NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 5th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-06 03:48:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		214.0					Vegas Total		214.0
			Vegas Spread		-2.5					Vegas Spread		2.5
			Team Total		108.3					Team Total		105.8
			Pace +/-		-1.6					Pace +/-		-0.3
Proj. Starter	Kyrie Irving	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Kevin Love	Tristan Thompson		Proj. Starter	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	DeMarre Carroll	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	11	3	3	5	10		Adj. DvP	23	29	26	9	17
DRPM	0.62	-2.21	1.09	0.84	0.71		DRPM	-2.16	-0.77	1.57	1.93	0.95

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Notable Injuries: None

• Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
  Points Per Game: 110.3 (4 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 108.3 (2 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -2.1 (3 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 98.4 (16 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -1.6 (3 of 4)

• Toronto Raptors Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (8 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (8 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (8 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.5 (6 of 30)

The Cavs won the first two games easily. Now they’ll head to Toronto as 4.5-point favorites; hopefully, this one will stay close. If it does, we should see Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love take on bigger workloads. So far, Irving has averaged 32.6 minutes per game while Love has been on the court for just 26.5 a night. Both guys were pulled with three minutes remaining in Game 1 and didn’t play in the fourth frame at all in the follow-up. When Irving has been on the floor, he’s led the team in usage with a 32.9% rate and he’s produced 1.27 FD ppm. While the usage is in line with his regular season rate, his fantasy pace represents an increase of 0.18. Kyle Lowry’s defense hasn’t been much of an issue for him as he’s double-doubled in both meetings with an average of 23.0 points and 10.5 assists. It’s possible Lowry is out for Game 3, which would make Irving even more appealing. His assist rate is nothing short of impressive at 50.8%, the question is whether that’s sustainable. To contribute in such a fashion, he’s directly cut into LeBron James’ rate, which has dropped to 19.3% from 37.4% in the opening series against Indiana. Essentially, Irving has transitioned from a score-first guard to a facilitator as James, who’s averaging 37.0 points per game, has fulfilled a role closer to what Irving normally does. It seems unlikely, especially in a road environment, that James doesn’t pick up at least a slightly bigger role as a facilitator tonight. Still, as a team, Cleveland is emphasizing pace and ball movement to attack this tough defense and as a team, they’re averaging 27.0 assists after posting 19.8 per game against the Pacers. Although it seems unlikely Irving can continue this lofty assist rate (only a few can), he’s clearly being utilized in a different fashion in this series. Should his assists drop a bit but the game stays close, he would be able to make up for it with scoring.

Love remains a somewhat distant third option on offense, although he showed a bit of life in Game 1 when he managed to take 13 shots on his way to 18 points. He ended up with some fouling issues in Game 2 and with the blowout, only ended up playing 21 minutes. He didn’t have a great first round by his standards, his usage dropped 5.5% to 21.8% and his per-minute production fell 0.23 FD ppm to 0.91. Against Toronto, he’s built those metrics back up to 24.6% and 0.97 FD ppm. We’d like to see better, but he still offers the highest raw projection at power forward on FanDuel. Cleveland’s style of play in this series may help him in the scoring department as 72.2% of his baskets were assisted this season.

Out of the big three, only James’ minutes have been secure regardless of game flow; he still played 37 in Game 2. He used that time to drop 39 points and contribute in all categories – six rebounds, four assists, three steals, and two blocks. He was ridiculously efficient as he only took 14 shots to accumulate his points – it helped that Toronto kept fouling him, enabling him to take 21 free throws. As mentioned, he could see his assists climb back up a bit tonight. Although he only collected six boards, his overall rebounding rate in this series is 11.8%, just 0.8% shy of his regular season rate. In the end, there’s not much reason to fade James on this slate; if he’s not providing a ton of peripherals, he’ll make up for it with points and vice versa. Plus, there is little talent available beneath him.

Somewhat surprisingly, Tristan Thompson is second in minutes (33.7). That figure is heavily influenced by Game 1 (38 minutes), but he had 29 in Game 2 without playing in the fourth. Coach Tyronn Lue seems very content with rolling Thompson out for plenty of minutes to help Cleveland compete on the glass. The strategy has worked so far, TT has a 19.6% rebounding rate, 2.9% above his normal production and he pulled down 14 boards in his one full game, nine in a limited second. A lack of scoring caps his upside, but he has a pretty solid floor.

Beyond those guys, there are a bunch of tournament options. Starter J.R. Smith has taken exactly four field goals in each of the first two games and his usage rate is 7.6% in this series. As we know, he’s a guy that needs to get hot to have value, but he may not even be provided the opportunity to get rolling. Channing Frye was able to come in and scored 10 points in an eight-minute stint overlapping the first and second quarters, but he didn’t get in again until the fourth with the game well in hand. He was able to add another eight points during that time, so he’s a good target if banking on a blowout. Iman Shumpert got in a few times during the game and he seems to have a spot in the rotation as he earned 15 minutes prior to the fourth. However, 13.8 of his 21.7 FD points came in garbage time. Kyle Korver only played eight minutes prior to the fourth and even with the advantages of garbage time, he only took four FGAs. Finally, Deron Williams picked up two fouls in the second and didn’t return until the fourth. He picked up extra time in Game 1 due to J.R. Smith’s injury and game flow; he doesn’t seem to be a huge part of the rotation right now.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith

Toronto Raptors

• Notable Injuries: Kyle Lowry (ankle, questionable)

• Toronto Raptors Offense
  Points Per Game: 106.9 (10 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (2 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 97.1 (22 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -0.3 (2 of 4)

• Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (19 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.2 (22 of 30)

The big news here is Kyle Lowry’s ankle injury. He missed practice yesterday and he’s questionable for tonight’s game. If he ends up being ruled out, Cory Joseph would likely start and become a nice value play. The backup ended with a nice stat line on Wednesday, although 18 of his 22 points were scored in garbage time. Should he start, we can’t expect the same type of performance. However, he should get plenty of minutes and he produced 0.70 FD ppm across 102.3 minutes alongside DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, and Norman Powell this season with an 18.1% usage rate.

DeRozan experienced a 3.5% decline in his rate in that scenario, but managed an extra 0.09 FD ppm, bringing his pace to 1.20. That would be a tremendous improvement over his current return of 0.63 FD ppm and 23.4% usage rate against the Cavs. He’s been terrible; not only is he averaging 13.5 FGAs per game, but he’s only connecting on 33.3% of his attempts. We can expect better tonight at home. His price has dropped, his ownership should dip, and all of that makes him an interesting option, albeit a risky one.

With the lineup mentioned above, Serge Ibaka had a 21.0% usage rate and his production plummeted 0.20 FD ppm to 0.61. However, he’s currently leading the team in usage for the second consecutive series (25.7%) and he was the best fantasy performer in the first round with a return of 0.99 FD ppm. He’s struggled a bit against Cleveland though, producing 0.85. His minutes have dropped due to game flow, but he earned 29.5 minutes through three quarters in Game 2. Overall, Ibaka may be a better target than similarly-priced LaMarcus Aldridge, who has been relatively quiet in the playoffs.

Heading into the second meeting of the series, the Raptors changed their lineup, placing Patrick Patterson in the starting five with Norman Powell ahead of Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll. JV, perhaps motivated by the demotion, came out firing. He dropped 19 points in the first half and ended up 10-of-13 from the field. He picked up 20 minutes without playing in the fourth, but it seems unlikely he’ll get a similar workload unless he comes out hot again. Patterson earned just 17.5 minutes in the start as he got pulled for Valanciunas early in the third. He doesn’t seem to be a great target as he’s delivering 0.58 FD ppm on a 13.2% usage rate this season, but he should pick up more time on the floor. Although P.J. Tucker was rotating in for Patterson – he ended up with 15.5 minutes – and it looks like they may be in a timeshare tonight. Norman Powell has a nice usage rate in this series (24.0%) and he’s produced 0.75 FD ppm. He doesn’t have tremendous upside when he’s playing alongside DeRozan/Lowry/Ibaka, which is highlighted by his six FGAs in Game 2. Still, he’s a nice value on FanDuel and he’ll be a much better option if Lowry is out. During the season, his usage increased 3.0% and he produced an extra 0.06 FD ppm when Lowry was off the court, bringing his pace to 0.80.

If Lowry is sidelined, a potential dart throw opens up with Delon Wright on DK, where he’s available for $2,000. He would presumably serve as Joseph’s backup and earn some time on the floor. It may not be enough for him, but he did return 0.83 DK ppm on an 18.7% usage rate this season when Lowry was off the floor.

As for Lowry, his usage has increased in this series to 22.4% and he’s returned 0.93 FD ppm. Those numbers are still below his regular season production, as he had a usage of 27.1% and set a pace of 1.05 FD ppm. He’s still struggling with the starting lineup as he has a usage of 15.9% and averaged 0.65 FD ppm when DeRozan/Ibaka/Powell have been in the game with him against the Cavs. His ceiling will continue to be capped in general, plus he’s dealing with an ankle injury. He’s a risky bet for sure.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Cory Joseph (if Lowry out)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, Patrick Patterson, Jonas Valanciunas

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Team Total		105.0					Team Total		109.5
			Pace +/-		3.8					Pace +/-		-2.3
Proj. Starter	Patty Mills	Danny Green	Kawhi Leonard	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Proj. Starter	Patrick Beverley	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Adj. DvP	25	26	23	27	26		Adj. DvP	8	12	2	2	2
DRPM	1.89	-1.81	1.54	-0.16	1.25		DRPM	-1.07	2.10	0.85	1.25	1.43

San Antonio Spurs

• Notable Injuries: None

• San Antonio Spurs Offense
  Points Per Game: 105.3 (14 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 105.0 (4 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (1 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 96.4 (27 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: 3.8 (1 of 4)

• Houston Rockets Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (26 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.0 (26 of 30)

The Spurs got worked by Houston in Game 1 but they immediately bounced back and won the follow-up by 25 points. It was terrible seeing Tony Parker go down the way he did. After getting off to a terrific start this postseason, the guard ruptured his quadriceps and will miss the remainder of the season. Patty Mills is expected to replace him in the starting lineup tonight. Undoubtedly, he’ll be a popular value option on tonight’s slate. It’s important to note that his production drops substantially when he shares the court with Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Pau Gasol. His usage falls 4.3% to 16.1% as he produces 0.70 DK ppm, a 0.16 decrease below his average. That’s not all too surprising though and he still remains a nice value at that pace.

Mills’ presence and Parker’s absence didn’t sit well with Aldridge during the season, his usage slipped 1.3% to 25.3% while his fantasy production dropped 0.11 DK ppm to 0.89. We saw a little life out of him in Game 2 as he took 14 shots on his way to 15 points in 30 minutes of action and he pulled down eight boards. This matchup should enable him to do better than he has in both scoring and rebounding. So far this postseason, Parkers’ absence had the opposite effect on him – his usage increased 1.6% and his production jumped 0.26 DK ppm to 1.01. This may be due to Parker’s aggressive approach on offense in the playoffs, taking some shots from LA. If this one stays close, he could finally be in for the big game we’ve been waiting for.

Leonard has also experienced a noticeable bump in production when Parker has been off the court. His usage leaps 6.6% to 38.9% while his per-minute production climbs 0.20 DK ppm to 1.56. He’s simply having an incredible postseason run and he’s already been able to take advantage of the Rockets by averaging 27.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. Houston gives up a ton of peripheral stats and Leonard may be called on to be more of a facilitator with Parker out, which would enable him to further increase his assist rate – it’s currently at 35.0% over the first two games.

As expected after Game 1, coach Gregg Popovich made some adjustments. He inserted Pau Gasol into the starting lineup and removed Dewayne Dedmon from the rotation. He ended up receiving 29.4 minutes before getting pulled midway through the fourth. With the help of four blocks and 13 rebounds, Gasol ended up posting 36.75 DK points in his first start of the playoffs. It’s a great spot for him; he produced 1.10 DK ppm against the Rockets during the season and he should get plenty of minutes if the game is competitive. Fortunately, his salary didn’t jump much in DFS, making him a fantastic option tonight. He was backed up by David Lee, who ended up with 10 minutes. Lee was looking like a nice value play when he was starting, but that value seems to have disappeared with San Antonio’s new approach.

After those guys, there are a few tournament options. Danny Green managed to play 31 minutes in Game 2 as he went 5-for-7 from the field. His minutes have been inconsistent, but he could pick up a slightly more secure role in the rotation with Parker out. So far in this series, Green has posted a 22.2% usage rate and produced 0.57 DK ppm. Manu Ginobili could pick up some extra time on the court with Parker’s injury. After a terrible start to the postseason, he’s picked it up a bit. In fact, he’s produced 0.96 DK ppm on a 21.7% usage rate over the past four games. He’s possibly too much on DK, but he’s $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel and he’s delivered 0.90 FD ppm during that stretch. It’s possible he finally pushes past the 20-minute. He may not have tremendous upside, but he’s not a terrible value at $2,800. Dejounte Murray is another interesting candidate for GPPs on FanDuel at $1,500. He’s only played 22.8 minutes this postseason, mostly in garbage time, but nevertheless, he managed a 26.6% usage rate and 0.81 FD ppm in his time on the floor. He’s very risky though as his minutes may remain in the single-digits even in this situation – he’s already missed four games entirely in the playoffs and Pop doesn’t seem to trust him yet. Lastly, Jonathon Simmons is someone to keep an eye on. He’s earned 20 and 21 minutes over the past two, mostly in garbage time, and returned 16 and 13 DK points. He’s just $2,700 on the site and he’s $1,700 on FanDuel. He’s a dart throw GPP option if interested in betting on a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Patty Mills (based on pts/$)

Secondary Plays – Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Dejounte Murray (FD)

Houston Rockets

• Notable Injuries: None

• Houston Rockets Offense
  Points Per Game: 115.3 (2 of 30)
  Implied Team Total: 109.5 (1 of 4)
  Projected Point Differential: -5.8 (4 of 4)
  Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)
  Projected Pace Differential: -2.3 (4 of 4)

• San Antonio Spurs Defense
  Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (2 of 30)
  Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (1 of 30)
  Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
  Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.8 (2 of 30)

The Rockets can be a difficult team to peg in fantasy as they roll with a hot hand approach. Ryan Anderson was on fire yet again in Game 2, going 7-for-9 on his way to 18 points, and despite having the worst box score plus-minus on the team (-26), he earned 35 minutes. Patrick Beverley wasn’t shooting well, but he contributed 12 points and played 30 minutes, the most he’s played since Game 2 against the Thunder. As a result, Eric Gordon played 29 minutes and Louis Williams got out on the court for just 18 after going 2-for-7. Gordon ended up being the second-highest scorer on the team with 15 points. He continues to be a safer option than Williams as he’s consistently earned a larger workload in the postseason, but Williams clearly offers more upside. Lou is an interesting tournament option in this game as he still remains affordable and should come with reduced ownership after scoring 3.0 DK points in Game 2. He was a tremendous asset in the first round; he was second on the team in points with 18.8 per game and he added 4.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists. He could easily pick up some more minutes if guys like Anderson are cold. That’s a good reason to be cautious on Anderson as well, he’s been playing great the oast two games but he was terrible in the opening series and his workload seems insecure. Of course, his ownership will continue to rise considering his recent performance and salary; pivoting off him in tournaments is an interesting play.

When it comes to Beverley, he’s in an awkward spot. There’s solid value below him in Patty Mills and possibly Cory Joseph if Lowry is ruled out, and Kyrie Irving could post a huge game if the Toronto-Cleveland matchup stays competitive. He normally provides decent rebounding, but he understandably struggled in Game 2 against the Spurs, and he scores inconsistently.

James Harden continued to struggle, he’s now averaging 16.5 points on 30.0% shooting. The Spurs have done an incredible job defending him. They’ve been very disciplined, only allowing him to get to the free throw line for 11 total attempts after he averaged 14.6 per game against the Thunder. Considering 31.6% of his points came from the line this season, this could cause a significant negative impact on Harden’s production. Side note: when Harden does his little arm hook BS on three-pointers, it should be a foul on him, not the defense. Harden injured his hip during Game 2, although he insists it’s fine, but that could add a bit of risk. On the bright side, he’s posted double-digit assists in consecutive games, a feat he was unable to accomplish in the first round. He also contributed seven boards after grabbing one in the first meeting. Against the Spurs, it will be difficult for him to meet his normal production in peripherals. If he doesn’t start getting to the foul line, he may not be able to score enough to pay off his salary. However, now that he’s at home, we could see some more favorable calls and he could find his stroke, but we should probably consider his ceiling to be lower than normal in this matchup.

Down low, Clint Capela and Nene continue their timeshare. The latter was ejected in Game 1 and the former finished with 20 points and 13 rebounds in that contest. Capela earned 25 in the follow-up and continued to be effective as a scorer, making 6-of-8, but he only hauled in three rebounds. As a team, Houston was severely out-rebounded by the Spurs 47-32 in Game 2. While San Antonio is the superior team in this regard, it won’t always be so lopsided and we can expect Capela to do better. So far this postseason, he’s earned 1.14 DK ppm on a 17.5% usage rate. He’s probably not worth spending an extra $1,300 for on FanDuel over Pau Gasol, but he’s $200 cheaper than Gasol on DK and makes for an interesting GPP pivot. Nene could earn extra time if Capela is cold and he gets hot, but he’ll most likely remain in the 20-minute area. He’s produced 0.98 DK ppm in the playoffs, which keeps him in play as a risky GPP option. His price on DraftKings has dropped below $4k, which isn’t terrible if he can get more time on the court.

Lastly, Trevor Ariza went back to sleep on offense after blowing up for 23 points in Game 1. He was just 1-of-5 in Game 2 and seven other players took more attempts than he did. He’s obviously capable of scoring, but that simply hasn’t been his role in the playoffs as he’s averaged 7.3 FGAs per game. He’s just another dart throw option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Louis Williams, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Nene, Trevor Ariza