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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 21st

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-22 03:05:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 207.5 Article Image Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 13 15 19 4 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.67 -0.63 1.86 1.19 0.24 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are in trouble. They dropped both games at home and it seems like the Bulls figured out how to stop them: focus on Isaiah Thomas. After he scored 33 points to open the series, they honed in on IT, bothering him with double-teams the whole game, and he followed up with 20 points on 15 shots. So far, Thomas has averaged 16.5 shots in 39.9 minutes per game. That’s not what you want to see from a guy who took 19.4 shots in 33.8 minutes per game in the regular season. He’s also turned the ball over 5.5 times per game, nearly doubling his average (2.8). He’s been able to get to the line 25 times, which is great, but he’s been surprisingly cold, making just 68.0% of his attempts; he converted 90.9% during the season.

For him to do his thing, he needs the other guys around him to step up. All the other starters have decreased their production significantly outside of Al Horford, who’s dropped 0.04 FD ppm to 0.95. Thomas himself has seen his usage decrease slightly, from 35.7% to 33.8% while his per-minute production has taken a huge hit, falling from 1.19 FD ppm to 0.88. The good news is coach Brad Stevens is ready to make changes. To counter Chicago’s successful defensive strategy, he’s likely sending Amir Johnson to the bench in favor of Tyler Zeller, who started the second half ahead of him in Game 2, or Kelly Olynyk. Although we have limited samples over these two games, Boston’s offensive rating has improved substantially when Johnson is removed in favor of the other two. They’ve also seen more success when running small with Bradley, Smart, and Crowder on with Thomas and Horford, a lineup that posted a 116.4 offensive rating and 100.2 defensive rating in nine minutes. Over the course of the full season, this lineup maintained a 116.3 offensive rating.

There’s also been talk of Jonas Jerebko starting or earning more playing time. Of Boston’s 11 lineups that played at least 50 minutes during the regular season, they posted the highest offensive rating (123.7) when Jerebko and Marcus Smart were on in place of Avery Bradley and Amir Johnson.

Overall, Boston has posted an offensive rating of 102.7 in this series, which would be good for 27th when compared to regular season results. That’s far off the 108.6 rating they carried throughout the year, which was eighth. Simply put, they have to do something, which means we could see Smart pick up more minutes along with Jerebko and Olynyk.

These shakeups will be welcome news for Thomas. If Boston can jumpstart the offense, or at least add more threats that warrant defensive attention, he should be able to find more space, take more shots, and produce more fantasy points. On top of that, he simply does better when Johnson is on the bench. Across 1,347.2 minutes when Johnson was off the floor, Thomas’ usage climbed 1.6% to 37.3% and his per-36 pace jumped 2.62 FD points to 45.35. Thomas is going to bounce back and he’s an elite option either way, but if we get news confirming Johnson is sitting, his outlook would be even better.

Despite the rebounding issues Boston has had in this series, Horford has seen his production in the area improve. He’s pulled down nine boards per game, 2.2 above his regular season rate. He’s been able to contribute 6.5 assists as well, 1.5 above normal. It helps that he’s averaging an extra 3.7 minutes per game (36.0 total). He only scored seven points on eight shots in Game 2 and he would also benefit from a rejuvenated offense. He played 31 minutes in Game 2, but he should see his minutes trend back up.

A few value guys come into play with the expected changes as Olynyk, Jerebko, and Zeller could all see some extra time. It’s definitely a story to follow today. Jerebko and Zeller are both $1,500 on FanDuel and $2,000 on DraftKings. In four starts this season, Zeller averaged 20.9 FD points while Jerebko averaged 14.65. Both would present possible options if they get the nod, although their minutes may not be secure. Jerebko has only played four minutes the entire series and Zeller played nine in the Game 2 despite starting in the second half. On a per-minute basis, Zeller has produced 0.80 FD ppm without Johnson on the court, and Jerebko returned 0.65 in the same scenario. Olynyk has earned 23.3 mpg this postseason and he’s likely to see the most playing time, even if he doesn’t join the starting five. He played well without Johnson this year, earning 0.95 FD ppm, but over 43.2 minutes without him in the postseason, Olynyk has delivered 1.19 FD ppm. His price is a bit high on FanDuel, but he’s definitely in play tonight. He’s available for $500 less on DraftKings.

In Game 1, Crowder and Smart were each at 30 minutes while Bradley played 35. In Game 2 Bradley shot up to 40 minutes while Crowder played 35 and Smart 27. Based on the expected lineup changes and their shortcomings in this series, it would make sense for Smart to see his minutes increase towards the 30-minute mark. In terms of per-minute production, he’s done much better than the other two, returning 0.92 FD ppm to Bradley’s 0.58 and Crowder’s 0.67. Bradley has been cold this series, shooting 35.7%, partly because the majority of his shots have been threes. He has struggled to rebound, collecting only five total in two games (he averages 6.1 rpg). He should step up in this spot and continue to log the most minutes of the three. He’s $500 less than both of them on FanDuel, which makes him seem like the better option there. On DraftKings, Smart is $300 cheaper and Crowder offers a savings of $400. Smart seems like the better play of the two with his recent performance, but he’s better for tournaments as it’s also under the assumption that he’ll see an uptick in playing time.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,100 $8,500 $15,600 1.19 33.8 -2.9 40.4 -2.3 34.9% 2.2% 22 -0.67
Avery Bradley $6,300 $5,500 $10,800 0.84 33.4 -0.1 28.1 -5.9 21.5% -3.5% 13 -0.63
Jae Crowder $6,800 $5,100 $10,100 0.79 32.4 0.1 25.7 3.5 16.9% 0.2% 15 1.86
Amir Johnson $2,900 $3,100 $6,000 0.82 20.1 -2.4 16.5 0.5 14.3% 1.3% 19 1.19
Al Horford $7,400 $6,700 $12,600 1.00 32.3 -3.7 32.2 -4.9 21.6% 0.6% 4 0.24
Marcus Smart $6,800 $5,200 $10,200 0.80 30.4 -0.4 24.2 3.8 20.7% -3.2% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko (GPP, if starting), Tyler Zeller (GPP, if starting)

Chicago Bulls

The big news of the day is Rajon Rondo’s thumb injury. He fractured it in the third quarter of Game 2 and he’s out indefinitely. It’s a shame because he had been off to a fantastic start this postseason. The Bulls as a team played some great basketball in Boston, they beat the Celtics in all four factors and won both games. Their most notable achievement has been on the offensive glass. They’ve had an exceptional 37.8% offensive rebounding rate primarily due to Robin Lopez, who has 12 offensive boards and 18 total. He’s fourth on the team in minutes (32.9) and he’s been effective in that time. He’s on fire from mid-range, connecting on 7-of-8 attempts in this series, and he’s been successful when working inside, going 6-for-10 from within five feet. This pace appears to be unsustainable, but Boston has had serious trouble trying to slow him down so far.

Jimmy Butler has been great as well, and he’s getting 41.8 minutes per game. Although Rondo and Wade had cut into Butler’s production during the regular season, he’s been able to increase his usage by 2.8% to 31.2% and his per-minute production by 0.02 FD ppm to 1.16 over the last two games. On top of that, Butler has started playing better when Wade was on the court. Across the 54.2 minutes the duo played together, Butler’s usage is up even further to 34.1%, and his FD ppm rate is up another 0.14 to 1.30. Wade’s per-minute production is lower than his average return in the regular season, but, in these two games, it’s 0.07 FD ppm higher (1.02) when Jimmy has been on the court than in the minutes Wade has played without him. However, on the whole Wade’s usage is down quite a bit with Butler taking over – it’s dropped to 24.3% from 31.6%. During the season, he performed better when Rondo was off the court, including a rise in usage to 33.5%. While we can’t expect similar results with the way Butler is playing, Wade should be able to deliver more fantasy points than has so far.

Jerian Grant will be replacing Rondo in the starting lineup and he’s only $1,500 on FanDuel, so he’s basically a free square. Grant averaged 33.8 FD points during his three starts in place of Rondo in April and he didn’t play more than 31 minutes in any of them. He should reach the mid-30s tonight. Still, we shouldn’t expect the same level of production as before; Wade was only available in two of those games (and limited in both of them), and, as mentioned, Butler has brought a different dynamic to the offense in the playoffs. But his salary is so low he’s almost free and it allows cap space for the higher end players, who are all priced up on tonight’s slate.

The other two guys worth a look are Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. After having the game of his life in the opener, Portis played just nine minutes in the follow-up. Mirotic ended up playing 28 minutes and turned them into 27.4 FD points. It’s hard to say what Hoiberg will do this game, but Mirotic has a much better chance of playing significant minutes. If Portis gets the time, he should be efficient. Over the past eight games, he’s returned 1.10 FD ppm and he’s earned more FD points than minutes in six of them. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee there. Neither guy should be considered for cash, but they’re in play for tournaments, with Portis being an ultra-risky option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $8,000 $7,200 $13,700 0.93 26.7 -4.3 24.8 0.5 22.7% 1.1% 18 -4.21
Dwyane Wade $7,100 $6,400 $12,600 1.05 29.9 -6.9 31.3 -12.3 30.6% 1.2% 11 -1.13
Jimmy Butler $11,200 $9,900 $18,200 1.14 37.0 -0.9 42.1 -0.5 28.7% 1.0% 13 1.37
Nikola Mirotic $6,500 $5,100 $10,100 0.87 24.0 3.5 21.0 8.2 19.3% 2.5% 24 3.79
Robin Lopez $6,100 $5,300 $10,500 0.77 28.0 0.8 21.7 2.8 17.3% 3.0% 21 1.59
Bobby Portis $4,400 $4,400 $8,700 0.86 15.6 4.1 13.5 7.7 19.0% -0.1% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Jerian Grant (based on pts/$), Robin Lopez

Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 224.0 Article Image Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 110.8 Team Total 113.3
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 19 16 10 11 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.59 1.64 2.47 2.10 1.42 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

Once again, this game has the highest total of the night, it’s set at 224.0, 16.5 points above the Celtics-Bulls game. With this game in Oklahoma City, the Rockets are 2.5-point underdogs. Through the first two games, things have gone as expected for James Harden. His usage his through the roof at 43.8 , 7.3 above his normal rate, he’s been getting to the line 15.5 times per game (OKC was 22nd in opponent free throw rate), which has helped him score 36.0 points per game, but his rebounding and assist numbers are down. The Thunder were the best rebounding team in the league this year and they were seventh in opponent assists allowed. So far in this series, they’ve limited the Rockets to 20.5 assists on average, which would’ve been the fourth-lowest rate this season. Harden is averaging 8.5 assists, 2.7 below his regular season averaged, and 5.5 rebounds, 2.6 fewer than normal. These trends will likely hold over the course of the series, which makes Harden’s current $13,600 salary on FanDuel feel like too much. On DraftKings, he’s $2,200 cheaper and that seems like a great deal.

The only other Rockets averaging more than 30 minutes are Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson, both of whom are scoring a measly 4.0 points per game. With Harden’s usage on the rise, Ariza’s has nearly be cut in half to 7.7% and he’s only taken nine shots total over two games. Anderson’s usage has decreased substantially as well, it’s fallen 7.6% to 11.3%. He’s gotten off more attempts than Ariza, but he’s been ice cold, going 0-for-11 from three and 2-for-14 overall. They both set reasonable per-36 paces of 25 FD points this season, but they haven’t been able to make an impact against the Thunder. Instead, we’ve seen Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams increase their usage rates 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively. Those two and Eric Gordon have all take between 22 and 25 shots total. Beverly has been particularly hot, shooting 60.0% from deep and 63.6% overall. He’s also pulled down 16 rebounds. He’s just awesome to watch play, especially in the playoffs. Just a scrappy, lunch pail kinda guy. His price has gone up to around $6k, which is a little expensive, but he can still beat it – he was one rebound shy of a triple-double in Game 1 – and there aren’t too many options at the position.

Lou Williams and Eric Gordon are cheaper alternatives. Williams only played 21 minutes in the second game, but managed to score 21 points in that time. He’s solely a GPP play as he’s not getting a ton of minutes and he has to get hot. Gordon logged 30 minutes and scored 22 points, but he’s not much more reliable. With both guys there is limited upside and they don’t seem to be worth the risk unless they start earning more playing time.

Unlike those two, Capela is a trustworthy target even with his limited workload. He’s in a timeshare with Nene, and only received 23 minutes last game, but he turned them into 28.5 FD points. In Game 1, he produced 31.4 FD points in 25 minutes. He’s been doing this for weeks. He’s over $6k on FanDuel though, so he’s best used in cash games. Nene remains a potential GPP pick on DK, but his $5k price tag on FD is too high.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $6,100 $5,900 $11,600 0.82 30.7 0.2 25.2 3.5 16.3% -1.2% 4 -0.59
James Harden $13,600 $11,400 $20,500 1.48 36.4 -2.1 53.9 1.1 38.6% 0.1% 19 1.64
Trevor Ariza $6,000 $5,000 $9,900 0.72 34.7 2.1 25.1 -1.0 14.4% 1.6% 16 2.47
Ryan Anderson $5,100 $4,500 $8,800 0.71 29.4 -7.4 20.9 0.2 17.2% 3.2% 10 2.10
Clint Capela $6,300 $5,400 $10,600 1.08 23.9 1.9 25.9 6.2 19.1% 1.1% 11 1.42
Eric Gordon $5,300 $4,600 $9,100 0.77 31.0 -1.1 23.8 -4.0 22.0% -0.2% 19 N/A
Lou Williams $4,900 $4,800 $9,500 1.03 24.6 2.4 25.4 -5.6 28.9% -4.2% 19 N/A
Nene Hilario $5,000 $4,100 $8,100 0.97 17.9 0.1 17.3 1.7 19.3% 1.8% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (DK cash)

Secondary Plays – Clint Capela (FD cash, GPP), Lou Williams (GPP), Eric Gordon (GPP), Nene Hilario (DK GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook had a 50-point triple-double and the Thunder still lost Game 2. There’s not much more the man can do. His usage rate in this series has been 57.3% and he’ll continue to operate in this manner. He’s very expensive on FanDuel at $14.6k, so there is some merit to fading him in GPPs, but he’s going to keep rolling on this fantasy-friendly Houston defense. Plus, he’s at home and he has to feel even more motivation to win after the way Game 2 went down.

Oladipo crossed the 40-minute mark with him on Wednesday, the only other player to do so. As expected, his usage is down 2.9% to 19.8%, but his per-minute production has stayed fairly level at 0.73 FD ppm, a decrease of 0.02. His ceiling is capped by Westbrook’s usage, but he has a fair price on FanDuel and a favorable one on DraftKings. His poor fantasy performance in this series has been due to his horrendous shooting – he’s 7.7% from three and 19.2% overall on 26 total shots. We can expect him to do better and he still managed 26.1 FD points in Game 2 despite scoring 11 points, reiterating the point that the Rockets are a good matchup for peripheral stats.

Their most improved player has been Andre Roberson, who’s increased his usage by 3.8% to 14.7% and his per-minute production by over 50% to 0.92 FD ppm. He’s putting in the most time on the court outside of Westbrook and Oladipo, earning 37 in Game 2. He’s been really effective on the glass, hauling in eight boards each game and he’s contributed five blocks and four steals total. His price is right around $5k now, which is a little high, but relative to other small forwards on FanDuel it’s not a terrible deal. On DraftKings, it may be better to spend up for Butler or Hayward, both of whom are much cheaper on DK. Another small forward to keep an eye on is Jerami Grant. He received 27 minutes in Game 1, which seemed a little suspect due to the blowout, but he came back for 26 minutes of action in the follow-up. Although he’s not a super exciting prospect, he’s averaged 9.5 points and grabbed exactly five rebounds in each game so far. It appears that he’s cutting into the workloads of Steven Adams, Taj Gibson, and Ernes Kanter. All three players are averaging fewer minutes than they did in the regular season. Adams appeared to be a great target heading into this series, but he’s logged 27.7 minutes and he hasn’t been able to get things going yet. In Game 2, he only managed three field goal attempts and seven rebounds. He should be able to do better, and he remains a potential GPP pick, but the lack of playing time is definitely concerning. Kanter has nearly been removed from the rotation due to poor defense, he only got on the floor for 8 minutes in Game 2. It’s an incredibly frustrating situation because Kanter has delivered an awesome per-minute production rate, especially against the Rockets, but he’s not getting the time on the court.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $14,600 $13,900 $24,800 1.69 34.6 -2.3 58.6 -3.1 45.9% 0.3% 25 1.89
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $5,300 $10,500 0.79 33.2 -1.6 26.2 -3.7 21.7% 1.2% 26 -1.81
Andre Roberson $5,200 $4,900 $9,800 0.60 30.1 -14.9 18.0 -13.5 10.2% -4.6% 23 1.54
Taj Gibson $4,000 $3,700 $7,300 0.82 25.5 -5.0 20.9 -3.0 18.4% 5.6% 27 -0.16
Steven Adams $5,100 $4,700 $9,200 0.82 29.9 -2.8 24.6 -1.7 16.1% 0.2% 26 1.25
Enes Kanter $4,800 $3,900 $7,700 1.12 21.3 -2.1 23.8 -4.1 26.5% 4.7% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Steven Adams (GPP), Jerami Grant (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz – 10:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Utah Jazz
Article Image Vegas Total 197.0 Article Image Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 97.8
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Derrick Favors
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3 Adj. DvP 7 5 22 20 9
DRPM 0.60 0.04 0.13 -1.03 2.41 DRPM 2.71 -1.80 2.19 0.41 3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers head to Utah after dropping one game at home. This series is being played at a glacial pace of 92.76, which is slower than any team played during the season. As a result, the Clippers are averaging 186.9 FD points per game. For comparison, the Rockets are producing 215.05 FD points per game. This is part of the reason Blake Griffin’s usage is up 2.9% to a team-high 31.7%, but his per-minute production has declined 0.28 FD ppm to 0.86. While his scoring has remained on par, he’s collecting fewer rebounds and assists – he’s averaged 6.0 rpg as opposed to 8.1 and 2.5 apg, which is essentially half his normal 4.9 rate. There are two other reasons Griffin has seen those numbers drop: Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. Paul’s usage rate has climbed 2.8% to 28.6% and his assist rate has jumped 7.9% to 54.7% while Griffin’s has dropped from 24.5% to 10.7%. Griffin may have the higher usage, but the offense is running through Paul. In fact, Paul has assisted on 65% of Blake’s made field goals. Then there’s Jordan, who’s been a beast on the glass, who’s pulled down exactly 15 rebounds in each of the first two games. Without Gobert available, Jordan has increased his rebounding rate to an insane 27.7% from an already impressive 24.2%. What stands out the most is his defensive rebounding rate of 45.5% when compared to Blake’s 16.2%. Griffin should track back towards his averages at least a little bit, but the results of the first two games may just be indicative of how the rest of the series will play out.

Paul and Jordan are both averaging about 35 minutes per game and they’ve both used their extra time to up their points per game. Paul is scoring 23.0 over two contests, 4.9 above average, while Jordan is slightly up to 14.0 points, 1.3 above his normal production. Utah doesn’t seem to have an answer for him down low. After only attempting seven shots in the first game, he followed up with 11 in the second and made nine of them, all within five feet of the basket. He should continue to dominate in this fashion until Gobert returns, if he does at all. He’s the top center available on today’s slate in terms of raw points, but he’s pretty expensive on FanDuel. On DK, he’s simply too cheap. As for Paul, he continues the theme of the day of being a little more expensive than we’d like on FD, but he’s a good deal on DK. He’s going to keep piling up assists and he’ll keep shooting with the extra minutes he’s receiving.

Beyond these three there isn’t much. J.J. Redick continues to struggle against the Jazz; he’s only attempted 13 shots total over two games after averaging 11.4 per game during the regular season. He’s just getting smothered by the Jazz defense. Jamal Crawford is fourth on the team in points with 9.0 per game, he’s fired off 12 shots in each meeting so far. He’s looking like the better value guard, but bear in mind he has the lowest shooting percentage in the playoffs of any active player with at least 500 attempts and he’s shooting 29.2% so far. Marreese Speights has only been getting 13.7 minutes. He can produce fantasy points quickly, keeping him in play as a GPP flier, but the minutes do appear to be too low.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,900 $9,100 $16,800 1.26 31.5 1.4 39.7 4.2 28.9% 0.2% 1 0.60
J.J. Redick $3,800 $4,200 $8,400 0.72 28.2 3.7 20.2 4.9 21.0% -1.9% 2 0.04
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,900 $3,300 $6,400 0.52 22.3 7.8 11.6 4.9 11.0% 0.9% 1 0.13
Blake Griffin $9,200 $7,900 $14,700 1.15 34.0 1.0 39.0 0.3 28.6% -3.4% 1 -1.03
DeAndre Jordan $8,600 $7,400 $14,000 1.08 31.7 2.1 34.3 4.6 14.6% 0.1% 3 2.41
Jamal Crawford $3,500 $3,600 $7,000 0.70 26.3 -2.5 18.3 -4.1 22.8% -3.4% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin

Secondary Plays – Jamal Crawford (GPP), Marreese Speights (GPP)

Utah Jazz

One of the most notable changes in the dynamic of Utah’s offense since Gobert was injured has been Joe Johnson’s sharp increase in usage; it’s up 7.8% to 27.4%, which is second on the team. Although he didn’t have as big a fantasy performance in the second game, his usage was 32.2% in that one over 19 minutes. He only scored 13 points despite taking 15 shots and he was 0-for-4 from three, so he could’ve had a bigger stat line. His price has crossed the $5k mark, so he’s a mid-range option instead of a value play. Still, he’s an interesting GPP target with that type of usage; it helps that he’s playing around 30 minutes a night as well.

Gordon Hayward has led the team in usage over the first two games, but it remained even with his normal rate. He’s had a poor shooting performance so far, making just 36.4% of his shots. That should improve. His assists are down, he’s averaged 2.5 per game after contributing 3.5 during the season. The Jazz as a team don’t collect a whole bunch of assists, they averaged 20.1 per game this year, the third-fewest in the league, and they’ve averaged 18.0 so far in this series. He needs to score a lot of points and rebound. He’s picked up his rebounding pace without Gobert around, he’s up to 8.0 per game whereas he grabbed 5.4 during the season. Despite the extra minutes he’s playing (39.4 vs. 34.5), he’s only averaging an extra 0.7 FGAs (16.5 vs 15.8). He needs to take over and launch more to have a big fantasy impact, but with Joe Johnson taking 14.5 per game, it’s hard for Hayward to do that. Another factor has been Luc Mbah a Moute’s defense, he’s been bothering Hayward all series. Clippers coach Doc Rivers is making a point to match Mbah a Moute’s minutes with Hayward’s and that’s been a big factor in Hayward’s poor shooting percentage and lack of production in general.

Three other guys are averaging over 30 minutes per game: Derrick Favors (32.8), George Hill (37.0), and Joe Ingles (32.9). All three have seen their production rates drop this postseason. Favors is starting in place of Gobert, but he’s battling fatigue. He’s been dealing with injuries all season and was only expected to play 20-25 minutes a night in this series. He’s a good player, but he’s looked overmatched by DeAndre Jordan in the first two games. Still, he’s been consistent, returning 25.2 and 23.4 FD points per game and there is a severe lack of power forwards on this slate, particularly on FanDuel. Hill’s usage has been down 2.9% to 22.0% in this series and his per-minute production has fallen 0.24 FD ppm to 0.64. He’s the only viable point guard option on FanDuel under $6k other than Jerian Grant, and he’s a better player than he’s shown over the first two games, which puts him in play for tournaments. However, he experienced a drop in production when Gobert was off the floor during the regular season as well. It wasn’t as severe, but he only managed 0.78 FD ppm on a similar usage rate. Ingles is starting, but he’s not all that appealing. During the regular season, he had a 14.7% usage rate and delivered 0.64 FD ppm when Gobert was off and he’s pretty much matched that in this series. Plus, he has very little upside to speak of. Joe Johnson is in a similar price range and he seems like a better option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $5,600 $5,700 $11,300 0.89 31.5 -11.3 28.0 0.8 24.7% 0.1% 7 2.71
Joe Ingles $4,900 $4,700 $9,200 0.68 24.1 7.5 16.3 2.3 15.4% 0.1% 5 -1.80
Gordon Hayward $8,300 $7,300 $13,700 1.00 34.5 -2.8 34.3 1.5 27.6% 1.7% 22 2.19
Boris Diaw $4,500 $3,600 $7,100 0.57 17.6 0.5 10.1 3.8 17.6% -3.7% 20 0.41
Derrick Favors $6,100 $5,600 $11,100 0.87 23.7 -6.6 20.7 -3.3 19.8% 5.8% 9 3.57
Joe Johnson $5,400 $5,000 $9,800 0.68 23.6 1.7 16.1 5.8 18.7% 3.4% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors (FD)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (DK), George Hill, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).