NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
We have a solid seven-game slate on tap today, with only two teams on a back-to-back (IND and CHA) and not too many unknowns as far as injury news at the moment. Some big names have been ruled out though, so there are some solid value plays already in play as well as some studs looking at higher ceilings with teammates missing.
Overall it feels like a pretty neat and tidy slate, as all of the games lock between 7pm EST and 8pm EST, so most of the injury news should be available before lock or shortly after making late swaps less of a concern. Outside of Jimmy Butler against the Bulls, Domantas Sabonis against the Thunder and Kevin Love against the T-Wolves, there isn’t even much relevant revenge games (James Johnson and Max Strus woooo) or even one single birthday, so it’s pretty quiet on narrative street as well. Mondays are the worst.
UPDATE: I’ve been made aware Tyrese Haliburton has a leap year birthday of February 29th and is celebrating it today. By far the most relevant news on narrative street today.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
The biggest lineup changes on NBA starting lineups are a couple of point guards missing with no Kyle Lowry for the Heat as he is out for personal reasons and no Kyrie Irving since he is still ineligible for games in New York. The last stretch of games Lowry missed Gabe Vincent became a regular starter, so look for him to see regular starters’ minutes and be a strong value play. As expected on the CourtIQ with Lowry off the floor Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Herro have the highest usage rates at 24%, 26%, and 29.5% respectively with Butler scoring the most FPPM at 1.29. I don’t mind Herro as a tournament play, but for cash games I would use at least one of Butler or Adebayo if not both.
Now on to the Nets with no Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons, or Joe Harris. This is a pretty interesting CourtIQ as LaMarcus Aldridge leads the team in usage at 31% while Andre Drummond (ignoring Day’Ron Sharpe) leads the team in FPPM at 1.59 with Aldridge right behind him at 1.48. Just based on the minutes and upside I’m going with Drummond if we’re choosing a Nets big man to target while Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, and James Johnson will all see an increase in usage and upside for solid mid-range and value plays. I am hesitant to go too heavy on Nets players today though as the Raptors have allowed the 4th slowest pace on the season (found on our NBA Team Stats page) and there are other nice spots for value today.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Right now over in The Situation Room Fred VanVleet is the biggest name with a “Questionable” tag and with OG Anunoby already out if VanVleet does end up sitting it would be a nice boost for Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam against a depleted Nets squad. The only other Q tags with some DFS relevancy are Doug McDermott, Brandon Clarke, Caleb Martin and Cody Martin whose absences would give slight boosts to Keldon Johnson / Lonnie Walker, Kyle Anderson, Max Strus and Kelly Oubre respectively.
We’ve seen the Cavaliers already without Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, and Rajon Rondo, so look for a similar rotation today with Brandon Goodwin starting at PG and Cedi Osman / Tim Frazier helping behind him.
Josh Giddey is another pretty big name out a 2nd game in a row with hip soreness making Shai Gilgeous-Alexander a top play in a great matchup with the Kings while Tre Mann should continue to start and be a solid play on a nice hot streak of four straight games over 34 FP. Mann is much more appealing on DK where he is $5,400 compared to FD at $7,200.
It could be relevant down the road but right now I’m not putting much stock in to Markelle Fultz being available for the first time this season, as he should be on a pretty strict minutes limit and be eased in off the bench for at least a few games if not the rest of the season.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA News Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Gabe Vincent is popping out as a great p/$ play, as he’s just $3,900 and projected to see around 30 minutes. The Heat could mix it up, but if he’s confirmed starting I’m on board with him as one of the first people to lock in. Brandon Goodwin is also popping as a top value play and I do still like him at $5,300 especially if we know he’ll see 35+ minutes again, but newly added Tim Frazier has had some practices under his belt and should be more involved, so Goodwin does carry a little more risk today but is still squarely in play. I would like Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge more if they were getting more than ~20 MPG, but they do have excellent salaries today and pretty high ceilings. Other value guys to consider include Jarred Vanderbilt, James Johnson, and Jeremy Lamb and for mid-range salaries I’m liking Lauri Markkanen, Scottie Barnes, and Cole Anthony.
On DraftKings there is a lot of similar value in Gabe Vincent, Brandon Goodwin, Jeremy Lamb, James Johnson, and LaMarcus Aldridge, while lower salaries compared to FD has guys like Bruce Brown, Cedi Osman, and Kyle Anderson (better if Brandon Clarke sits) with solid p/$ projections. Some mid-range guys I’m liking include Andre Drummond, Harrison Barnes, Scottie Barnes, and if VanVleet sits then Gary Trent becomes very appealing at $6,200.
UPDATE: Malcolm Brogdon is OUT — He was a great play on FD but now Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield get big boosts as the top ball-handlers and have big time ceilings in a great matchup with Orlando.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn