NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-17 01:41:02

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 8:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Philadelphia 76ers
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		111.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Amir Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	15	20	9	12		DvP	4	14	1	6	7
DRPM Rat.	1	25	1	19	4		DRPM Rat.	21	14	7	8	2

Miami Heat

It is so great to have NBA basketball back in our lives. The level of play is so much better than it was during the last month of the regular season. The best part is that this is the first time in a long time that you can actually see a few different teams winning their conference. That’s not to say that the Warriors and Cavaliers won’t meet up in the finals again, but it’s far from a certainty. We have two games on tap tonight and both were blowouts in Game 1. The Heat lost to the Sixers by 27 points. While it was an impressive effort from a Joel Embiid-less Sixers’ team, we shouldn’t put a ton of stock into the game log since it was a blowout. The Heat come into tonight’s game as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is slightly higher than their average points per game during the regular season.

When we have these two-game slates, we are going to have to target players that we don’t have a lot of confidence in. These slates are as much about lineup construction as anything else. Ultimately, you want to make the lineup that you feel the least gross about rather than targeting a few players and building from there. Even in the blowout, Goran Dragic played 31 minutes and scored 23 fantasy points. The Sixers have been tough on point guards all season, but Dragic is affordable and has a secure role. Believe it or not, but that’s not the case for any other point guard available tonight. Tyler Johnson only played 18 minutes in Game 1. While that could certainly change this time around, he’ll need to play well right out of the gate. I still prefer Dwyane Wade over Johnson, as he has the edge in terms of playoff experience and per-minute fantasy production.

Josh Richardson is probably the next safest play from the Heat in terms of minutes. If this game stays relatively close, I’d be surprised if he didn’t play minutes in the low 30s. The issue is the same as it was on Saturday, he’s going to be defended by Robert Covington, who is an elite defender. Justise Winslow could be a nice pivot given how well he played in the series’ opener. Granted, some of that production came in garbage time, but he may have earned a few extra minutes in the rotation. Kelly Olynyk stole the show in Game 1, but he’s as streaky as any player in the NBA. If he’s going to garner ownership at a $6,000+ price tag, I will gladly pivot to some of the other options at power forward. One of which is James Johnson, who had a tremendous final month of the regular season. I’m expecting a nice bounce-back game from Johnson and we can target him at a lower price point and potentially at lower ownership as well.

What on earth do we do with Hassan Whiteside? He played fairly well in the first quarter of Game 1, but only ended up playing eight minutes in the first half. To start the second half, the Sixers went on a big run and Erik Spoelstra immediately went to his bench. In total, Whiteside played 12 minutes and scored 15 fantasy points. That’s incredibly scary for the most expensive center on the board, but I’m willing to go right back to the well, especially on FanDuel ($6,800). The Heat need Whiteside to be aggressive if they want to compete in this series and I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to get him involved early. If you disagree with me on Whiteside and think this is a bad matchup, Bam Adebayo is worth a look off the bench.

Notable Injuries

None

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (2 of 4)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside (FD)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (DK), Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have now won 17 straight games dating back to the regular season. They almost feel like an unstoppable force and with the way the Raptors and Cavaliers struggled in the first game of their respective series, they have to be feeling good about their chances to come out of the East. We know that the Heat are a tough matchup on paper, but that can be said about most of the teams in the playoffs. The important number is the Sixers’ implied total of 111 points. It’s the highest on the board and it’s higher than their season average. This is impressive, especially given the fact that they are playing without Joel Embiid.

Ben Simmons was basically unstoppable in Game 1, scoring 50 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. The fact that he played so well makes me think the Heat will give more minutes to Hassan Whiteside, who is their best rim protector. Simmons is expensive on FanDuel (especially in a slate that doesn’t have much value), but an elite option on DraftKings ($9,700). J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli have been quite the shooting guard duo over the last few weeks. They are basically seeing a similar allotment of minutes each night and they offer similar per-minute production. Salaries aside, I still prefer Redick. However, Belinelli is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. Robert Covington only played 27 minutes in Game 1 and hopefully the game log watchers will be worried and fade him tonight. The only reason his minutes were limited was foul trouble. Expect minutes in the mid-30s tonight, making him one of the top options at small forward.

Dario Saric has been a monster every time Joel Embiid is forced to miss games. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 24 fantasy points playing next to Embiid and 29 fantasy points without him in the lineup. Saric didn’t have a huge fantasy outing in Game 1, but he put up 31 fantasy points. That’s certainly acceptable at his price point. I have respect for the defense of James Johnson, but Saric is an elite play once again. Ersan Ilyasova continues to crush night after night, but a $7,300 price tag on FanDuel keeps me far away. If you want to play Ilyasova, I’d suggest using him on DraftKings or FantasyDraft. Amir Johnson is one of my favorite value plays of the slate. If Hassan Whiteside is going to play more than 12 minutes, that’s good news for Amir Johnson, who is their best low post defender. He’s only $3,800 on DraftKings and can be used as a power forward or a center.

Notable Injuries

Joel Embiid (Out)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (1 of 4)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dario Saric, Ben Simmons (DK), J.J. Redick (FD), Marco Belinelli (DK), Robert Covington (DK), Amir Johnson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (FD), J.J. Redick (DK), Marco Belinelli (FD), Robert Covington (FD), Amir Johnson (FD), Ersan Ilyasova (DK)

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		98.0					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		2.2					Pace Projection +/-		-2.4
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Patty Mills	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge		Projected Starters	Andre Iguodala	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	JaVale McGee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	15	23	11	26	6		DvP	5	2	5	3	4
DRPM Rat.	2	11	24	3	25		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	1	8

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs fell flat in their series opener against the Warriors. After Golden State seemingly limped into the playoffs, many were expecting a competitive series between these two teams. While I don’t want to put too much stock into a single game, the Spurs looked out of sorts. Their best bet is going to be in games three and four. They check into tonight’s game as 9.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 98 points. I don’t think the Spurs will win here, but I do hope that they can keep the game close. With only two games on the schedule tonight, we can’t afford to fade a team completely because our player pool is so limited.

I warned everyone about using Dejounte Murray in the playoffs and then I went out and put him in my main lineup on DraftKings. Sometimes, it’s best to listen to your own advice. As predicted, he made some mistakes early and only played 11 minutes through the first three quarters. Greg Popovich was nice enough to let him play the entire fourth quarter, but that’s not something we can rely on moving forward. If he’s playing well, he’s going to see 28-32 minutes. I wouldn’t look his way in cash games, but Murray still provides good upside in tournaments. Tony Parker only played 13 minutes in Game 1, but he didn’t see the floor in the final 19 minutes of the game. If this game stays close, 18-20 minutes isn’t out of the question for Parker.

Predicting the Spurs’ rotation has always been difficult, but it’s especially so in this series. Patty Mills seems to have his role secured more than the likes of Danny Green and Kyle Anderson, who only logged 22 and 11 minutes in Game 1. Mills didn’t play well at all, yet he still saw 27 minutes in the first three quarters. We’ve seen him get hot and put points on the board quickly. He’s my favorite of the three players mentioned. Green is dirt cheap across the industry and could easily have a solid bounce-back effort. Anderson is strictly a tournament play at this point, although it’s worth noting that he averaged 30 fantasy points per game against the Warriors this season. Rudy Gay was the one Spurs’ player that showed up in Game 1. He’s likely their best chance of slowing Kevin Durant down, which is good for his playing time. Gay is priced at a premium, but I could see him playing 25+ minutes if this game stays close.

LaMarcus Aldridge owned the Warriors in their four regular season meetings, but couldn’t get anything to drop in Game 1. If the Spurs have any chance of winning this game, they will need a big outing from their best player. He’s risky due to the fact that he’ll sit the fourth quarter of a blowout, but we know where the production is going to come from if this game stays close. Everyone will gravitate to Ben Simmons at power forward, which makes Aldridge a great pivot in tournaments. This is a bad matchup for Pau Gasol. He doesn’t defend small fives well and he is at his best in a half-court setting, while the Warriors are trying to play this game in transition. Gasol is viable on FanDuel thanks to a lack of options at center, but I don’t feel great about it.

Notable Injuries

Joffrey Lauvergne (Out)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (3 of 4)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rudy Gay, Patty Mills (GPP), LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP), Danny Green (FD)

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills (Cash), LaMarcus Aldridge (Cash), Danny Green (DK), Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson (GPP), Pau Gasol (FD)

Golden State Warriors

I’ll admit that I had my concerns with this team heading into the playoffs. They are without Stephen Curry for at least the first round, they were playing their worst basketball of the season, and they drew a first round matchup against one of the best coaches of all time. They quickly squashed those concerns in Game 1, putting on a clinic against one fo the best defensive teams in the league. The Warriors are listed as 9.5-point favorites tonight and have the second highest implied total of the slate at 107.5 points.

The Warriors’ opted to start Andre Iguodala at point guard in Game 1. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game, but that obviously meant Dejounte Murray was covered by either Klay Thompson or Iguodala, which likely led to his poor outing. Anyway, back to the Warriors. Iguodala only played 23 minutes, but he didn’t see the floor in the fourth quarter. He’s arguably the top value play of the slate, especially if he draws another start. He has a ton of experience this time of year and is going to make the smart decisions that Steve Kerr is looking for. Quinn Cook is an easy fade now that he’s not playing 35+ minutes a night. Klay Thompson played well in Game 1 and will be a popular target at shooting guard. I won’t talk anyone out of playing him, but he’s a shooter in a difficult matchup. Anytime we have a player that relies heavily on scoring for his fantasy production, I don’t mind being underweight on the field.

Kevin Durant is the top overall play of the slate. He got off to a hot start and then coasted the rest of the game. As long as Stephen Curry is out, I will continue to play Durant in both cash games and tournaments. Draymond Green price came up across the industry, which is good given how popular he was in Game 1. He played 34 minutes in Game 1 and sat the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter. You can make a case for all three of the Warriors’ superstars, but I prefer Durant and Green over Thompson. JaVale McGee was tremendous in Game 1, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat. While he’s very productive on the floor, there’s a good chance that he’ll only play 10-12 minutes. I see him as a good fade in tournaments, especially if the ownership is going to be high. I would rather play David West or Kevon Looney at lower ownership.

Notable Injuries

Andre Iguodala (Probable)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.0 (4 of 4)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, David West, Kevon Looney