without Claxton, Vooch should feast against whoever they try to throw at him and he’s my favorite center for cash games.
- If you need a guy under $5k at one of the forward positions then I’d consider Grant Williams ($4,800), as he’s gone for 23+ FP in three of four games, is coming off a 38.25 FP game, and should see a boost in minutes with Kleber out. He’s not going to shoot 7 for 9 from three most games like he did last game, but I love that he’s taken 8+ three point attempts in three of four games along with his ability to produce in a variety of stats, so he’s on my radar as a guy to fill out a cash game lineup for cheap.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!