NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 4th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 232.0 |  | Vegas Total | 232.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 118.0 | Implied Team Total | 114.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Nikola Mirotic | Anthony Davis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 25 | 27 | 21 | 19 | DvP | 12 | 20 | 11 | 28 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 17 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 25 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Pelicans gave the Warriors a game, but Golden State picked up another win in Game 2. They head to New Orleans needing to win two of the next four games to advance to the Western Conference Championship. On paper, they have the best matchup of any team left standing in the playoffs. The Pelicans were ranked 29th in points allowed per game during the regular season and the Warriors didn’t have any issues in the first two games, scoring 123 and 121 points.
Stephen Curry played 27 minutes off the bench in his first game back from injury, scoring 46 fantasy points. He’ll enter the starting lineup tonight, so I’d expect him to see his usual allotment of minutes (low to mid-30s). His current price is far too cheap if Curry is going to play 32-34 minutes. He’s an elite play in all formats. Klay Thompson fantasy production has been similar with and without Curry in the lineup over the last couple of seasons. As always, he’s not my favorite play on the board, but he’s certainly viable as the last piece into a lineup.
Andre Iguodala tends to play well this time of year and has opened the series with outings of 22 and 36 fantasy points. If he comes off the bench, he makes a better tournament play than cash game option. I slightly prefer E’Twaun Moore at a similar price point. Kevin Durant is the most impacted by Curry’s return. In the games that Curry played this season, Durant averaged 1.31 fantasy points per minute. In games that Curry missed, Durant averaged 1.47 fantasy points per minute. There is enough fantasy production to go around in this matchup, but I prefer paying up for Anthony Davis.
Draymond Green has been terrific so far this series, scoring 65 and 57 fantasy points. We shouldn’t expect him to sustain this efficiency, but the matchup certainly lines up well for him. Kevon Looney and David West have been great value plays so far this postseason and there is no reason to stray away from them now. In the first two games against the Pelicans, Looney has averaged 23 minutes and 20 fantasy points, while West has averaged 12 minutes and 20 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
None
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,700 | $8,700 | $18,200 | 44.1 | -1.7 | 32.0 | -4.8 | 1.38 | 28.1% | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,700 | $5,900 | $12,900 | 30.4 | 0.1 | 34.3 | 4.2 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 25 | 25 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,600 | $9,300 | $17,600 | 47.2 | 1.6 | 34.2 | 2.9 | 1.38 | 26.9% | 18 | 27 | 28 |
| Draymond Green | $9,000 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 36.0 | 10.8 | 32.7 | 4.3 | 1.10 | 16.7% | 25 | 21 | 11 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.25 | 16.5% | 14 | 19 | 1 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 18.7 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 2.1 | 0.74 | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kevon Looney | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 0.89 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $4,300 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 13.7 | 1.1 | 1.26 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson (FD), David West (DK)
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (DK), David West (FD), Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans put up a fight in Game 2, but fell short in the end. At the very least, they should know that they have enough talent to compete with the Warriors. The series now shifts to New Orleans, where the Pelicans will have their best chance of picking up a game or two. They come into tonight’s contest as 4-point underdogs with an implied total of 114 points. Most team totals in the playoffs are below season averages, but not in this series. Both teams are projected to score more points than they averaged during the regular season.
Rajon Rondo loves the playoffs. He’s always been an elite per-minute producer, he just hasn’t played a ton of minutes over the last few seasons. He has also struggled to stay motivated during the regular season. We can throw those concerns out the window, as Rondo has averaged 35 minutes and 42 fantasy points in six playoff games. He’s right there with Stephen Curry as my favorite point-per-dollar play at point guard, although Chris Paul deserves to be in the mix as well on DraftKings ($7,400). Jrue Holiday played 46 minutes in Game 2. In what amounts to a must-win game at home, the Pelicans might give Holiday the LeBron James treatment and let him play the entire game. If that happens, he should be able to exceed value, even at his hefty price point. As I mentioned before Game 2, E’Twaun Moore got into foul trouble in the first game, which is why his minutes were so low. He played 36 minutes in Game 2 and I’d expect something similar tonight.
Nikola Mirotic grades out as the best point-per-dollar play at any position in my model. He should see minutes in the upper 30s and he has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute during the playoffs. With so much interest in the other four starters, I may end up being underweight on Anthony Davis. This isn’t something that I’m doing on purpose, it’s just how my lineups are shaking out. Davis is the top overall play when we throw out the salaries, but is priced all the way up to $12,900 on FanDuel. His price on DraftKings ($10,700) is much more palatable. The only issue with playing him on DraftKings is that everyone seems cheap on that site. Mirotic, Paul, Capela, Holiday, and Curry all feel underpriced.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $7,500 | $7,300 | $14,400 | 27.0 | 15.4 | 26.2 | 9.2 | 1.03 | 18.3% | 11 | 12 | 17 |
| Jrue Holiday | $9,000 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 37.7 | 3.5 | 36.1 | 1.8 | 1.04 | 21.8% | 11 | 20 | 11 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 21.5 | -3.3 | 31.5 | -2.9 | 0.68 | 14.6% | 7 | 11 | 24 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $7,200 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 30.1 | 9.3 | 27.2 | 9.0 | 1.11 | 20.5% | 5 | 28 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,900 | $10,700 | $19,000 | 55.0 | 3.6 | 36.4 | 2.3 | 1.51 | 25.9% | 16 | 7 | 25 |
| Ian Clark | $2,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 12.4 | -4.1 | 19.7 | -0.7 | 0.63 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Darius Miller | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 13.1 | -0.5 | 23.7 | -4.3 | 0.55 | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore, Nikola Mirotic, Anthony Davis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (FD)
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Royce O’Neale | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DvP | 6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 6 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets suffered their first home loss of the playoffs and will now have to win at least one game in Utah to move on to the Western Conference Championship. If we’ve learned anything through the years, it’s that this is one of the toughest places to play, especially in the postseason. With that said, Houston does have more talent. They come into the game as 4-point favorites with an implied total of 106.3 points. Their total is the third highest of the slate, but six points below their season average.
Chris Paul hasn’t been great in the first two games, yet he has scored 37 and 40 fantasy points. I prefer Rajon Rondo and Stephen Curry on FanDuel, but Paul is firmly in play on DraftKings ($7,400). If you don’t want to play Davis, you can actually target all three point guards and make more of a balanced lineup. James Harden has been the odd man out in my lineups for tonight’s slate. I find myself going the slightly cheaper route with Donovan Mitchell and Jrue Holiday. It’s not that Harden is a bad play, he just doesn’t grade out as a great point-per-dollar option in a slate that doesn’t feature many value plays. Eric Gordon is playing over 30 minutes a game and worth a look as a low-owned tournament play.
P.J. Tucker has scored 26 and 29 fantasy points in the first two games of the series. While I like the increase in playing time, he has averaged 0.62 fantasy points per minute on the season. I’ll be fading Tucker tonight in hopes that he resumes his normal role. Trevor Ariza is fine if you are stuck and need a cheap small forward, but I’ll gladly play E’Twaun Moore instead. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute isn’t as cheap as he was the other day and I typically like to avoid role players on the road. Last but not least, we have Clint Capela. Center is pretty easy tonight, I’m Capela on DraftKings and Rudy Gobert on FanDuel. For whatever reason, Capela is $300 cheaper on DK and Gobert is $1,000 cheaper on FD.
Notable Injuries
None
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,800 | $7,400 | $14,400 | 40.4 | -2.3 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 1.27 | 25.8% | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| James Harden | $12,500 | $10,800 | $21,900 | 53.2 | 2.6 | 35.4 | 0.6 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Trevor Ariza | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 23.7 | -4.9 | 33.9 | 0.2 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.2 | 0.1 | 27.8 | 1.1 | 0.62 | 9.3% | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Clint Capela | $8,900 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 34.9 | 6.4 | 27.5 | 4.2 | 1.27 | 16.6% | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 25.4 | -4.3 | 31.2 | 0.1 | 0.81 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,000 | $2,700 | $6,000 | 16.2 | -3.7 | 25.6 | -7.3 | 0.63 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul (DK), Clint Capela (DK)
Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (FD), Clint Capela (FD), James Harden, Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (GPP)
Utah Jazz
My beloved Jazz pulled off the upset in Game 2, but still have plenty of work to do in this series. They will likely be an underdog in every game the rest of the way, so the odds are still stacked against them. They come into tonight’s game as 4-point underdogs with an implied total of 102.3 points. While that’s the lowest of the four teams in action tonight, the Jazz are missing their point guard and have a very tight rotation. This leads to more minutes and more fantasy production for the rest of the lineup.
Donovan Mitchell had one of the best highlights of the playoffs so far. He missed a short shot and followed it up with a put-back dunk over two Rockets. At this point, we shouldn’t bet against the rookie. He has incredible talent and plays with a confidence that I haven’t seen from many young players. Joe Ingles is one of my favorite contrarian plays tonight. The Jazz like to run their offense through him when Rubio is out and even when he’s playing off the ball, he gets plenty of open looks with all of the attention that Mitchell draws. Royce O’Neale was the chalk in Games 1 and 2, but nobody will want to pay this price for him after the dud he put up last game. He’s an intriguing contrarian play, as he should see 28-30 minutes and he’s playing at home.
This is a tough matchup for Derrick Favors. He doesn’t defend the perimeter well and the Rockets really only have one player (Clint Capela) that spends most of his time in the paint. Until we see Favors produce, we should have more interest in Jae Crowder. He has played at least 32 minutes in each of the first two games in this series and has topped 27 fantasy points in four of his last five games. As mentioned earlier, Rudy Gobert is an elite play on FanDuel, while I slightly prefer Capela on DraftKings. As for the rest of the Jazz, Alec Burks and Dante Exum should both play 18-22 minutes. They are intriguing values, but not core plays for me in this slate.
Notable Injuries
Ricky Rubio (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,900 | $8,300 | $17,300 | 33.2 | 9.4 | 33.4 | 5.1 | 0.99 | 25.8% | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Joe Ingles | $6,700 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 25.7 | 0.3 | 31.4 | 3.5 | 0.82 | 15.7% | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Royce O’Neale | $5,200 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 16.7 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 13.4% | 18 | 8 | 10 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,800 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 27.2 | -1.0 | 28.0 | 2.4 | 0.97 | 16.2% | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Rudy Gobert | $7,900 | $7,000 | $14,900 | 35.8 | -0.2 | 32.4 | 3.2 | 1.11 | 14.0% | 13 | 14 | 4 |
| Jae Crowder | $5,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 18.0 | 5.4 | 26.1 | 2.8 | 0.69 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dante Exum | $3,000 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 16.0 | -9.7 | 16.8 | -5.7 | 0.95 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alec Burks | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 14.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | -6.2 | 0.85 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |