NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Today we have a solid 8-game slate with only one team on a back-to-back (Rockets) as well as a couple games that are rematches of their last opponent with the Pacers-Magic and Knicks-76ers and most of our injury news looks to be with point guards. No birthdays to report and it looks like only P.J. Tucker is out for revenge, so narrative street is pretty quiet although it is Kevin Porter Jr. bobblehead night!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Checking in on NBA Starting Lineups most lineup changes are at the point guard position with the biggest name potentially returning being Darius Garland. Garland has been dealing with a bone bruise in his back and his last health update was that he took part in a “very light practice” that was mostly a walk-through with some film. If we get word that he will play with no limitations then he would definitely be in play at under $8k on both FD and DK. Brandon Goodwin would take the biggest hit moving back to the bench but it is the first game of the night so we will know before lock to Goodwin or not to Goodwin who is still very cheap if he ends up starting in a great matchup.
Keeping with point guard news Cameron Payne is on track to return tonight and it’s been confirmed he will start when he returns so we have some great value already in the last game of the night. Payne might not get 35+ minutes but if we assume he sees even 25-30 minutes he is a slam dunk at his current salary on all sites.
UPDATE: Devin Booker is now OUT in health and safety protocols so Payne becomes an even better value play while all of the other starters get big usage bumps and are all in play.
Another lineup spot to monitor is who starts for Aaron Wiggins for the Thunder. Wiggins is out with an ankle sprain so we could see Aleksej Pokusevski, Vit Krejci, or Lindy Waters join the starting five. Of those three Pokusevski is the only one I would consider using regardless who starts as he should see the most minutes between them and he has shown big upside when given 25+ minutes. He is an excellent $4,100 on DK while a bit pricier at $5,200 on FD. Other OKC news is Josh Giddey and Lu Dort will remain out so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be looking to keep up his 60+ FP game streak in Denver and Tre Mann should continue to start.
With Lowry out again look for Gabe Vincent to start and be a very strong value play around $4k on both sites as well as Garrison Mathews who will likely start with Eric Gordon resting on the back-to-back. Trey Lyles started the Kings last game and if he does again tonight as we are projecting he should be another popular value play at almost minimum price everywhere coming off a 33+ FP game in 30 minutes. Winslow remains out for Portland so Keon Johnson likely starts again but is too risky to use with so much other great value today. Lastly Malcolm Brogdon should be back for the Pacers after resting a game and although we didn’t get to use him at $5,800 on FD he still has a great price of $6,300 today (Still $7,100 on DK).
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Over in The Situation Room it’s a couple point guards that are the biggest news to monitor today in Darius Garland and Kevin Porter Jr.. I already mentioned that Brandon Goodwin would take the biggest hit if Garland plays but Goodwin is still very cheap and will be very in play if Garland sits. It’s going to be crucial to hear what kind of restrictions if any Garland has if he does play as he is pretty cheap on both FD and DK at $7,700 and if it’s sounding like he’ll be full go then we can expect 34+ minutes in a great matchup with Charlotte.
There were some conflicting quotes on the status of Kevin Porter Jr. today with Stephen Silas saying he could be out today but later in the night a team source told a Rockets beat reporter that Houston is hopeful he will play today. Right now we’re going with questionable but my best guess is he ends up playing especially on his bobblehead night! Schroder is coming off a terrible 2 for 8 shooting game with 6 turnovers but if Porter Jr. does end up sitting I think we have to go back to him as he is still under $6k on both sites. Jalen Green and Jae’Sean Tate are also both in play with nice salaries especially with Eric Gordon out and while Garrison Mathews should start tonight and is a fine value play.
UPDATE: Kevin Porter Jr. is now probable and Eric Gordon is confirmed out. Green and Tate are still my favorite Rockets players tonight as well as Mathews for value.
Other relevant questionable players currently are Chris Duarte, Lance Stephenson, and Austin Rivers whose absences would give slight bumps to Duane Washington, Keifer Sykes, and Bryn Forbes respectively.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with Fanduel my favorite p/$ plays right now are Cameron Payne, Trey Lyles, and Gabe Vincent. Starting with those three in your lineup leaves you with over $8,000 per position remaining which will let you pick a few of your favorite studs and round it out with a couple solid mid-range guys. Drew Eubanks is also popping at $3,900 and I don’t mind him at all but I do think he’s not a necessary play with the other value options already mentioned. Some pretty cheap mid-range options I like include Josh Hart, Cole Anthony, Mike Conley, Franz Wagner, Lauri Markkanen, and Monte Morris.
Moving to Draftkings Trey Lyles is the top p/$ projected guy tonight and it feels like an unnecessary risk to fade him in single entry contests or cash games (assuming he starts again). Vincent and Payne are also too cheap for their expected roles today so I likely starting your core with those same three guys as FD. A name that I much prefer on DK over FD is Aleksej Pokusevski who is just $4,100 and should be looking at very solid minutes if he ends up starting or not. Other names popping include Keon Johnson, Garrison Mathews, and Drew Eubanks and as mentioned earlier Eubanks is the safest of that group while I much prefer Mathews over Johnson if you end up going that route. Remember to keep Brandon Goodwin and Dennis Schroder in the back of your mind if Garland and/or Porter Jr. sit.
UPDATE: With Devin Booker now out Payne is an even better value play while Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton are all very solid plays depending on your positional needs in builds.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
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