NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/30/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-30 22:57:36

We’re closing out November with a monster 13 game slate with the Knicks, Clippers, and Trail Blazers the only teams on a back-to-back so we’ll get those injury reports later.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses, so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jaylen Brown missed last game and is questionable today with neck stiffness, and if he remains out, then Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum would get big usage bumps and be very strong plays, as both went for around 50 FP last game with Brown out, while Grant Williams would likely start for Brown.

• CJ McCollum, Larry Nance, and Naji Marshall are questionable for the Pelicans, and if McCollum remains out, look for Jose Alvarado to continue to start and see around 30 minutes. Nance and Marshall being out would make Herb Jones and Trey Murphy higher upside plays with less forward depth along with Zion Williamson. (Update: McCollum is OUT, Marshall is OUT, Nance is IN)

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable with a hip contusion, and if he ends up out, then Josh Giddey would be a top play of the slate looking at a big usage bump, and and he’s still under $7k on both sites. Tre Mann could also join the starting lineup, and he’s extremely cheap, especially at $3.3k on DK. (Update: SGA is OUT)

• The Heat have Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Dewayne Dedmon, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent all questionable, which might be a record for one team. I would expect most of these guys to end up playing, as they would have just 6 players available if all of them ended up out. Either way Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo are the healthiest Heat starters and will carry most of the offense, and once we learn who is out from those seven Q guys we can start looking at potential value plays for MIA.

• Mo Bamba missed last game and is questionable with back spasms today, and if he’s out Bol Bol would be a higher upside play with only Moe Wagner and Admiral Schofield as center depth behind him. (Update: Bamba is OUT)

• Dillon Brooks is questionable with thigh soreness, and if he’s out we could see David Roddy join the starting lineup, but he would be a low upside value play, while guys like John Konchar and the other starters would get slight usage bumps and be better plays.

• The Spurs list Keita Bates-Diop, Josh Richardson, and Romeo Langford all questionable, so we would likely see Doug McDermott or Isaiah Roby start at PF if Bates-Diop ends up out, while Malaki Branham would be the top bench guard if Richardson and Langford end up out.

• Jaden McDaniels has missed the last two games with an illness and is questionable today, and if he’s out, either Austin Rivers or Jaylen Nowell would join the starting lineup, and the bench forward depth would really be tested for MIN.

• Reggie Jackson is now listed questionable with a back contusion so Terance Mann and John Wall could be looking at most of the PG minutes while Coffey would be a more appealing value play as well if Jackson sits.

• Josh Hart is questionable with an ankle sprain he suffered last night and if out we would likely see Shaedon Sharpe start for him while all the starters would get usage bumps and Justise Winslow would be an even better value play especially with Nassir Little officially out now.

• Troy Brown is questionable for the Lakers and Austin Reaves would likely start if he’s out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Magic are on track to get both Cole Anthony and Markelle Fultz back, so they should handle most of the PG minutes, as Jalen Suggs is out. Wendell Carter and Chuma Okeke also remain out, so Banchero and Bol Bol should get most of the PF/C minutes, especially if Bamba can’t play through his Q tag.

• Ben Simmons is out for the Nets, so either Joe Harris or Seth Curry should start, and with Yuta Watanabe also out, I’d expect Markieff Morris to get rotation minutes while Irving and Durant will have to carry even more of the offense.

• Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poeltl are both out for the Spurs, so we should see Zach Collins start at C and be a very strong value play, while Bates-Diop, McDermott, and Roby are all candidates to take Sochan’s starting spot.

• Karl-Anthony Towns will be out a while with a calf injury, so Rudy Gobert gets a big usage bump as the top big man, while Kyle Anderson could start at PF for KAT and Naz Reid will get a bump in minutes as the top backup big man.

• Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love remain out for CLE, so Wade should continue to start with Evan Mobley sliding to center, while Osman and Lopez are the top PF/Cs available off the bench.

• For LAC/UTA George, Kennard, and Kawhi all remain out, so Mann, Coffey, and Sexton should continue to start there. Norman Powell is now likely out with a groin strain so Mann, Coffey, and Batum will all have to cover more SG/SF minutes.

• Michael Porter and Jeff Green remain out for DEN, so Bruce Brown should continue to start while Cancar, Reed, and Nnaji are the top bench forwards.

• Patrick Beverley is back from his suspension, but Darvin Ham wouldn’t commit to him getting his starting PG spot back, as Dennis Schroder has played well over the last three games, so we’ll see who starts there in the final game of the night.

• Other lineup news today includes CP3 out, so Payne should keep starting, Ingram still out, so Trey Murphy should keep starting, and Gary Trent & Scottie Barnes potentially starting after coming off the bench last game.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• With Poeltl and Sochan out Zach Collins ($4,500) should start and see 25+ minutes and potentially more, making him a top p/$ play of the slate in a nice matchup with OKC. Whoever starts among Bates-Diop, McDermott, and Roby will be in play for value as well.

• Nic Claxton ($6,100) is also projecting as a top p/$ play, as he’s gone for over 40 FP in three of his last four games, and now with Ben Simmons out, he will get a usage bump and is looking at a 50+ FP ceiling at a great price.

• With KAT, McLaughlin, and Prince all out for MIN, we should see Kyle Anderson ($4,600) start and see 30+ minutes, while Jaylen Nowell ($4,200) is coming off a 34 FP game and will be looking at more usage and minutes today, especially if McDaniels ends up out as well, so he and Anderson are very strong p/$ value targets today. Rudy Gobert ($7,500) is also looking at a big usage and ceiling bump as the top big man, and his price will likely be closer to $9k before KAT returns.

• Collin Sexton ($5,100) remains at an excellent price for someone looking at 35+ minutes if LAC can keep it relatively close today, as he’s gone for over 27-34 FP in each of his last four games, giving him a great shot at another 5-6x value output today.

• Justise Winslow ($5,200) also remains at a great price for a starter looking at 30+ minutes, and he’s produced around 6x value in each of his last four games and is in play again today at his same price as yesterday.

• Cameron Payne ($6,000) keeps getting a reduction in price, as he’s only gone for over 30 FP once in his last four games, but a home matchup against his former Bulls team is a great spot for a bounce back game, and for someone who has shown 40+ FP upside as a starter, it will be hard to fade him at this price.

• More guys I like for the price on FD today include Trey Murphy ($4,900), Gary Harris ($4,300), Al Horford ($5,400), and Royce ONeale ($5,400),

Looking at DraftKings:

• Kyle Anderson ($3,800) and Jaylen Nowell ($3,900) are both just way too cheap given their likely 25-30 minutes roles today with KAT out and potentially 30+ minutes for both if McDaniels also ends up out, so look for at least one if not both of them to be in most cash game lineups today. Rudy Gobert ($6,800) is also way too cheap for his expanded usage with no KAT, and for someone with a 50+ FP ceiling now, he’s my favorite p/$ center on DK today.

• Zach Collins ($4,500) remains a solid play as the likely starter for Poeltl while Nicolas Claxton ($5,800) is another favorite p/$ center today in a nice matchup with Washington. Mitchell Robinson ($4,500) is also in play at that price, as he’s gone for 25-35 FP in three straight games.

• Justise Winslow ($4,600) remains at a great price along with Collin Sexton ($5,400) if you need a couple cheap starters with 30+ FP upside. I also really like the price of Jerami Grant ($7,100), as he comes at an $1,100 discount compared to FD and has gone for 40-50 FP in three straight games and has a really safe 35-40 minute range.

• Keep Tre Mann ($3,300) and Josh Giddey ($6,700) on your radar if SGA ends up out, as both would be looking at big usage bumps as the top guards available for OKC.

• Some other solid p/$ plays on DK include John Collins ($5,700), Quentin Grimes ($4,000), Herb Jones ($4,800), Norman Powell ($5,300), Aaron Nesmith ($3,700), Keegan Murray ($3,800), and Kevin Huerter ($5,500).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn