NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 14th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-14 20:02:26

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Denver at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -10.5, 214 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Denver

The Nuggets have played much better offense since Ty Lawson came back from his rib injury, but their biggest problem is their defense. They haven’t held an opponent under 100 points since Feb. 21st and I don’t think they’ll be ending that streak tonight. As far as the offense goes, this is a tough matchup for the Nuggets. The Heat have played great defense this season with the exception of defending the paint.

The Heat are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league, grabbing only 47.4% of available rebounds this season. The Heat are also ranked 15th and 25th against the PF and Center positions so if you are going to target anyone from Denver, the bigs are the way to go. Kenneth Faried is finally playing starter’s minutes and has a nice track record against the Heat. Timofey Mozgov should likely be avoided though, most teams end up playing small to match up with the Heat.

Miami

The Heat have a terrific matchup against the Nuggets who are giving up the 3rd most points per game this season. If you look at the DvP rankings of the Nuggets, you won’t see any red rankings, that’s for sure. The Nuggets are ranked 17th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. Dwyane Wade would make a nice play tonight (assuming he is in the lineup), he is much cheaper than LeBron and has been posting similar stat lines over the past few games.

Chris Bosh – This may be wishful thinking, but I love Bosh’s upside tonight against the Nuggets. Not only have they struggled to defend the position, but Bosh has posted at least 22 points and 7 rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games. When Bosh rebounds the ball, his fantasy value goes through the roof.

Portland at New Orleans

Vegas Line – Portland -1.5, 201 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Lopez
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca

Portland

The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight and it will be interesting to see who they start tonight to match up with Anthony Davis. Dorell Wright had previously been the starter with Aldridge out, but the Blazers can’t be too confident with that matchup. Regardless of who starts, Thomas Robinson carries more fantasy value than Wright. Nicolas Batum really stepped up his game with the last time Aldridge was out. He makes a nice play tonight at SF.

Damian Lillard – The last time Aldridge went out, Lillard stepped up and had 4 straight games over 40 FP’s. I love the matchup for him tonight against Roberts and Lillard should be much more aggressive offensively tonight.

Robin Lopez – Lopez should have another quiet 30 FP outing tonight. He doesn’t dazzle you while he is on the floor, but his slow motion type of play works for daily fantasy. He has a nice matchup against the Pelicans who are ranked 20th against Centers this season and he should see a nice boost with Aldridge out.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are expecting to have both Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans back for tonight’s game. Both make solid fantasy options tonight, but Evans obviously has a much higher floor than Gordon does. The Blazers are giving up 102.9 points per game which is the 6th most in the NBA.

Anthony Davis – Davis has scored over 55 FP’s in 3 straight games and has to be licking his chops thinking about his matchup with either Wright or Robinson. If you can afford Davis, he should be in ALL of your lineups tonight. His price has yet to reflect his recent hot streak and this is a terrific matchup.

L.A.Lakers at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -17.5, 224 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

L.A.Lakers

There aren’t many nights when we see two lines as big as the Lakers and Sixers games tonight, but that’s what you get when you have this bad of teams in the NBA. One of my least favorite things to do in daily fantasy basketball is to try to predict the fantasy value of players in potential blowouts. The Lakers have all but given up on the season and are playing in the second half of a back to back after getting blown out in OKC last night. Ryan Kelly is probably the only Lakers’ player that you want to target tonight, the Lakers are giving him all the minutes he can handle and his price is cheap across the industry.

San Antonio

The Spurs have a terrific matchup, but Coach Pop typically doesn’t play his starters any more minutes than absolutely necessary. This game could easily be over by halftime and if that happens, who knows how many minutes the starters will see in the second half. You have to love the matchup for Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Kawhi Leonard, but their minute count could range anywhere from 20 to 35. With 9 other games on the schedule, I think I will be targeting some more predictable players and then have some exposure to the Spurs in some GPP’s.

L.A.Clippers at Utah

Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -8.5, 205.5 Over/Under
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers are 8.5 point favorites tonight, but luckily this game is being played in Utah or else we might be seeing another line around -15. The Clippers have been red hot lately as they have won 10 games in a row. They have a pretty decent matchup tonight against the Jazz, but the Jazz are one of the slower paced teams in the league.

If you look at the DvP rankings, the Jazz haven’t struggled against one single position, nor have they defended any one position particularly well. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are both in play, but you are going to have to pay up for them. The better route would be to take DeAndre Jordan and Darren Collison on sites where they are under-priced.

Utah

The Jazz face an uptempo Clippers team tonight and they may be doing it without Marvin Williams as he missed shoot-around this morning. If Williams does have to sit, give a nice fantasy boost to both Enes Kanter and Jeremy Evans. This could mean a few extra minutes for Derrick Favors as well. The matchup bodes well for the Jazz bigs as the Clippers are ranked 24th and 23rd against those two positions this season. Trey Burke has played well at home, but I do not want to take him against the pesky Chris Paul who has given the Clippers the #1 overall ranking against PG’s this season. Gordon Hayward makes a nice GPP play, he has a high ceiling, but his low floor hurts his value in cash games.

Cleveland at Golden State

Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 201 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Blake-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Cleveland

The Cavs find themselves in a very tough matchup tonight. The Warriors are holding their opponents to 98.7 points per game which is the 8th fewest in the NBA. The Warriors have also been stingy in terms of fantasy points allowed as they are ranked 14th or better against all positions. The Cavs have a tough matchup and are close to double-digit underdogs. That does not bode well for their fantasy value and they can be avoided tonight.

Golden State

The Warriors will be without Klay Thompson tonight as he will miss the game for personal reasons. While either Harrison Barnes or Steve Blake will start in his place, this really boosts the value of Andre Iguodala. His price is depressed and I think we could finally see him get a little more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. Stephen Curry is dealing with a quad injury and while he is tentatively expected to play, his minutes have been down lately and he could always end up being a late scratch.

David Lee – I will continue targeting Lee at his current price across the industry. Even though his value may go slightly down with Curry being limited, I like the matchup against the Cavs. He has topped 35 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games and should reach that mark again tonight.