NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 3rd - Page 2
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Memphis at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -4.5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Hamilton-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Memphis
The Grizzlies and Nuggets game has a total of only 192 points which to me says that Vegas expects the Grizzlies to establish their pace of play in this game. Like I’ve said in the past, when two teams with opposing paces face each other, I tend to give a slight boost to the slower paced team because they will pick up a few extra possessions and a slight downgrade to the faster paced team because they will likely have a few less possessions than their average. In this case, bump up the Grizzlies and downgrade the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have defended the PG and Center positions fairly well this season, but have struggled against the other 3 positions. Mike Conley still has me worried, he is just so hobbled that he doesn’t look like the same player out there. James Johnson continues to make a great value play on sites like FD where his price is still minimum salary.
- Zach Randolph – It may be hard to pay the price for Z-Bo tonight, but he very well may be worth it. The Nuggets are ranked 29th against the PF position this season and Z-Bo should have no problem scoring inside on the much smaller Faried. Randolph may not have the upside of a GPP play, but I think he makes sense in cash game.
Denver
The Nuggets aren’t in a great spot tonight. They have suspended Andre Miller, but that has next to no fantasy impact other than Nate Robinson possibly picking up a few extra minutes. The Nuggets are a tough team to predict right now. None of their bigs can be relied upon to play consistent minutes and Ty Lawson doesn’t exactly have a great matchup. He is at his best in fast-paced games. For the most part, I will be avoiding the Nuggets tonight because none of their matchups really stand out to me.
Utah at L.A.Lakers
- Vegas Line – L.A.Lakers -4, 200 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Young-Hill-Gasol
Utah
This is one of my favorite games to target tonight. The Jazz get to face a fast-paced Lakers team that has terrible defense. And the Lakers are playing extremely short-handed which opens up huge minutes for quite a few different players. This Lakers defense ranks in the bottom 5 against every position on the floor except for SF. There aren’t any Jazz players that you should avoid tonight, everyone is in play here. I like both Marvin Williams and Trey Burke, but my favorite two plays tonight are:
- Gordon Hayward – Hayward is coming off of a monster night against the Bucks last night and should be able to keep it going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. While Hayward is a wildly inconsistent fantasy player, I love his high ceiling and I love his matchup. The Jazz are one of my favorite teams to target tonight thanks to the combination of the Lakers terrible defense and fast pace of play.
- Derrick Favors – Favors has really picked up his game over the last couple of weeks and is finally turning into a reliable fantasy option. His minutes are still a bit confusing, but that shouldn’t factor in tonight. The matchup is good and I could see him topping 40 FP’s here.
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are extremely short handed right now. While Wes Johnson will be available tonight, they will be without Blake, Farmar, Kobe, Nash, and Henry. All of which play the 1, 2, or 3 positions on the floor. This is going to open up huge minutes for Kendall Marshall, Jodie Meeks, and Nick Young. They are all very much in play tonight.
Robert Sacre will get the start tonight, but shouldn’t be considered a viable fantasy option. My three top plays here are the 3 guards that I mentioned above. Pau Gasol is also in play, but he is dealing with an illness which could hurt his minutes a little bit.
- Kendall Marshall – Marshall will likely be the highest owned player on the board tonight. He is basically the only PG that the Lakers have and D’Antoni’s offense is built to inflate the PG’s numbers. Marshall is cheap across the board and should be in all of your lineups, both cash games and GPP’s.