NBA Grind Down: Friday, October 30 - Page Three
L.A. Lakers at Sacramento – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -7, 209.5
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Russell-Clarkson-Bryant-Randle-Hibbert
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Gay-Cousins-Cauley-Stein
| L.A. Lakers | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.15 | Team Pace | 100.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | D’Angelo Russell | Jordan Clarkson | Kobe Bryant | Julius Randle | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Willie Cauley-Stein | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 14 | 21 | 25 | Opp. Season | 30 | 26 | 23 | 14 | 22 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers narrowly lost to the Wolves at home in their season opener. Somehow the ball ended up in the hands of Lou Williams on their final possession and you could tell that Kober Bryant was not happy about it. He doesn’t have the most subtle body language. It will take some time for Bryant to gel with these younger players.
Sacramento Kings Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (22 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (24 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 7.0 (8 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 210.4 (23 of 32)
The Lakers draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The Kings like to play at an uptempo pace and they were one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season. The Lakers are small underdogs in this matchup, but they have a high implied team total of 101.3 points. The one issue that I should note is that no player saw more than 30 minutes in the first game of the season. Once again, a deep rotation generally isn’t good for predicting fantasy production.
Julius Randle was a feature in the Grind Down on Wednesday. While he hadn’t proven himself in a regular season game, the minutes and opportunity were expected to be there. He played well in 30 minutes, scoring 15 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. His price is very affordable for a starting power forward that is heavily involved in his offense. Jordan Clarkson had most of the point guard duties in their opener, but it sounds like the Lakers want the ball in D’Angelo Russell’s hands. I will be avoided that situation for now. Kobe Bryant is an interesting play on DraftKings. He is priced at only $6,800 and the Kings were ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards last season.
Elite Plays
Julius Randle
FD: $4,700 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.7
FP/Game: 30.2 — FP/Min: 1.01
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant
FD: $8,200 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 34.4
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min: 1.18
Sacramento
The Kings may not have won their season opener against the Clippers, but they played well and look like a team that could turn the corner this season. That is of course assuming that the likes of DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo can get along. The biggest story from their first game may be the fact that Cousins can shoot. He hit four of five three-point attempts. If he can knock that shot down consistently, watch out NBA.
Los Angeles Lakers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (26 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (27 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 12.0 (2 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 200.8 (18 of 32)
The Kings draw one of the best matchups on the schedule tonight. The Lakers have my favorite combination of a fast pace on offense and a terrible efficiency on defense. That leads to fantasy goodness. There won’t be many times during the season when the Kings have the third highest implied team total, so we should take advantage while we can. This game should be a shootout with plenty of fantasy production to go around.
DeMarcus Cousins is the premier play at center tonight. He is coming off of a 32 point, 13 rebound performance against the Clippers in what was a tougher matchup than what he will face tonight. He is too quick and too strong for Roy Hibbert and the Lakers have little semblance of what we call help defense. Rudy Gay is also an elite play in this favorable matchup. Rajon Rondo and Darren Collison are both in good spots, but it’s tough to predict which one will get more minutes.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,200
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 38.9
FP/Game: 46.1 — FP/Min: 1.32
Rudy Gay
FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 24.3
FP/Game: 25.7 — FP/Min: 0.83
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison
FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min: 0.81
Rajon Rondo
FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 15.5
FP/Game: 18.4 — FP/Min: 0.74
Portland at Phoenix – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -4.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Leonard-Plumlee
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Knight-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Chandler
| Portland | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 106.0 | Team Pace | 103.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Meyers Leonard | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 17 | Opp. Season | ||||||
Portland
The Blazers may be a lot better than most people expected. Or, they may have just had one good game in front of their home crowd. While Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will be an exciting backcourt duo, the Blazers lack the depth needed to compete in the West. That doesn’t mean that they won’t be full of fantasy value this season, though.
Phoenix Suns Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (22 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (26 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 5.0 (12 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 216.6 (26 of 32)
The Blazers draw a favorable matchup against the Suns. This is yet another game where we have two fast-paced teams squaring off against one another. The sample size is obviously still small, but the Blazers have the second fastest pace of play in the NBA so far. Portland has an implied team total of 101.5 points and their player’s salaries have yet to adjust to the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and Robin Lopez are all on different teams.
I typically like to start the breakdown with the player that I like the most in a given matchup, but how can I not start with C.J. McCollum. After a 24-point first quarter against the Pelicans, he was basically already at value. He finished the game with 37 points and six rebounds. He remains an elite play tonight, but his price has come up a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Damian Lillard is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. He is going to have to shoulder the load offensively this season and he has shown that he is more than capable of doing just that. He is going to blossom into a fantasy superstar overnight and we want to get in on the ground floor before his price gets too expensive. Meyers Leonard and Al-Farouq Aminu are both decent value plays here.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard
FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 32.7
FP/Game: 43.5 — FP/Min: 1.21
C.J. McCollum
FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 29.4
FP/Game: 47.7 — FP/Min: 1.29
Secondary Plays
Al-Farouq Aminu
FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 15.6
FP/Game: 21.6 — FP/Min: 0.70
Meyers Leonard
FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 18.4
FP/Game: 28.1 — FP/Min: 0.83
Phoenix
The Suns looked awful against the Mavericks on Wednesday night, losing by a wide margin at home. They will look to rebound tonight against the Blazers, who actually looked a lot better than most people expected. The Suns have the much better lineup of these two teams and we should see talent win out in this one.
Portland Trail Blazers Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.0 (7 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.6 (5 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 12.0 (2 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 176.3 (7 of 32)
The Blazers played very good defense in their season opener against the Pelicans, but New Orleans has looked out of sorts in each of their first two games. With the pace at which they play, I expect the Blazers to end up being a below average defense in terms of points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game. The Suns have an implied team total of 106.0 points tonight, so Vegas is expecting a nice bounce-back performance from Phoenix.
If you look at the box score from their game against the Mavericks, it’s hard to find a Suns’ player that really played well. They should have a much better outing against the Blazers in what is expected to be a fast-paced game. Eric Bledsoe is flying under the radar early in the season and he has that upside that we are looking for in tournaments. At his price point, I actually don’t mind him in cash games either. Markieff Morris and Tyson Chandler should both have better games down low, but they are better secondary options tonight.
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe
FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 23.1
FP/Game: 21.8 — FP/Min: 0.70
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris
FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 11.0 — Usage: 22.6
FP/Game: 7.2 — FP/Min: 0.65
Tyson Chandler
FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 17.0 — Usage: 11.3
FP/Game: 11.7 — FP/Min: 0.69