NBA Grind Down: Friday, October 30 - Page Two
Washington at Milwaukee – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -4, 205 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Humphries-Gortat
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Copeland-Monroe
| Washington | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 106.04 | Team Pace | 101.33 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Chris Copeland | Greg Monroe | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 8 | 21 | 16 | 15 | Opp. Season | 16 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
Washington
The Wizards only scored 88 points in their first game of the season. They played at a decent pace, but shot a paltry 39% from the field. Luckily, their defense kept them in the game, as they held the Magic to 37% shooting. Tonight the Wizards take on a Bucks’ team that also prides itself in playing great defense.
Milwaukee Bucks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 122.0 (30 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 121.5 (30 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (16 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 241.8 (30 of 32)
We can set aside the one game sample size of the Bucks for now, as they were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season. They have long, athletic defenders that can create turnovers and alter shots. As you can see from the Defense vs. Position table above, fantasy points were hard to come by against the Bucks last season. With so many great matchups on the schedule tonight, I will have limited exposure to the Wizards. John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Otto Porter are all secondary options.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
John Wall
FD: $9,600 — DK: $9,100
Min/Game: 39.0 — Usage: 28.1
FP/Game: 49.4 — FP/Min: 1.27
Brad Beal
FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 29.9
FP/Game: 29.2 — FP/Min: 0.77
Otto Porter
FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 12.3
FP/Game: 27.1 — FP/Min: 0.73
Milwaukee
The Bucks didn’t look great against the Knicks on Wednesday night, but we shouldn’t judge them too harshly. It was their first game with Greg Monroe as their starting center and they were missing Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was suspended for the first game of the season. We should see a much better performance tonight, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.
Washington Wizards Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 87.0 (3 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 83.4 (1 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -7.0 (23 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 200.2 (16 of 32)
The Bucks draw a difficult matchup against the Wizards, who were one of the best defenses in the NBA last season. The Wizards are typically a team that I try to avoid matchup-wise. The Bucks have a low implied team total of 97.3 points. With Antetokounmpo back in the lineup tonight, there aren’t any options that really stand out in this matchup. Luckily, the slate is big enough that we don’t have to target players from every game.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Charlotte at Atlanta – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4.5, 196 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Batum-Hairston-Williams-Jefferson
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Sefolosha-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| Charlotte | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.03 | Team Pace | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | P.J. Hairston | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Thabo Sefolosha | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 16 | 20 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 14 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 9 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets didn’t look great in their season opener against the Heat. While they do have plenty of talent on their team, they are expected to be one of the slowest-paced offenses in the NBA this season. That’s not great for fantasy production, especially when they are facing a quality opponent like the Hawks.
Atlanta Hawks Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (18 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (20 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -19.0 (30 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 212.3 (24 of 32)
The Hawks defensive numbers don’t look great through the first two games of the season, but they played much better last night against the Knicks. The Hawks should end up being a top-ten defense in terms of fantasy points allowed. Vegas seems to agree with me here, as the Hornets have a low implied team total of 95.3 points. Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, and Nicolas Batum are all a bit overpriced for tonight’s matchup. I will be pulling the complete fade here.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Atlanta
The Hawks are one of the only teams that are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight. After losing at home to the Pistons in their season opener, they bounced back with a win over the Knicks last night. The Hawks are going to be a great regular season team once again, but whether or not they will be able to compete in the playoffs is another story.
Charlotte Hornets Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (15 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.5 (28 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 2.0 (14 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 198.7 (15 of 32)
The Hornets were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA two years ago. Last season, they sort of fell apart on both ends of the floor. It will be interesting to see if they can get back to that elite level of play on defense, but that likely won’t happen until Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is back in the lineup. The Hawks have an implied team total of 100.3 points, which is slightly below the average of all teams in play tonight.
Fool me once, shame on you Bazemore. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and well, we will see what happens. While Bazemore has been a disappointment thus far, Kyle Korver has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should solidify his minutes. It’s a good time to use him in tournaments when everyone else is off of him. The Hawks’ big men – Al Horford and Paul Millsap – have both played well in the first two games of the season. Horford draws the better matchup of the two, as he squares off against Al Jefferson. Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder continue to cut into each other’s minutes and upside. I’ll be avoiding both on a night with so many options at point guard.
Elite Plays
Al Horford
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 34.8 — FP/Min: 1.16
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap
FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 23.8
FP/Game: 31.1 — FP/Min: 0.86
Kent Bazemore
FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,300
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 5.9 — FP/Min: 0.28
Brooklyn at San Antonio – 08:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -14, 203.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Ellington-Johnson-Young-Lopez
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
| Brooklyn | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.83 | Team Pace | 98.6 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Wayne Ellington | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 12 | Opp. Season | 15 | 24 | 8 | 28 | 16 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets were unable to keep up with the Bulls in their season opener, falling to Chicago 115-100. They are a team that is looking to rebuild, but you certainly wouldn’t know it if you looked at their roster. The good news for Brooklyn is that Jarrett Jack is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He is a big improvement over Shane Larkin at point guard.
San Antonio Spurs Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (26 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (23 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -9.0 (25 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 200.5 (17 of 32)
Even though the Spurs’ veterans are getting up there in age, they are still one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. That’s really the only reason why they may not be in the top five defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed. Greg Popovich-led teams are always stout defensively and there is no reason to think that it will change this season. Jarrett Jack could be worth a look as a contrarian play tonight, but I will be avoiding the rest of the Nets in what could easily turn into a blowout.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Jarrett Jack
FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,000
San Antonio
The Spurs lost a tough battle against the Thunder in their season opener. Playing in San Antonio may be a bit of an adjustment for LaMarcus Aldridge, as he only had 12 of the team’s 93 shot attempts. While the Spurs are a force to be reckoned with in the West, they will remain a difficult team to predict on a nightly basis. They have a well balanced offense and a coach that knows how to manage his player’s minutes.
Brooklyn Nets Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.0 (29 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 113.0 (29 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 6.0 (10 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 196.8 (14 of 32)
The Spurs draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Nets, who were an average team defensively last season. The Nets may not play at the fastest pace, but they aren’t the slowest team in the league either. The Spurs are 14-point favorites with their implied team total set at 108.75 points.
Even with the high team total, the Spurs are secondary fantasy options in this matchup. With a well-balanced offense and a potential blowout on our hands, we don’t want to have to much exposure to San Antonio, especially since there are 12 games on the slate tonight. Kawhi Leonard is by far my favorite play here, but there are better plays in the fantasy points per dollar sense.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard
FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 32.4
FP/Game: 48.6 — FP/Min: 1.39
Minnesota at Denver – 09:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Denver -4, 210.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Towns
- Denver Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Lauvergne
| Minnesota | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.59 | Team Pace | 102.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Joffrey Lauvergne | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 27 | Opp. Season | 29 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 28 | |
Minnesota
The Timberwolves barely held on to beat the Lakers in their high-scoring affair in Los Angeles. Minnesota still has a long way to go before they are going to make the playoffs, but they are going to be an extremely fun team to watch this season. Andrew Wiggins is dealing with some back spasms, but he is fully expected to play tonight against the Nuggets.
Denver Nuggets Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 85.0 (1 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 84.6 (2 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 5.0 (12 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 189.3 (10 of 32)
Take all of the defensive numbers above and throw them out the window. Or delete them from your mind, whichever works. The Nuggets are not a good defense and it’s only a matter of time before we see that. They play at a fast pace and they had one of the worst defensive efficiencies in the NBA last season. The Wolves are in a nice spot here, as Vegas has them installed with an implied team total of 103.3 points.
Ricky Rubio came out of the gates firing, scoring 28 points on 10-for-17 from the field. He also added two rebounds, 14 assists, and a steal. If Rubio continues to be this aggressive looking for his shot, he is going to have a monster fantasy season. I hesitate to list him as an elite play here though, as I’d like to see some consistency from him first. Avoid in cash and load up on Rubio in tournaments. Karl-Anthony Towns played well in his NBA debut, scoring 12 points and grabbing 14 rebounds against the Lakers. He should find success down low against a Nuggets’ team that has struggled to defend the paint for years. Andrew Wiggins is also a nice tournament play, as his bad outing against the Lakers should help lower his ownership percentage.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Ricky Rubio
FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 28.4
FP/Game: 52.4 — FP/Min: 1.59
Andrew Wiggins
FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 22.1
FP/Game: 8.2 — FP/Min: 0.28
Karl-Anthony Towns
FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 19.6
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min: 0.84
Denver
The Nuggets surprised everyone with a win over the Rockets on Wednesday night. Offense has never been the issue for the Nuggets and while their defensive effort was promising, the Rockets had a lot of careless turnovers. Denver will likely be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the West.
Minnesota Timberwolves Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (22 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (18 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -12.0 (27 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 194.6 (13 of 32)
The Nuggets draw one of the top matchups on the board tonight. The Timberwolves are a fast-paced team that had one of the worst defensive efficiencies in the NBA last season. Minnesota was also ranked near the bottom in rebounding differential. Much like the Kings/Lakers matchups, this should be a shootout between two bad defensive teams. The Nuggets have an implied team total of 107.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the schedule tonight.
In terms of fantasy options, there are a number of solid plays in this lineup. Let’s start with Joffrey Lauvergne, who drew the start for the injured Jusuf Nurkic on Wednesday night. He made the most of his opportunity, scoring 22 fantasy points at a bare minimum price. He is a solid value play again tonight. Emmanuel Mudiay wasted little time getting acclimated to the NBA with 17 points, five rebounds, and nine assists in his first career start. Gary Harris is a player that most people don’t know about yet. Let’s keep that secret between us. He should see around 30 minutes of action tonight and he is dirt cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari are also on my radar. Basically, this game is full of great fantasy options.
Elite Plays
Emmanuel Mudiay
FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 30.3
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min: 0.67
Gary Harris
FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 9.1
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min: 0.85
Joffrey Lauvergne
FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 14.5
FP/Game: 21.9 — FP/Min: 1.00
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried
FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 21.5
FP/Game: 36.3 — FP/Min: 1.17
Danilo Gallinari
FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 21.8
FP/Game: 45.1 — FP/Min: 1.25
Golden State at Houston – 09:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -1, 214.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
- Houston Proj. Starters – Lawson-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| Golden State | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 105.91 | Team Pace | 105.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 21 | 24 | 29 | 26 | Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 19 | |
Golden State
The Warriors had little trouble in their season opener against the Pelicans, but everyone could see that coming. It was the Warriors’ first home game since winning the championship and the Pelicans were short-handed. That’s not to say it wasn’t impressive, but we should see a much more competitive game tonight against the Rockets. One injury note to mention, Andrew Bogut has been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means Festus Ezeli will draw the start at center.
Houston Rockets Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (17 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (19 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (19 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 219.8 (27 of 32)
If I had to choose one game to watch on television tonight, it would be this one. We have two of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA squaring off in what should be a close game. The Warriors are favored by 1-point with the total for the game set at 214.5 points. The Warriors have the fourth highest implied team total on the board tonight.
Stephen Curry showed why he was named the 2014-15 MVP, scoring 40 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing out seven assists. He will likely have to deal with the pesky Patrick Beverley at some point, but he’ll have a nice edge in his matchup against Ty Lawson. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are also in play here, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry
FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 34.1
FP/Game: 59.7 — FP/Min: 1.66
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green
FD: $7,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 17.9
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min: 0.81
Klay Thompson
FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 24.7
FP/Game: 15.3 — FP/Min: 0.59
Festus Ezeli
FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,100
Min/Game: 17.0 — Usage: 25.8
FP/Game: 22.3 — FP/Min: 1.31
Houston
The Rockets were not sharp in their season opener against the Nuggets. They turned the ball over at an alarming rate and they had a number of defensive breakdowns. Better decision-making can cure the first half of that equation, while having Dwight Howard back in the lineup should help bolster their defense. Howard will return after serving his one-game suspension.
Golden State Warriors Defense (2014-15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.0 (9 of 32)
Defensive Efficiency: 89.7 (6 of 32)
Rebounding Differential: 23.0 (1 of 32)
Fantasy Points Allowed per Game: 172.1 (3 of 32)
This is one of those matchups where the pace and the implied total look very appealing, yet I’m still hesitant to roster any Rockets’ players in cash games. Last season, the Warriors were ranked first in defensive efficiency. James Harden obviously deserves a look as one of the top overall plays, but I am not going to force him into my lineup in a difficult matchup against Golden State. Despite their high implied team total of 106.8 points, I will have little exposure to the Rockets tonight.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
James Harden
FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 30.5
FP/Game: 43.2 — FP/Min: 1.20