NBA First Look: Thursday, November 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-18 02:44:01

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The NBA First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, player statistics, and projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming slate.

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Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

NBA Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team		Home Team	Vegas Line	Over/Under	Away Total	Home Total	Tip-off
New York Knicks	at	Washington Wizards	WAS-3.0	207.0	102.0	105.0	7:00 PM
Milwaukee Bucks	at	Miami Heat	MIA-3.5	198.5	97.5	101.0	7:30 PM
Portland Trail Blazers	at	Houston Rockets	HOU-4.0	221.0	108.5	112.5	8:00 PM
Philadelphia 76ers	at	Minnesota Timberwolves	MIN-11.5	211.0	99.8	111.3	8:00 PM
Chicago Bulls	at	Utah Jazz	UTA-3.5	195.5	96.0	99.5	10:30 PM

Implied Implied Totals & Pace of Play

Offense	Opponent	Spread	Imp. Total	Points PG	Points +/-	Team Pace	Opp. Pace	Proj. Pace	Pace +/-
Houston Rockets	Portland	-4.0	112.5	107.8	4.7	99.3	101.0	100.9	1.6
Minnesota Timberwolves	Philadelphia	-11.5	111.3	107.9	3.3	98.5	99.9	99.0	0.5
Portland Trail Blazers	Houston	+ 4.0	108.5	107.0	1.5	101.0	99.3	100.9	-0.1
Washington Wizards	New York	-3.0	105.0	99.9	5.1	98.4	99.1	98.1	-0.3
New York Knicks	Washington	+ 3.0	102.0	101.0	1.0	99.1	98.4	98.1	-1.0
Miami Heat	Milwaukee	-3.5	101.0	94.4	6.6	97.3	98.6	96.5	-0.8
Philadelphia 76ers	Minnesota	+ 11.5	99.8	95.6	4.2	99.9	98.5	99.0	-0.9
Utah Jazz	Chicago	-3.5	99.5	97.5	2.0	93.0	98.4	92.0	-1.0
Milwaukee Bucks	Miami	+ 3.5	97.5	103.9	-6.4	98.6	97.3	96.5	-2.1
Chicago Bulls	Utah	+ 3.5	96.0	106.8	-10.8	98.4	93.0	92.0	-6.4

Defense vs. Position Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Offense	Opponent	Total FPA	vs. PG	vs. SG	vs. SF	vs. PF	vs. C
Houston Rockets	Portland	25	13	9	18	28	30
Minnesota Timberwolves	Philadelphia	28	22	29	30	15	24
Portland Trail Blazers	Houston	15	12	11	25	25	12
Washington Wizards	New York	19	7	30	24	13	12
New York Knicks	Washington	17	1	25	23	18	10
Miami Heat	Milwaukee	20	10	6	22	18	25
Philadelphia 76ers	Minnesota	4	20	4	12	10	29
Utah Jazz	Chicago	14	6	8	21	21	25
Milwaukee Bucks	Miami	7	2	7	9	12	17
Chicago Bulls	Utah	2	3	3	6	4	8

Point Guard

Projected Starter	Imp. Total	FD Salary	DK Salary	Minutes	L3 +/-	FP/Game	L3 +/-	True Usage	L3 +/-	DvP
Patrick Beverley	112.5	$4,600	$4,400							13
Ricky Rubio	111.3	$6,600	$6,300	31.0	0.1	24.8	4.2	18.1%	1.9%	22
Damian Lillard	108.5	$9,600	$9,600	36.1	1.9	41.6	2.1	33.0%	-0.8%	12
John Wall	105.0	$8,900	$8,800	34.1	-4.6	40.2	-2.4	36.6%	9.1%	7
Derrick Rose	102.0	$5,700	$5,400	31.2	2.1	25.6	-4.2	27.8%	-2.2%	1
Josh Richardson	101.0	$4,300	$5,200	27.4	5.7	17.5	7.4	20.7%	1.0%	10
Sergio Rodriguez	99.8	$5,000	$4,800	29.6	-2.8	23.3	0.1	23.0%	-3.1%	20
Dante Exum	99.5	$3,500	$3,000	21.1	6.2	12.3	0.8	16.8%	3.1%	6
Giannis Antetokounmpo	97.5	$9,600	$8,900	33.4	4.0	44.0	3.5	30.0%	-1.3%	2
Rajon Rondo	96.0	$5,500	$5,300	29.3	1.7	24.6	3.6	22.9%	-1.4%	3

Shooting Guard

Projected Starter	Imp. Total	FD Salary	DK Salary	Minutes	L3 +/-	FP/Game	L3 +/-	True Usage	L3 +/-	DvP
James Harden	112.5	$11,700	$12,400	37.3	-1.1	55.4	-7.0	39.2%	-0.1%	9
Zach LaVine	111.3	$6,100	$6,100	34.5	2.0	28.2	-0.7	22.1%	-3.3%	29
C.J. McCollum	108.5	$7,500	$7,600	34.4	1.7	33.8	2.3	27.1%	2.9%	11
Bradley Beal	105.0	$5,300	$5,500	31.4		23.9		24.7%		30
Courtney Lee	102.0	$3,600	$3,800	30.6	0.9	15.9	0.8	14.1%	0.2%	25
Dion Waiters	101.0	$4,500	$4,600	31.8	-2.4	21.2	0.1	24.8%	5.8%	6
Gerald Henderson	99.8	$4,000	$3,400	25.5	0.1	17.0	3.3	18.0%	-1.9%	4
Rodney Hood	99.5	$5,300	$5,500	32.5	1.2	26.9	-3.6	23.3%	0.5%	8
Matthew Dellavedova	97.5	$4,300	$4,300	28.6	-1.5	21.0	-0.7	19.0%	-0.9%	7
Dwyane Wade	96.0	$6,500	$6,600	29.5	1.6	29.2	-0.7	28.1%	2.7%	3

Small Forward

Projected Starter	Imp. Total	FD Salary	DK Salary	Minutes	L3 +/-	FP/Game	L3 +/-	True Usage	L3 +/-	DvP
Trevor Ariza	112.5	$5,300	$5,600	34.1	2.2	25.1	7.4	15.3%	1.5%	18
Andrew Wiggins	111.3	$7,000	$7,300	36.2	3.8	34.0	6.7	30.3%	3.2%	30
Maurice Harkless	108.5	$4,600	$5,100	30.5	1.8	21.1	3.4	14.7%	-1.8%	25
Otto Porter	105.0	$6,000	$6,500	34.1	0.3	30.0	-1.5	17.4%	3.3%	24
Carmelo Anthony	102.0	$7,900	$7,400	32.0	3.8	33.7	4.0	29.5%	-2.3%	23
Justise Winslow	101.0	$5,000	$5,500	35.9	-1.3	25.6	-3.4	21.6%	-2.0%	22
Robert Covington	99.8	$4,600	$4,900	28.0	-6.8	19.3	-5.2	15.8%	5.4%	12
Gordon Hayward	99.5	$7,400	$7,700	35.3	1.3	36.0	-0.6	30.4%	-2.6%	21
Tony Snell	97.5	$3,500	$3,200	28.4	1.5	13.4	2.8	14.4%	-1.3%	9
Jimmy Butler	96.0	$8,500	$8,400	34.1	2.7	39.6	8.7	28.8%	1.4%	6

Power Forward

Projected Starter	Imp. Total	FD Salary	DK Salary	Minutes	L3 +/-	FP/Game	L3 +/-	True Usage	L3 +/-	DvP
Ryan Anderson	112.5	$5,000	$5,200	32.0	1.5	21.7	-5.0	18.0%	-0.3%	28
Gorgui Dieng	111.3	$5,400	$5,700	30.6	0.7	25.3	-6.6	15.0%	-2.6%	15
Meyers Leonard	108.5	$3,500	$3,200	16.2	6.6	10.2	3.2	17.0%	-0.1%	25
Markieff Morris	105.0	$5,900	$6,200	33.0	3.0	27.7	6.3	21.5%	1.9%	13
Kristaps Porzingis	102.0	$6,900	$6,800	31.3	4.1	31.3	7.1	23.0%	3.0%	18
Derrick Williams	101.0	$3,900	$3,100	14.4	3.7	9.8	2.5	18.4%	0.8%	18
Ersan Ilyasova	99.8	$3,900	$4,200	23.1	1.2	18.4	0.9	19.7%	3.2%	10
Boris Diaw	99.5	$3,500	$3,000	22.5	-2.0	4.7	6.0	12.3%	-1.9%	21
Jabari Parker	97.5	$6,400	$6,300	32.2	2.6	30.0	7.5	25.9%	3.5%	12
Taj Gibson	96.0	$5,500	$5,600	27.6	-0.7	25.9	-5.3	19.7%	-1.8%	4

Center

Projected Starter	Imp. Total	FD Salary	DK Salary	Minutes	L3 +/-	FP/Game	L3 +/-	True Usage	L3 +/-	DvP
Clint Capela	112.5	$5,000	$5,100	23.3	2.6	23.3	9.5	18.2%	-2.5%	30
Karl-Anthony Towns	111.3	$8,300	$8,600	35.4	1.0	38.8	1.0	26.8%	4.0%	24
Mason Plumlee	108.5	$5,100	$5,500	25.9	0.7	24.8	3.8	19.5%	-0.9%	12
Marcin Gortat	105.0	$6,400	$6,400	34.4	-1.3	30.1	-1.5	14.3%	-0.5%	12
Joakim Noah	102.0	$4,500	$4,400	23.7	0.7	21.8	3.6	13.6%	1.8%	10
Hassan Whiteside	101.0	$8,900	$8,700	33.0	1.9	42.4	4.0	24.4%	-0.8%	25
Joel Embiid	99.8	$5,600	$6,100	22.2	0.3	29.8	-3.3	37.4%	-6.3%	29
Rudy Gobert	99.5	$6,400	$6,100	29.8	0.0	28.1	1.1	14.6%	-0.5%	25
John Henson	97.5	$4,000	$3,100	14.5	3.9	12.4	4.5	15.6%	1.1%	17
Robin Lopez	96.0	$4,600	$4,700	26.8	8.2	21.6	7.2	16.9%	4.6%	8

Legend

Term	Description
Implied Total	The implied projected points of a team based on the Vegas line and total.
Pace	The number of possessions a team uses per game.
Projected Pace	League Average Pace + (Team 1 Pace – League Average Pace) + (Team 2 Pace – League Average Pace)
Pace +/-	The difference between a team’s pace and the projected pace of that game.
True Usage	The percentage of possessions a player uses while on the floor, adjusted for turnovers.
L3 + / –	The difference between season averages and those of the last three games for minutes, FP/game, and usage.