NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 30
We have some big game totals on today’s nine game slate, as five are currently above 227 with the ATL/SAS matchup blowing the rest away at 247.5. Miami gets the Pacers boost with their 238.5 total and just a 2.5 point spread, and the LAL/OKC matchup is the third highest game total at 233.5, even with the Lakers on a back-to-back.
The Pistons, Jazz, and Clippers are the other teams on a back-to-back so keep an eye out for their injury reports later, and we already know Markkanen will remain out for Utah.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jimmy Butler is questionable for Miami, so we’d likely see Josh Richardson start if he sits, and I will be loading up on 3-4 Heat players in cash games in a fantastic matchup with Indy.
- Victor Wembanyama is questionable with right hip tightness, and if he sits, the rest of the Spurs starters would get big usage bumps in a great matchup with Atlanta. The Spurs could start a bunch of different guys for Wemby since they can slide Johnson to PF, but all of the starters will be cash game viable depending on your positional needs and salary available.
- DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Alex Caruso are questionable for the Bulls, and it’s an 8PM tip so hopefully we learn their statuses before lock. If all three end up out, I’d be looking to get at least two of White, Williams, and Vucevic in your main build, while Dosunmu and Craig could find themselves in the starting lineup as decent value options. If just one of LaVine or DDR are out, then the other would be a much more appealing play.
- Brandon Miller is questionable with a left ankle sprain, and if out, we’d likely see Washington or McGowens join the starting lineup.
- Isaiah Jackson and TJ McConnell are questionable for Indy, so guys like Nesmith, Walker, and Nwora would absorb Jackson’s time if out, while Mathurin and Nembhard would pick up McConnell’s time.
- Royce ONeale is now questionable for Brooklyn, so Finney-Smith and all the forwards would get a minutes boost if he’s out.
- LBJ, Reddish, Christie, and Hayes are all questionable for the Lakers. Austin Reaves could be looking at a big time boost in minutes if if any combo of the first three guys are out, while Wood would absorb most of Hayes’ time.
- Clarkson and Olynyk are questionable for Utah, so George and Sexton could be looking at big usage bumps if Clarkson sits, while Olynyk out would make Fontecchio an even better value play and give a slight boost to Collins and the other bigs.
- Norman Powell is questionable for the Clippers, and if out we’d see more minutes for Westbrook and the other guards/wings.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS, as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. So make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- LaMelo Ball is going to be out awhile with his ankle injury, so Miller should continue to start (if active today), and all the starters will have to carry much more offense.
- Cam Thomas will return from his ankle injury on some kind of minutes limit, so we’ll see if he gets his starting spot back or is eased in off the bench. Smith remains out with his back injury.
- Jalen Smith is out for Indy, so all of Toppin, Turner, Nesmith, and Jackson will get his minutes.
- Lauri Markkanen remains out for Utah, so look for Fontecchio to continue to start, and we’ll see if Kessler continues to come off the bench with Yurtseven starting.
- Anthony Edwards is likely out with a hip pointer, and Troy Brown is expected to start for him. Brown is a decent value option who could see 25+ minutes, but I’m more interested in Kyle Anderson and the other starters for cash game purposes.
- Cam Reddish returned yesterday, but Max Christie still started over him so I’d expect that to continue.
- Pat Connaughton is out for Milwaukee so all of Payne, Beauchamp, and Jackson will get his minutes.
- Chris Paul and Gary Payton are out for the Warriors, leaving a lot of bench guard minutes to Moody, Joseph, and Podziemski. Wiggins is now out as well, so Moody likely starts for him and is a pretty solid value option.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create up to 300 lineups in seconds based on your custom settings with our lineup optimizer tool.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Edwards likely out, Minnesota has a few guys popping as top p/$ plays, as there is a lot of extra usage available to go around now in a great matchup with Utah. Kyle Anderson ($5,600) could still see 30+ minutes off the bench and he’ll be lower-owned than if he was starting, so keep him on your cash game radar even if doesn’t start. Mike Conley ($5,300) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,400) are excellent values as well, and Rudy Gobert ($8,000) is a top center option looking for some revenge against his former team.
- The Hawks have a massive 127.5 total currently, so I’d try to get at least Trae Young ($9,600) in your main build, and possibly Murray ($7,900) or one of the cheaper forwards as well.
- Charlotte got blown out by the Knicks last game, so their prices are still in check with Ball out. Terry Rozier ($7,800) and Miles Bridges ($7,800) still have massive ceilings if this game can stay competitive, and both Gordon Hayward ($5,600) and Brandon Miller ($5,500) are top value targets.
- Buddy Hield ($5,000) had a couple of games under 23 FP so his price dropped $300, but in the second highest projected game total of the slate with just a two-point spread, I will be going right back to him in cash games. Bruce Brown ($5,300) and Obi Toppin ($4,700) also remain solid value options from Indy.
- Simone Fontecchio ($4,200) is still too cheap for a projected starter seeing 25+ minutes, and his price is going to get a big bump after going for 25+ FP in his last two games. Walker Kessler ($6,300) continues to put up big numbers even in under 30 minutes off the bench, but his minutes should continue to rise like his price is, so keep taking advantage of this discounted salary for a guy with 40+ FP upside.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Kyle Anderson ($4,500) is just way too cheap given his likely 25+ minute floor today, and at a $1.1k price discount to FanDuel, he’s an absolute lock for me in DK cash games. Conley ($6,400) is a bit too pricey, but Alexander-Walker ($4,900) is still a decent p/$ play, while Rudy Gobert ($7,400) is way too cheap even after his $800 price increase given the usage bump he’ll get with no Edwards.
- Nic Claxton ($6,300) has gone for 30+ FP in his last three games played and his price hasn’t budged, so at a $1,400 discount to FanDuel, he’s a fantastic cash game center target on DK in a great matchup with Charlotte.
- Trae Young ($9,700) is still my top spend up of the slate for cash games, and Saddiq Bey ($5,500) would be my next p/$ target from Atlanta.
- Fontecchio ($4,800) and Kessler ($6,100) remain great p/$ plays from Utah, and one other guy worth mentioning is Josh Giddey ($6,100), as his price dropped another $400 and he’s now at his lowest salary of the season and possibly ever on DraftKings.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!