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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 28th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-29 05:22:54

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 210.0 Article Image Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -2.53 -1.35 2.66 3.29 2.92 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

Although this series is averaging a pace of 102.0, it’s started to slow down a bit over the past two meetings – Game 5 had a pace of 97.06. While it’s still faster than the other matchups on tonight’s slate and has the highest game total, if the trend holds, it’ll be much closer to the Celtics-Bulls (94.3 pace last game) and Jazz-Clippers (93.9 last game). We’ve also seen John Wall’s scoring pace drop a bit. After averaging 31.0 points across the opening three games, he’s averaged 21.0 in Games 4 and 5. At the same time, Bradley Beal went from a 21.7 average in the first three to 29.5. Otto Porter and Bojan Bogdanovic are also getting in on the fun, reaching double-digits in consecutive games, while Markieff Morris has been in the single-digits for four outings in a row as he’s been severely limited by foul trouble.

Morris has now accumulated five fouls in four straight and it has to be a factor when building lineups as he’s been limited to 24 or fewer minutes in all of those games. When he’s been on the floor, he’s been able to maintain his normal production for the most part; he’s dropped 0.03 FD ppm to 0.80. but his usage is up 1.1% to 23.0%. We saw how they want to use him in the first game when he received 38 minutes, so if he can manage to stop fouling Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap, he could become a nice asset. On FanDuel there aren’t many alternatives, but on DraftKings, he could be a little sneaky if willing to take the risk. Normally, Jason Smith is the first to enter the game when Morris leaves. He’s questionable today and if he’s ultimately ruled out, it could provide extra time for Morris and Marcin Gortat. At the same time, if Morris is in foul trouble again, Bojan Bogdanovic would be the primary beneficiary off the bench. It appears he’s separated himself from Kelly Oubre as he earned nine more minutes than Oubre in Game 4 and earned 11 more in the follow-up. He’s now played 22+ minutes in three of the past four and earned 24 last time out. When Morris is sidelined, Washington doesn’t mind going small, they’ve used Bojan over Smith at times, leaving Porter in the same lineup – the duo has played 21.4 minutes together over the past three games. He’s made the most of his opportunities, averaging 12.7 points and 5.3 rebounds over the past three contests. At $4k or less on FD and DK, he’s in play as a value option. If Smith is ruled out, he could pick up time whether Morris is in foul trouble or not, although it would be better for Morris to have some issues there. If Smith is in, his value may hinge on Morris’ fouls.

Even though they do play together at times, Bogdanovic’s play still allowed him to cut into Porter’s workload a bit. The latter had reached 39 minutes in Game 4 while the former earned 18, and in the follow-up, the gap closed to 31 and 24. Porter still had a nice game, scoring 17 while grabbing five rebounds, contributing an assist, blocking a shot, and adding two steals. His price came up on DraftKings, but he remains under $5k on FanDuel. After a slow start to the series, he picked it up a bit. His usage has still been lower than normal at 13.8%, but he’s returned 0.78 FD ppm, only 0.05 off his normal mark, after dropping to 0.64 over the first three games. He seems to have a secure workload of 30-32 minutes, but he could potentially push towards 36 if Smith is out. He can definitely put up big games if he has the time. He exceeded 30 FD points in 27 of the 44 games he earned at least 33 minutes this season and he was pretty consistent, exceeding 25 FD points in 35.

Of course, we have to temper expectations of Washington’s secondary players as their two stars, John Wall and Bradley Beal have increased their usage rates this postseason. Beal is up to 31.6% and Wall has led the team with a 33.1% rate. Each player has averaged the same per-minute production for the most part; Beal is exactly even at 0.94 while Wall is up 0.02 FD ppm to 1.27. As mentioned, Beals scoring has been up and Wall’s down. That’s alright for Wall because he still gets a piece of the action as he’s assisted on 32.7% of Beal’s total baskets. He’s even more involved with the rest of his teammates as he’s boasted an impressive 51.4% assist rate in this series. Atlanta as a team gave up a bunch of assists to opponents in the second half of the year – 25.0 per game, seventh-most in the league – so Washington’s current offensive style paired with Atlanta’s defensive soft spots should ensure Wall continues to rack up assists. However, his scoring is a bit of a concern. His field goal percentage has dropped the past two games, but with Dwight Howard limited in playing time, he’s continued to find success driving to the basket. He’s 9-of-13 from within five feet of the past two outings, and he’s driving to the basket 11.5 times per game in this series. The problem is he’s been oddly cold from 8-16 feet away, making just 1-of-12 shots from that area during the same time span. Wall wasn’t very efficient from there this season, making 37.6% of his attempts, and Atlanta’s defense ranked sixth in FG% from the area (37.2%). Still, Wall should do better, and it’s a good sign that he’s taken 19.5 FGAs over the past two. Beal, on the other hand, is struggling from distance; he’s converted just 20.7% of his attempts from three over the past three games. He’s still managed to average 29.5 points over the last two though, and he’s launched 22.5 times per game in that stretch. There’s little doubt that he’ll keep firing from all over and he’s going to get hot from deep at some point. He’s also been solid on the glass, picking up exactly five rebounds in three consecutive games, and on defense – he’s had two or more steals in four-of-five games and added three blocks in Game 5, although that was an outlier as he only blocked a shot in 20 games this season, and had just one game with more than one.

With Atlanta rolling with small lineups, Marcin Gortat has had nine or more rebounds in all five games and he’s averaged 2.8 blocks. He hasn’t be asked to score too much recently though, after taking 10.5 FGAs and scoring 14 points in each of the first two games, he’s taken 4.7 FGAs over the last three and he’s been icy cold, making just one basket in each. If Smith is out, he figures to pick up extra playing time, he earned 39 minutes in Game 5 with Smith’s injury and Morris’ foul trouble. Even if he isn’t taking a ton of shots, he should score more points moving forward as he was a 57.9% shooter during the season. If he puts together a complete game, he could be a really solid points-per-dollar option tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,400 $10,600 1.24 36.4 1.2 45.3 2.6 34.8% 0.0% 24 -2.53
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,800 0.94 34.9 4.4 32.9 3.7 26.4% 2.1% 25 -1.35
Otto Porter $4,900 $5,500 0.82 32.6 -2.8 26.7 -5.8 14.8% -2.1% 28 2.66
Markieff Morris $5,300 $5,100 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -4.9 19.8% 0.9% 8 3.29
Marcin Gortat $5,600 $5,800 0.85 31.2 2.7 26.4 2.0 14.7% -4.0% 7 2.92
Kelly Oubre $3,000 $2,900 0.61 20.3 -4.8 12.4 -0.5 13.9% 3.2% 28 N/A
Jason Smith $3,300 $3,000 0.82 14.4 3.2 11.9 -2.3 16.0% -1.5% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (DK), Otto Porter, Bojan Bogdanovic, Marcin Gortat

Atlanta Hawks

Dennis Schroder is having one heck of a series. Despite averaging 17.9 points per game in the regular season, he’s dropped at least 23 in all four games he didn’t pick up three fouls in the first quarter. The kid has really found a groove and one can see the confidence he has in himself when he keeps launching some difficult threes (and making the, he’s hit 43.8% so far). Across those four contests, he’s taken 19.3 FGAs, a boost of 4.1 from his season average. He’s also bumped his assist rate to 40.4%, a 4.9% increase. People may have been sleeping on him or simply laid off due to his rising price tag, but he’s been right up there among the elite point guards this postseason. Schroder has surpassed 41 FD points in three of the four games he wasn’t dealing with foul trouble, and in the fourth, he posted 37.8. He and Paul Millsap are running this offense and it looks like he’ll continue to shoot plenty of times. Plus, he has a secure workload of 36-38 minutes. He plays more than Millsap, who’s been playing between 33-36 minutes a night. Both players could push it further in an elimination game tonight, which makes them both appealing fantasy targets. Millsap has increased his usage by 4.5% and he now leads the team at 29.9% this postseason. He’s also turned in 1.14 FD ppm, 0.11 above his normal production. With Howard limited to 30 or fewer minutes this series, he’s grabbed nine or more rebounds in four consecutive games while averaging 4.5 assists during that stretch. He’s clearly the top power forward on FanDuel while Gordon Hayward provides some competition on DraftKings.

Outside of those two, we have some value options and a center with a capped ceiling. Howard hasn’t played more than 30 minutes a night and his limitations are expected to continue, especially if Jason Smith is ruled out. Although, he’s still a beast on the glass with a 22.7% rebounding rate, Howard has seen his usage tumble 5.6% to 14.6% and his per-minute production is down 0.13 FD ppm to 0.97. That’s still a solid rate, but his upside is limited when he’s getting a small workload like this. Also, outside of Game 4 when he took 14 shots, he’s averaged 4.5 FGAs per game, which isn’t going to cut it.

Atlanta’s best value options are Tim Hardaway, Taurean Prince, and Kent Bazemore. Hardaway averaged the most minutes (32.1), but Prince has been more productive. Hardaway averages 12.8 points per game but does little else, while Prince has scored 12.6 and pulled down 5.4 rebounds per game to Hardaway’s 2.6. However, Hardaway takes an extra 3.4 FGAs per game, he’s simply been cold, shooting 34.4% from the field. Last game, Hardaway put in 38 minutes and took 18 shots, ten of them from behind the arc. He only scored 15 points, but If he puts in a similar effort tonight and manages to connect, he could put up enough fantasy points to pay off his reduced price tag. Prince may be a better option though as he delivers peripherals. He’s also been consistent, scoring at least ten in every game and hitting 19+ FD points in four of five games, including a 24.2-point performance last time out. Bazemore had a really big game when Schroder was in foul trouble, but he’s going to struggle to repeat that performance as he’s still earning minutes in the low 20s off the bench. He’s in between the other two in terms of peripherals, but he’s still pretty scoring dependent, so he’ll have to get hot quickly to beat his salary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $8,400 $8,000 0.95 31.5 2.8 30.0 8.4 30.3% 0.3% 9 -0.83
Tim Hardaway $4,900 $4,500 0.80 27.3 4.8 21.8 -4.9 22.4% -0.5% 16 -0.94
Taurean Prince $4,400 $4,700 0.70 16.6 14.2 11.7 9.0 17.0% -2.2% 17 0.03
Paul Millsap $8,600 $8,400 1.03 34.0 0.6 35.0 5.0 24.9% 4.0% 22 1.54
Dwight Howard $6,800 $6,300 1.10 29.7 -2.9 32.7 -6.8 18.6% -4.0% 20 1.33
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,600 0.76 26.9 -2.8 20.5 0.0 20.6% 2.1% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kent Bazemore, Dwight Howard

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 204.0 Article Image Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Gerald Green Jae Crowder Al Horford Proj. Starter Isaiah Canaan Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 13 15 19 4 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -1.11 -0.63 1.86 1.19 0.24 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 -1.56 1.37 1.59

Boston Celtics

The Celtics head to Chicago tonight to try to close out their opening series with the Bulls. Their leader, Isaiah Thomas has been an inconsistent scorer this postseason and he’s made just 16.1% of his three-pointers over the past four games. Considering he made 37.9% from distance this season, we can be confident he’ll turn that around soon. Chicago’s defense did well defending three-balls this season, finishing sixth in opponent 3P% (34.5%), but he’s still going to do better than he has been. Fortunately, he keeps firing away as he’s averaged 9.5 attempts beyond the arc across Games 4 and 5. He’s also remained aggressive; he’s averaging 13.0 drives per game, the third-highest rate in the playoffs, and he’s earned 24 FTAs as a result over the past two outings. His peripherals aren’t the best, as he’s averaging 4.2 rebounds and 5.6 assists while his assist rate has dropped 5.6% to 26.9%. He’s going to need to score a lot of points to beat his price tag, but once he gets the rhythm from three, he could put up a monster line.

Part of the reason Thomas’ assist rate is down is because Al Horford has seen his usage jump up to a team-high 30.0%, a 5.6% improvement for him. Horford has also increased his rebounding percentage by 2.6% to 14.5% as he’s been able to take advantage of Robin Lopez playing limited minutes. Horford has provided 9.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game to go along with his 16.0 points. He’s been contributing in every across the board, which has raised his fantasy production by 0.11 DK ppm to 1.16. However, his minutes have become a concern. He only played 34 last time out as Boston went small. At the same time Kelly Olynyk earned a bigger workload with his solid performance, he ended with 20 minutes. Olynyk will be an interesting option tonight as he’s produced 1.11 DK ppm this series on a usage rate of 21.5%, which is second on the team behind Thomas. He scored 14 points and pulled down five boards in Game 5, and he could potentially earn some more playing time in Game 6. It still may not be enough though as his price has come up across the industry, although he has a more favorable salary on DK. Fellow big man Jonas Jerebko remains near the minimum and he’s now earned ten minutes in three consecutive games. Although it’s nothing crazy, he’s returned 0.84 DK ppm. It seems like a longshot for him to get more time on the court, but he’s in play as a high risk/high reward option – more so on FanDuel – as he frees up plenty of cap space. It may not be worth the risk with a third game on the slate though. Plus, Terry Rozier offers more upside at a slightly higher price. He earned 18 minutes last game and he returned 14.25 DK points. On average, he’s produced 0.70 DK ppm, but it looks like his workload can fluctuate depending on how Gerald Green plays.

Green will continue to start for the Celtics, but he only took three shots in 12 minutes in Game 5. It seems he can get yanked quickly, and coach Brad Stevens clearly prefers Marcus Smart and even Rozier at times. With Green being so cheap, he remains in play but he’s going to have to start out hot right out of the gate to stay on the court and he’ll top out in the low 20s either way. Smart comes in for Green and he picks up plenty of action. He played 33 and 34 minutes in Games 4 and 5 and it seems like he’ll continue to do so. He can provide peripherals in addition to scoring and his 0.89 DK ppm his 0.18 above what Jae Crowder averages. It appears that Smart has a bigger upside than Crowder as well, although he’s not as appealing as Avery Bradley, who’s hit 40 minutes twice in this series. Bradley has been a little inconsistent, but he scored 24 points in Game 5 while grabbing six rebounds. He’s now had two solid games in this series, and he’s capable of contributing in all three of the major stats plus he’s had at least one steal in each contest. Lately, it’s been hard to predict which Bradley will show up, but he has a fair price across the industry that he can certainly beat if he is scoring. At least we can be pretty confident his minutes will be high in an elimination game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 $8,800 1.19 33.8 2.8 40.4 -4.0 34.9% -2.3% 22 -1.11
Avery Bradley $6,400 $5,900 0.84 33.4 3.7 28.1 -2.9 21.5% -3.1% 13 -0.63
Gerald Green $1,700 $3,500 0.78 11.4 3.9 8.9 1.3 21.6% -2.3% 15 1.86
Jae Crowder $6,200 $5,600 0.79 32.4 2.5 25.7 -2.2 16.9% -0.4% 19 1.19
Al Horford $8,300 $7,400 1.00 32.3 2.8 32.2 6.8 21.6% -2.4% 4 0.24
Marcus Smart $6,000 $5,300 0.80 30.4 0.5 24.2 1.6 20.7% -4.0% 13 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $5,000 $4,400 0.90 20.5 -1.2 18.5 1.6 19.5% 0.6% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Gerald Green, Terry Rozier, Jonas Jerebko

Chicago Bulls

Game 5 was the Dwyane Wade takeover. The vet scored 26 points and nearly tripled-doubled has he hauled in 11 boards and contributed eight assists. He commanded a team-high usage rate of 34.6% while Butler was down to 22.7%. As it turns out, Butler is dealing with some knee soreness. As a result, he was less aggressive and only made it to the foul line once after getting there for 23 FTAs in Game 4. The injury is concerning. He was able to go to shootaround today but was a limited participant. For the series, he’s averaging 1.06 DK ppm, a decline of 0.13. He’s averaged a ridiculous 41.5 minutes per game though, which is great, but there is a chance he has a slight reduction with his knee problem. He still has the highest ceiling at his position on tonight’s slate, but the knee thing is worth keeping in mind.

Should the injury continue to bother Butler, Wade could maintain a similar usage rate tonight. In Game 5, he also boasted a 40.5% assist rate has he did plenty of ball handling. For what it’s worth, he had two days of rest heading into that matchup as opposed to one day of rest before tonight’s contest. When he had two days off during the regular season, he shot 45.8% from the field and contribute 4.1 assists; with a one-day break, he shot 42.5% and added 3.5 assists. However, Butler’s knee problems may help him overcome those splits. He’s only eclipsed 36 minutes once in this series, but he could push it there tonight for the elimination game. As should Isaiah Canaan, who’s earned 36 minutes in a start after playing 34 off the bench in Game 4. He doesn’t offer a ton of peripherals, but he’s never afraid to shoot – he’s taken at least ten field goals in the past two outings and scored exactly 13 points in each. His price is still cheap enough on FanDuel to be a viable value option, but with a 0.59 DK ppm rate, his $4,300 salary on DK may be a bit too much.

The only other guy getting over 30 minutes is Nikola Mirotic, who’s played 34 and 35 over the past two. He hasn’t been great though, and he only scored 17 DK points last time out. He also only took six shots and we need more from him as he needs points to pay off his salary. Isaiah Canaan is more of a shooter than Rajon Rondo, which could be having a negative effect on Mirotic’s offensive output.

Robin Lopez was held under 30 minutes again, but he played 29 even though he was in foul trouble. It could be an indication that Chicago wants to increase his playing time despite Boston playing small. He went 6-of-7 from the field for 14 points and added a bunch of peripherals to score 34 DK points. He’s worth a look tonight as he’s had success against Boston when he’s had the time, but his workload just isn’t secure at this point.

Instead, the Bulls give plenty of time to Paul Zipser, Cristiano Felicio, Bobby Portis, and even Anthony Morrow got on the court for 17 minutes in Game 5 as the team searched for scoring. Morrow did well, hitting 3-of-5 attempts and he earned a bigger workload tonight. He’s cheap enough to be on the fantasy radar tonight as he delivered 13.5 DK points last game. He’ll be a dart throw though, as will the other guys mentioned. Portis has the highest upside as he’s produced 0.94 DK ppm this series, but his minutes were down last game to 12 and he might not get them back up. Felicio has topped 15 DK points twice in this series and he may have a more secure workload tonight. Still, it’s doubtful he exceeds 20 minutes so he’s not going to have a huge upside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Canaan $2,600 $4,300 0.54 15.2 19.9 8.2 10.4 15.7% 0.4% 18 -4.21
Dwyane Wade $7,500 $7,200 1.05 29.9 4.3 31.3 1.9 30.6% -5.3% 11 -1.13
Jimmy Butler $9,800 $9,800 1.14 37.0 4.5 42.1 -0.4 28.7% -1.4% 13 -1.56
Nikola Mirotic $5,700 $5,400 0.87 24.0 4.4 21.0 -0.4 19.3% -2.9% 24 1.37
Robin Lopez $6,000 $5,200 0.77 28.0 -0.4 21.7 4.3 17.3% -1.2% 21 1.59
Bobby Portis $4,100 $3,700 0.86 15.6 2.6 13.5 2.3 19.0% -4.3% 24 N/A
Paul Zipser $3,500 $2,800 0.55 19.2 2.4 10.6 0.4 14.2% -0.4% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Canaan, Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis, Cristiano Da Silva Felicio

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Utah Jazz
Article Image Vegas Total 192.5 Article Image Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 93.5 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Marreese Speights DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3 Adj. DvP 7 5 22 20 9
DRPM 0.60 0.04 0.13 -1.03 6.03 DRPM 2.71 -1.80 2.19 0.54 3.57

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are in a tough spot, they’re in a must-win situation on the road against the Jazz. We should expect Chris Paul to completely take over for his side as he’s pretty much been doing as is. He’s now averaging 27.0 points,5.6 rebounds, and 10.4 assists in 36.4 minutes per game. In Game 5, he had an assist rate of 70.4% but only managed nine total assists as the Clippers only made 29 field goals as a team. That’s where the slow pace comes into play. He still managed to score 28 points as he scored over a third of the Clippers’ FGs. Without Blake Griffin around, Paul’s usage will be super high tonight and he could still manage a strong fantasy performance if the game is slow.

Marreese Speights had been starting for Griffin, but he may lose his spot in the starting five to Paul Pierce. Over his two starts, he’s averaged a measly 0.43 FD ppm on an 18.6% usage rate. He simply isn’t getting it done and he only played 13 minutes last time out. He can’t really be trusted as a value option at this point. Paul Pierce produced 7.6 FD points. Even if he starts he’s not a very strong target as he played 20 minutes in Game 3 and returned 5.6 FD points. On the series, he’s averaged 0.34 FD ppm.

As expected with this tough opponent, most players are down in fantasy production. DeAndre Jordan is second on the team and he’s only averaged 0.76 FD ppm, 0.31 below his normal production. He’s had a double-double every game, but the intimidating presence of Rudy Gobert caps his upside, Jordan hasn’t reached 33 FD points over the past two games. J.J. Redick is down to 0.50 FD ppm from 0.72, although he finally broke out for a big game, scoring 26 points. He managed to get to the line for 10 FTAs, which is abnormally high for him as he averaged 2.6 during the season and he had nine total heading into the game. It was the second game in a row he had seven looks from three, which seems to be about his max for this matchup. Plenty of people will chase his line, but he still doesn’t have a great outlook in this series unless he draws a ton of fouls again.

With Redick playing well and Austin Rivers returning to the lineup, Jamal Crawford was reduced to 23 minutes. He won’t be a strong target now that Rivers is back as LA clearly prefers starter Redick. Rivers didn’t provide a great performance, missing all four of his field goals, but he should be around 20 minutes tonight, if not pass it. When Blake Griffin was off the court this season, Rivers averaged 0.73 FD ppm on a 24.2% usage rate. He’s an interesting value play at $2,100 on the site, but he definitely looked rusty last time out.

Luc Mbah Moute has been consistent; he’s returned at least 17.5 FD points in the past four games. His per-minute production isn’t impressive at 0.45 FD ppm, but his minutes are secure has he’s had 36-38 in four of the games and he’s never been below 34. He’s a potential pivot from Taurean Prince and he flashed some upside in Game 3 when he scored 15 points and 27.7 FD points.

Raymond Felton is also a potential value option, but his minutes dropped to 17 last game and he only returned 3.4 FD points. They could drop even further with Austin Rivers back in the mix, especially in an elimination game where Paul will get all the minutes he can handle.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $10,400 $10,300 1.26 31.5 4.9 39.7 11.6 28.9% 3.3% 1 0.60
J.J. Redick $3,900 $4,500 0.72 28.2 4.4 20.2 -6.6 21.0% -5.0% 2 0.04
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $4,300 $4,200 0.52 22.3 13.8 11.6 7.3 11.0% -1.2% 1 0.13
Marreese Speights $4,000 $3,900 1.03 15.7 0.2 16.1 -4.8 22.4% -5.6% 1 -1.03
DeAndre Jordan $7,800 $7,500 1.08 31.7 5.6 34.3 -1.6 14.6% -0.4% 3 6.03
Jamal Crawford $3,100 $4,000 0.70 26.3 0.6 18.3 -3.6 22.8% -0.9% 2 N/A
Raymond Felton $2,600 $2,700 0.70 21.2 -4.5 14.7 -3.8 17.8% -0.8% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Austin Rivers, Luc Richard Mbah Moute, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford

Utah Jazz

Rudy Gobert is back and he’s ready to log heavy minutes. The center was on the court for 36 minutes last game and he had a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds while adding five steals and a pair of blocks. He’s an exciting option tonight.He had really turned it up in the second half of the year. Over the past three months, he returned 1.13 FD ppm and 1.18 DK ppm. While his price may be a bit too expensive on FanDuel at $9,600, he’s much cheaper on DraftKings at $7,700. That’s a phenomenal deal on DK.

Gordon Hayward logged 41 minutes and scored 27 points. Discounting Game 4 when he had food poisoning, he’s scored 19 in every game this series. His usage rate decreased last game though with Gobert back to a full workload, it was 23.1%. Not only did the center have an impact, but Rodney Hood is finally getting some significant minutes. Hood actually led the team with a 31.5% usage rate in Game 5 and he took 17 FGAs. He’s now scored at least 16 points in consecutive games and he’s looking like a very interesting play heading into tonight. Although he’ll come off the bench, he could push towards 30 minutes and during the season he averaged 0.73 FD ppm. As his minutes went up, Joe Ingles dipped below 30 and Joe Johnson played 31. We also saw Derrick Favors drop to 12 minutes and Boris Diaw played 14 as Utah played small. It seems like Ingles, Johnson, and Hood could all be around 30 minutes and Hood arguably has more upside than both of them. Johnson’s usage has been high in this series, but it dropped to 19.9% with Hood out there for an extended run. He still managed a great fantasy performance by scoring 14 points and adding eight rebounds, but he doesn’t normally offer strong peripherals. Although Ingles does offer better production in that area, he only ended up shooting four times, and he probably won’t score much now that Hood is taking so many shots.

George Hill has seen his playing time remain secure at 36+. He was cold from the field, only going 3-for-12, but it was the fifth consecutive game that he took at least 11 shots. He saved his fantasy day by contributing seven assists on a 30.3% assist rate. It was the first time he exceeded four in this series though. It’s possible he was aided by the return of Gobert or the presence of an extra shooter like Rodney Hood as his assist rate has been down 6.3% to 16.3% in this series. Hill is a potential mid-range option among a nice selection of elite targets. He could have low ownership, but he’ll need to score a bunch of points and keep his assist rate up in order to provide a big return on his salary. With the way Hayward, Johnson, and now Hood have been playing, it could be difficult for him to become a leading scorer tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $5,700 $5,700 0.89 31.5 5.9 28.0 -3.2 24.7% -3.5% 7 2.71
Joe Ingles $4,900 $4,600 0.68 24.1 9.3 16.3 5.6 15.4% -3.0% 5 -1.80
Gordon Hayward $8,500 $7,900 1.00 34.5 -0.3 34.3 -0.8 27.6% -0.5% 22 2.19
Boris Diaw $3,300 $2,800 0.57 17.6 1.8 10.1 1.4 17.6% -0.7% 20 0.54
Rudy Gobert $9,600 $7,700 1.05 33.9 -13.9 35.8 -12.3 16.2% 1.5% 9 3.57
Joe Johnson $5,700 $5,600 0.68 23.6 8.3 16.1 12.1 18.7% 4.4% 22 N/A
Derrick Favors $5,800 $4,900 0.87 23.7 4.3 20.7 -0.5 19.8% -5.4% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – George Hill, Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).