NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/19/22
Hopefully yesterday’s two games got you back in to the swing of things for NBA DFS as we have a huge 12-game slate today to really get us back in to the full process.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important names that are out today include LaMelo Ball, Zach LaVine, Jaren Jackson, Myles Turner, Marvin Bagley, Lonzo Ball, Cole Anthony, Seth Curry, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Keegan Murray, Victor Oladipo, Chris Boucher, Dillon Brooks, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Jonathan Isaac, Joe Harris, Landry Shamet, Davis Bertans, Alec Burks, Ziaire Williams, and JaeSean Tate while some less important names out today are Corey Kispert, Danny Green, Jaxson Hayes, Ricky Rubio, Otto Porter, Gary Payton, Otto Porter, Quentin Grimes, Moe Wagner, Dylan Windler, Daniel Theis, Udoka Azubuike, Khem Birch, Kira Lewis, Trendon Watford, Frank Ntilikina, Omer Yurtseven, TJ Warren, Collin Gillespie, Isaiah Livers, Jae Crowder, TyTy Washington, Eric Paschall, Olivier Sarr, and EJ Liddell.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
With no LaMelo Ball (or Miles Bridges) the Hornets have a ton of minutes and usage available to start the year so Terry Rozier will have to do a lot from the PG position while Oubre, Hayward, and Washington all have big upside in what should be a close game with the Spurs. Speaking of the Spurs they too have a different look with Dejounte Murray out of the picture as Tre Jones is now the starting PG and a very strong value play on both sites while Jeremy Sochan will likely start at PF and is a decent value play on FD for $4k. Zach Lavine was ruled out around noon today so DeRozan and Vucevic will have to carry most of the offense now while Dosunmu, White, Dragic, and Caruso will all absorb LaVine’s minutes.
ORL-DET should be a fun game with two rookies facing off in Paolo Banchero and Jaden Ivey and HOU rookie Jabari Smith gets to debut against ATL in the highest game total of the slate (233) making this a top game to stack. The Grizzlies will be without Ziaire Williams and likely Dillon Brooks as well so John Konchar is likely to start at SF and is a solid value play under $4k on both sites along with Santi Aldama who will likely start for Jackson.
Donovan Mitchell, Dejounte Murray, Rudy Gobert, Jalen Brunson, Monte Morris, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Will Barton, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Royce ONeale will all be looking to start strong for their new teams and it will be great to see Zion Williamson and Jamal Murray back on the court as well as Ben Simmons.
I mentioned ORL/DET and HOU/ATL but I also like WSH/IND, NOP/BKN, CLE/TOR, and POR/SAC as top games to target and to stack in GPPS.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Tre Jones ($5,100), Cameron Johnson ($4,300), John Konchar ($3,500), Kelly Oubre ($5,100), Saddiq Bey ($5,200), Jeremy Sochan ($4,000), and Caleb Martin ($3,900) are some of my favorite top projected p/$ values of the slate and from that group I’m most interested in Jones, Johnson, Oubre, and Bey as they should see the most minutes and usage.
- Other plays with very strong p/$ projections that I will be looking at for cash games are Terry Rozier ($7,200), Isaiah Stewart ($5,000), Jabari Smith ($4,800), Josh Giddey ($6,000), Desmond Bane ($6,300), Clint Capela ($5,800), and Franz Wagner ($5,700).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jalen Green ($5,400) is jumping out as underpriced and one of my favorite plays of the slate along with Devin Vassell ($4,600) and Tre Jones ($4,200) who will both handle a lot more offense with Murray gone. I won’t be using four Spurs in cash games but Keldon Johnson ($5,900) and Jakob Poeltl ($5,800) are also a bit too cheap with their increased roles and nice matchup with Charlotte.
- Terry Rozier ($7,300) and Kelly Oubre ($5,500) remain solid plays along with John Konchar ($3,700) and some other names I like for the price include Alperen Sengun ($5,600), Desmond Bane ($6,100), Bam Adebayo ($6,400), Wendell Carter ($6,100), Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300), Cade Cunningham ($7,000), Tyrese Haliburton ($7,200), Domantas Sabonis ($8,100), and Lauri Markkanen ($5,300).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn