NBA Grind Down: Friday, October 30th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Oklahoma City at Orlando – 07:00 PM

Oklahoma City Orlando
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 208.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 100
Team Pace 99.55 Team Pace 96.84
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 21 9 30 20 23 Opp. Season 25 13 18 23 4


Oklahoma City

The Thunder opened up their season with an impressive win over the Spurs at home. With a healthy Kevin Durant and one of the best point guards in the NBA in Russell Westbrook, the sky is the limit for this team. The only real surprise in their first outing of the season was the fact that Steven Adams played more minutes than Enes Kanter, despite 15 points and 16 rebounds. Don’t be surprised if that minute distribution changes soon.

Orlando Magic Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 88.0 (4 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.8 (7 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 7.0 (8 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 189.3 (10 of 32)

The Thunder draw a mediocre matchup against the Magic. While Orlando wasn’t a good defensive team last season, they really slowed their pace of play down in the second half of the season. They played at a slightly below average pace in their season opener, so we could see that become a trend moving forward. The Thunder should still be able to get what they want offensively, as they have an implied team total of 108.5 points.

While there is some potential for a blowout here, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are both strong plays. Westbrook put up a cool 33 points and 10 assists against the Spurs and Kevin Durant scored 22 points, despite struggling from the field. Both players find themselves in favorable matchups, but neither stands out as a must play at their respective positions. Westbrook is a borderline elite play, while Durant is more of a secondary option.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 35.9
FP/Game: 49.4 — FP/Min: 1.34

Secondary Plays

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,400
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 30.4
FP/Game: 28.2 — FP/Min: 0.81

Orlando

The Magic lost a tough one in their opener against the Wizards. They had a chance to win, but a late bucket by John Wall put Washington ahead for good. The Magic don’t want to start their season off with two straight losses, but they are likely headed for that with a matchup against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (17 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 9.0 (6 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 209.2 (22 of 32)

The Thunder will likely be above the league average in terms of defensive efficiency this season. However, they are going to be one of, if not the fastest-paced team in the NBA this season. Their pace will give their opponents more possessions per game, which in turn will allow them to score more fantasy points. Even though the Magic are large underdogs at home, they should see a few extra possessions tonight against the Thunder.

The Magic have a lot of young talent and when that happens, it can be tough to give enough minutes to everyone. While I like what Aaron Gordon brings to the table, he isn’t seeing enough minutes to deserve fantasy consideration. The three players that we can rely on to see around 35 minutes per night are Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, and Nikola Vucevic. We may be able to add Tobias Harris to that group as well. Payton really stands out in tonight’s matchup against the Thunder. While Westbrook gets plenty of blocks and steals, point guards rack up fantasy points against him. Payton is like a mini-Westbrook in that he can also fill up all areas of the stat sheet. His price is only going to go up from here. Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo will get overlooked tonight. They both make for nice tournament plays.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton

FD: $7,500 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 35.0 — FP/Min: 1.00

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 25.4 — FP/Min: 0.88

Victor Oladipo

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 24.2
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min: 1.01


Miami at Cleveland – 07:00 PM

Miami Cleveland
miaminba Vegas Total 198 clevelandnba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 98.53 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 10 20 16 7 6 Opp. Season 9 5 7 6 10


Miami

The Heat played well in their season opener against the Hornets, picking up a win at home. They have a very talented starting lineup, the only question is whether or not they are going to be able to stay healthy. The main issues that I have with the Heat are their well-balanced offense and the fact that they play at a very slow pace. That’s not a great combination for fantasy purposes.

Cleveland Cavaliers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 86.5 (2 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 86.6 (3 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 8.5 (7 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 172.2 (4 of 32)

Miami draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are off to a terrific start defensively. Through two games, Cleveland is ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Heat have a implied team total of 95.8, which is the fourth lowest on the schedule tonight. You could take a chance on Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Hassan Whiteside, but why take the risk when we have better matchups to exploit?

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland

The Cavaliers have been like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in their first two games of the season. After losing to the Bulls in Chicago, they came out and put a beating on the Grizzlies in Memphis. Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert both remain out for the foreseeable future. Mo Williams will continue to be the biggest beneficiary.

Miami Heat Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 94.0 (7 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.2 (16 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (16 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 171.6 (2 of 32)

The Cavaliers draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat. Not only did Miami play at a very slow pace last season, but they were also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. If you look at the Defense vs. Position chart above, you will see a lot of red and yellow. We like to see two different colors in those pretty little boxes – green and blue.

The Cavaliers have a fairly high implied team total tonight, but this is not my favorite matchup to exploit. LeBron James is facing his former team and there will be plenty of “revenge game” talk, but he seems a bit overpriced for his matchup. Kevin Love has had a great start to the season and James was quick to say that the Cavaliers’ offense was going to run through Love this season. I will have to see that before I believe it. Mo Williams is another player that will be on people’s radar, but his price is starting to match his recent level of production.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

FD: $10,700 — DK: $9,700
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 27.9
FP/Game: 38.2 — FP/Min: 1.16

Kevin Love

FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 26.1
FP/Game: 34.9 — FP/Min: 1.09

Mo Williams

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 27.1 — FP/Min: 0.90


Utah at Philadelphia – 07:00 PM

Utah Philadelphia
utahnba Vegas Total 188.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 188.5
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 90.8
Team Pace 97.86 Team Pace 107.46
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Raulzinho Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Isaiah Canaan Nik Stauskas Hollis Thompson Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 28 28 15 25 30 Opp. Season 4 11 5 11 1


Utah

The Jazz played well in their season opener against the Pistons, but they fell short. I like their chances to pick up their first win of the season tonight, as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. The Jazz will likely have the same five starters as opening night, but I expect coach Quin Snyder to play around with some different lineups moving forward.

Philadelphia 76ers Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (26 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (22 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 6.0 (10 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 224.7 (29 of 32)

The Jazz draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. Anytime the Jazz have an implied team total close to 100 points, you know that they are in a nice matchup. The Jazz are all about a slow pace and playing great defense, so when we can expect their offense to score a lot of points, we need to take advantage. The Jazz are 7-point favorites against a very short-handed Sixers’ team that was basically the Coors Field of the NBA last season. EVERYONE is in play when they face the Sixers.

There are four solid plays on the Jazz tonight and it’s difficult to give a big advantage to any of the four. Derrick Favors had a big outing against the Pistons and looks to be in a good spot. Rudy Gobert should absolutely dominant the paint on both ends of the floor. Gordon Hayward should be able to get anything that he wants offensively. And Rodney Hood provides nice upside at his price point. All four are in play tonight in Philadelphia.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 28.3
FP/Game: 36.7 — FP/Min: 1.05

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 26.8
FP/Game: 24.8 — FP/Min: 0.86

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 12.5
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min: 0.73

Gordon Hayward

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 23.7
FP/Game: 19.3 — FP/Min: 0.54

Philadelphia

The Sixers didn’t look great in their first game of the season, but they were missing Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, and Joel Embid. All three players will be out again tonight and we could see another lopsided loss for Philadelphia.

Utah Jazz Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 92.0 (6 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.0 (15 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 169.6 (1 of 32)

When all is said and done, the Jazz may end up having the best defense in the NBA this season. Ever since they traded Enes Kanter and opened the door for Rudy Gobert to start, they have been an elite team defensively. They are also one of the slowest-paced teams, which only makes matters worse. With all of the injuries to the Sixers, they are going to rely heavily on Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, and Isaiah Canaan, but all three are secondary options at best tonight against the Jazz. The Sixers have the lowest implied team total on the schedule tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 21.4
FP/Game: 38.4 — FP/Min: 1.10

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 28.3
FP/Game: 33.9 — FP/Min: 0.89

Isaiah Canaan

FD: $5,300 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 18.8
FP/Game: 28.4 — FP/Min: 0.75


Toronto at Boston – 07:30 PM

Toronto Boston
torontonba Vegas Total 204.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 95.38 Team Pace 104.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder David Lee Tyler Zeller
Opp. Season 22 3 17 19 21 Opp. Season 23 14 22 10 13


Toronto

The Raptors were down by double-digits early in their season opener against the Pacers, but they were able to right the ship and come away with a win at home. Tonight they head to Boston to take on a Celtics’ team that also likes to push the pace.

Boston Celtics Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.0 (9 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 92.1 (8 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (22 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 181.4 (8 of 32)

The Celtics have only played one game this season, so it’s hard to put too much stock into the numbers above. Last season, the Celtics played at a fast pace and were well below the league average in points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game. The Raptors are small underdogs in this matchup, but they have an implied team total of 100.8 points. As long as this game stays close, this should be one of the highest scoring games of the night.

Kyle Lowry didn’t have the most efficient game against the Pacers, but he still a nice stat line of 23 points, three rebounds, six assists, and two steals. For whatever reason, his price at the start of the season has come at a discount, as he is priced below $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is a strong play tonight against the Celtics, especially with DeMar DeRozan matching up against Avery Bradley. Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll are also in play here, but they are better secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 39.0 — Usage: 25.7
FP/Game: 34.6 — FP/Min: 0.89

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 30.0
FP/Game: 42.0 — FP/Min: 1.17

Jonas Valanciunas

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 39.0 — FP/Min: 1.22

DeMarre Carroll

FD: $6,300 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 41.0 — Usage: 18.9
FP/Game: 31.6 — FP/Min: 0.77

Boston

The Celtics cruised to a 17-point victory over the Sixers in their season opener. While I’d like to be impressed by their performance, they were facing a team that was missing most of its best players. The Celtics face a much tougher test tonight against the Raptors at home.

Toronto Raptors Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (14 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 94.6 (9 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 10.0 (5 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 202.5 (19 of 32)

The Raptors were thought of by many as having an above-average defense last season, but the numbers don’t bear that out. They were ranked well below the league average in points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics have a surprisingly high implied total of 103.3 points, which is the eighth highest of the 24 teams playing tonight.

While I love the Celtics’ offense as a whole, we are going to run into the same problem that we did last season. Coach Brad Stevens has one of the deepest rotations in the NBA and with a well balanced attack on offense, it’s tough to predict where the production is going to come from each night. Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Jared Sullinger, and Jae Crowder are all in good spots here, but I’d rather target players that are a tad more predictable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 35.1
FP/Game: 42.9 — FP/Min: 1.48

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 16.6
FP/Game: 26.7 — FP/Min: 0.86


Chicago at Detroit – 07:30 PM

Chicago Detroit
chicagonba Vegas Total 199.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 199.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 98.26 Team Pace 97.11
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Joakim Noah Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 3 12 13 27 29 Opp. Season 19 2 28 8 7


Chicago

The Bulls held on to beat the Cavaliers in their season opener and they followed it up with a big win over the Nets. Fred Hoiberg has this offense rolling and with such a deep bench, this is a team to be reckoned with in the East. The Bulls will look to improve to 3-0 tonight, as they take on the Pistons in Detroit.

Detroit Pistons Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 90.5 (5 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.8 (11 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 12.0 (2 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 173.6 (5 of 32)

The Pistons were a middle of the pack defense last season, but so far they have played well in their first two games. They have held their opponents to 90.5 points per game and they are ranked second in rebounding differential. Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying in on the Pistons though, as the Bulls still have an implied team total of 101.0 points.

While I wasn’t the first to jump on the Nikola Mirotic bandwagon last season, I’m certainly on board now. I always have a hard time targeting bench players that don’t see consistent minutes – at least in cash games, anyway. But this season, Mirotic is in the starting lineup and he is really producing in this offense. He has scored 29 and 34 fantasy points (FD scoring) in the first two games of the season and he finds himself in a nice matchup against Ersan Ilyasova. Jimmy Butler is a reliable cash game option. The minutes and opportunity are always going to be there for Butler. Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose both seem a little overpriced at the moment.

Elite Plays

Nikola Mirotic

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 25.2
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min: 1.18

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 18.2
FP/Game: 36.4 — FP/Min: 1.01

Detroit

The Pistons improved to 2-0 on the season, after picking up two quality wins against the Hawks and the Jazz. If they could follow that up with a win over the Bulls, I would really start to believe in what Stan Van Gundy is preaching.

Chicago Bulls Defense (2014-15)

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (13 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.7 (10 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (18 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 204.8 (20 of 32)

As I’ve mentioned in the first couple of Grind Downs, the Bulls are not the same shutdown defense that they were in year’s past. Tom Thibadeau is no longer in town and Fred Hoiberg is more of an offensive-minded coach. That allows us to target players against the Bulls, but it doesn’t mean that they present a favorable matchup. They should still rank above the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.

As for the fantasy options in this matchup, there aren’t any that really stand out as must starts. There are four players that are on my radar here, but all four are secondary options in a difficult matchup against Chicago. If I had to roster one Pistons’ player tonight, I’d probably give the edge to Marcus Morris. He has averaged 36 minutes in the first two games of the season and he has had a bigger role in the offense than most people expected.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 22.2
FP/Game: 42.7 — FP/Min: 1.15

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 24.0
FP/Game: 28.8 — FP/Min: 0.90

Marcus Morris

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 20.4
FP/Game: 28.4 — FP/Min: 0.79

Ersan Ilyasova

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.73


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious