NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Happy Friday everyone! We have a nice and meaty 9-game slate to end the week, and for now we actually know a lot of players’ statuses, as we only have a handful of relevant questionable players. The Hawks, Bulls, Pistons, and Raptors are on a back-to-back, so keep an eye out for their updated injury reports later in the day. All in all it’s looking like a pretty fun slate with plenty of value and plenty of ways to go in your builds.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Right now on NBA Starting Lineups, it’s looking like almost every team could start the same lineup they did in their previous game outside of Eric Gordon taking back his starting SF spot over Garrison Mathews. Looking at teams’ benches the only things worth noting look like Marvin Bagley likely being available, Onyeka Okongwu remaining out, and Lance Stephenson is back for the Pacers while Chris Duarte is out. With the Rockets calling up two guards from the G-League yesterday in Daishen Nix and Trevelin Queen we are currently considering Dennis Schroder doubtful with his ankle injury.
Like their previous game, we should see Jaden McDaniels start for Anthony Edwards again as well as Landry Shamet for Devin Booker while Aleksej Pokusevski is almost guaranteed to start again for Aaron Wiggins after going for over 35 FP in 29 minutes last game and should be a popular play at around $5,000 on both sites in a nice matchup with Minnesota. Look for Cameron Payne to keep starting and see a bump in his minutes after only getting 20 his first game back and with VanVleet out again look for Malachi Flynn to continue to start and is a top value play on Draftkings at just $3,900.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
For a big Friday slate, The Situation Room is looking relatively quiet as far as big unknowns that could drastically change the slate. As mentioned earlier, the biggest news will be the status of Fred VanVleet as the Raptors have a nice home matchup with Orlando and Malachi Flynn is pretty much free on Draftkings. If VanVleet sits I love Scottie Barnes price on DK at $6,300 as well as Chris Boucher as a strong value play on both sites.
UPDATE: Fred VanVleet has been ruled OUT so Malachi Flynn is a top play on DK at $3,900.
The next big name to monitor is Tobias Harris, who is questionable with a non-covid illness and missed morning shootaround. Looking at the CourtIQ with Harris off the floor we see James Harden and Joel Embiid both with over 40% usage rates and both scoring over 1.80 FPPM. Those are just monstrous numbers, and in a big matchup at home against Cleveland I will be looking to get at least one if not both of Harden and Embiid in every lineup. Matisse Thybulle and Georges Niang would be solid value plays as well especially if Niang starts for Harris while Tyrese Maxey has a nice price on DK at $6,600 and would be in play there. (I don’t like his $7,800 FD price).
UPDATE: Tobias Harris is AVAILABLE
Wendell Carter Jr. is another big questionable name dealing with a non-covid illness. If Carter sits look for Chuma Okeke to start at PF and be a very strong play especially at just $5,000 on DK. Mo Bamba has been excellent his last two games, so he would be an even more appealing play with no Carter. Running a CourtIQ with Carter off the floor we see Bamba with a +3.7% usage bump scoring a team high 1.21 FPPM. Jalen Suggs sees the next highest usage bump at +3.2% for a team high 29% usage rate.
UPDATE: Wendell Carter Jr. has been ruled OUT. Chuma Okeke will draw the start and is a solid play.
Jarred Vanderbilt looks to be the next most relevant questionable tag and if he sits then Jaden McDaniels would be looking at close to 30 minutes as the top forward available and Taurean Prince could join the starting five and be a very strong value play. Malik Beasley would also be in play for value, as he’d likely see 25+ minutes helping at the SF spot as well as his usually guard backup duties.
UPDATE: Jarred Vanderbilt is AVAILABLE
Cade Cunningham was added to the injury report at 1:30PM EST and is questionable with a right wrist sprain. The CourtIQ with Cunningham off leaves Jerami Grant with a team high 26.6% usage rate while Saddiq Bey and Killian Hayes both see over 2% and 3% usage bumps respectively.
UPDATE: Cade Cunningham is ACTIVE
UPDATE: John Collins was upgraded to questionable and is now AVAILABLE. He will come off the bench.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Looking at Fanduel the first name standing out to me is Cameron Payne at $5,000 as he should see closer to 25 minutes in his second game back after only seeing 20 minutes last game, but he did still put up 25+ FP, so for his price and the 30+ FP upside today he’s the first name I’m locking in. I also really like the $4,700 price of Patrick Beverley who should see around 30 minutes and will have to do more offensively with Edwards out again and potentially Vanderbilt too. Going back to the Suns Mikal Bridges should easily pay off his $5,400 price as he will have to do a lot on both ends of the floor with Paul and Booker out and this game should be closer than their last game where they blew out Portland and Bridges still saw almost 30 minutes. The last name that I’m looking to lock in right away is Aleksej Pokusevski at $5,200. Coming off a big road win in Denver the Thunder will likely stick with Poku in the starting lineup and if he can put up 35+ FP against Denver he should be looking at a 30+ FP floor vs. Minnesota and his price is too cheap for that floor and the upside he’s shown when given big minutes. Other strong p/$ FD names I’m considering include De’Andre Hunter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Corey Kispert, Alec Burks, and potentially Jaden McDaniels / Malik Beasley if Vanderbilt sits.
Speaking of Malik Beasley he is over $1k cheaper over on Draftkings at just $3,200 and is definitely in play there regardless of Vanderbilt’s status as he saw over 27 minutes last game with Edwards out and should be looking at at least 23+ minutes today with a great chance of easily paying off that price. Daniel Gafford is another name I like more on DK than FD as he is also over $1k cheaper at $4,100 and has been a solid play over his last three games with 24+ FP in each. Cameron Payne and Aleksej Pokusevski are similarly priced to FD so they will be in my starting core on DK as well as FD. I’ve already mentioned the huge price difference of Malachi Flynn on DK compared to FD (over $2,000 cheaper) but another huge price discrepancy is with Isaiah Roby who is $6,500 on FD but only $4,600 on DK. Roby is coming off a monster 50+ FP performance against Denver, so his confidence is sky high and if he gets anywhere close to the 34 minutes he saw last game he should be one of the top plays on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn