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NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 24th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-25 02:13:05

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Toronto Raptors
Article Image Vegas Total 192.0 Article Image Vegas Total 192.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 93.0 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10 Adj. DvP 16 7 10 7 15
DRPM 0.62 -2.21 -1.29 1.09 0.84 DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

Tonight’s three-game slate features two series playing at paces of 103.96 or faster and the Bucks-Raptors game with an average pace of 93.43. As a result, Milwaukee has an implied total of 93.0 points, 10.6 below their average. Unlike previous slates this series has been featured on, which had many teams with low totals, this information is important to consider. Four of the six teams have implied totals of 104.5 or higher and they’re expected to get several extra possessions, providing more assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks in addition to points. From a cash game perspective, it probably makes sense to be underweight on this game, but there is some merit to using more of these players in tournaments from a game theory standpoint as they’ll come with suppressed ownership.

Game 4 was ugly for the Bucks, they turned the ball over 21 times, shot 37.0% from the field and 23.8% from three. In terms of fantasy points, they only accumulated 162.0 FD points combined and their top fantasy performer, Giannis Antetokounmpo, scored 31.8 FD points. He went 6-for-19 from the field and only contributed four assists. As a team, partially due to the slow pace and also as a result of poor field goal percentage, Milwaukee had 16.0 assists total. Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton each had three. The rookie Brogdon wasn’t able to save his fantasy day either as he scored two points and grabbed five rebounds. He only played 28 minutes and that’s the second game in a row he’s received that amount of time on the floor. In Game 3 everyone’s minutes were down due to the blowout and in Game 4, Brogdon was struggling a bit. His minutes should come back up into the 30s, but he may be a risky choice as his usage is down a tick to 18.9% and his per-minute production has slipped to 0.68 from 0.79 FD ppm. He remains an interesting tournament choice as he is capable of contributing points, rebounds, and assists; so far in this series he’s averaging 7.3 ppm, 5.5 rpg, and 4.3 apg. The primary concerns are with scoring, as he’s averaging 8.8 FGAs per game, barely above his regular season average of 8.5, and assisting, as his rate is down 4.7% to 19.7%. The latter issue may be due to Khris Middleton’s style of play this postseason as he’s taken on a larger role in facilitating the offense. We can see this in their passing. Middleton is averaging 45.3 passed made and 48.5 passes received per game this postseason, while he made 37.8 and received 40.0 during the regular season. He’s also become more effective, raising his assist-to-pass percentage to 11.8% from 9.0%. At the same time, Brogdon has received an extra 1.1 passes (45.5) in the playoffs while receiving an extra 0.3 (46.3) and his assist-to-pass percentage has declined 0.2% to 9.3%.

Middleton has been inconsistent in the three primary stat categories against the Raptors, but he’s done well enough in one or two of the categories each game to have a floor of 25.7 FD points, which was his final line in Game 4. He ended with a double-double, scoring ten while hauling in 11 rebounds, but it’s not a good enough performance for his current salary. As mentioned, his assists were likely down as a result of poor team shooting, and his own scoring was inefficient as it took him 13 shots to score those ten points. We got a glimpse of what he’s capable of in Game 3, when he scored 20 and added seven assists and three rebounds on his way to 38.1 FD points. The slow pace of the series will make it more difficult than normal for him to have “complete” games, but his added minutes will continue to help. On tonight’s slate, he’s going to have the highest projection at his position on FanDuel (second on DraftKings) if Kevin Durant ends up being ruled out, but in that situation Andre Iguodala would join Evan Turner has solid points-per-dollar options, both of whom are in the fastest series of the playoffs. Also, from the same game, Normal Powell is a nice value play at small forward on DraftKings (he’s a shooting guard on FD).

Antetokoumpo is the top projected small forward on DK and shooting guard on FD. Kidd pushed him to 42 minutes last game and he should keep receiving a huge workload if the games are close. So far this series, he’s averaging 21.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Although his points and assists are down a bit, his rebounding is up. He should keep grabbing boards with his height advantage as Toronto emphasizes smaller lineups. His points should come up as well, he’s averaging 17.5 FGAs per game, 1.8 above his average, but we’d like to see him taken more shots than that. As for assists, although we know Middleton has stepped up his game, the Greek Freak should be doing more on that front. He’s second in the playoffs in passes per game (74.0), only behind Draymond Green. That’s well above his 57.4 average in the regular season, and it’s 9.5 more than Russell Westbrook. Based on the way he’s playing, we should see him start accumulating more assists.

Milwaukee offers a couple of bench guys worth attention: Greg Monroe and Michael Beasley. Monroe has been crushing, his usage is up 4.4% to 28.9%, and his per-minute production has spiked up to 1.34 from 1.1 FD ppm. His minutes remain an issue as he splits time with starter Thon Maker and he’s averaging 23.8 minutes per game as a result. He’s an interesting tournament play, but his price makes him less appealing for cash, because he needs to keep playing at an insane level when he’s on the floor to make up for the lack of playing time. That said, the center position on FanDuel is a wasteland tonight. Beasley is an interesting tournament option on FanDuel at $1,800. He’s received at least 15 minutes the past two games, which isn’t a ton, but he’s managed to take exactly nine shots in each one and he’s averaged four rebounds. He’s an extremely risky choice, but his price tag is alluring as he can get hot. Tony Snell is starting and playing 29.4 minutes a night. He was one of the few Bucks to shoot well in Game 4, converting 7-of-12 attempts overall and 5-of-10 from three, but he’s averaged 8.8 FGAs per game, and even with a game like that, he turned in 22.8 FD points as he doesn’t turn in big peripheral stat lines. He doesn’t seem worth the risk as he doesn’t have much upside relative to his current salary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,400 $5,100 0.79 26.4 -2.1 21.0 -2.6 20.5% -0.3% 11 0.62
Tony Snell $4,100 $4,100 0.52 29.2 -1.2 15.1 -1.3 12.0% 0.5% 3 -2.21
Khris Middleton $7,000 $6,600 0.84 30.7 0.9 25.8 -3.8 23.0% -3.1% 3 -1.29
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,700 $9,900 1.28 35.6 -1.5 45.7 -6.6 29.2% -1.3% 5 1.09
Thon Maker $3,900 $3,400 0.82 9.9 9.2 8.1 6.2 16.9% -2.4% 10 0.84
Greg Monroe $6,800 $5,700 1.09 22.5 -2.6 24.6 -4.3 24.1% 3.9% 10 N/A
Matthew Dellavedova $3,600 $3,100 0.63 26.1 -2.8 16.5 -3.7 19.4% 1.7% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Greg Monroe (FD, DK GPP), Michael Beasley (FD GPP)

Toronto Raptors

A similar warning applies to this team regarding the pace of play. Toronto has an implied total of 7.9 points below their average (99.0). That doesn’t mean a scorer like DeMar DeRozan can’t rack up fantasy points as he scored 55.3 FD points in Game 4 when the team put up 87 total points on the scoreboard. He followed up his 0-for-8 performance by going 12-of-22 from the field and added nine free throws on his way to 33 points. He also pulled down nine rebounds, perhaps benefitting from Jonas Valaciunas moving to the bench. He finished with a 36.3% usage rate to Kyle Lowry’s 19.1%. Lowry may simply be the odd man out between them and Serge Ibaka, who boasted a 33.6% usage rate. Lowry had a quiet first half and eventually turned it on in the second, finishing with 18 points, four assists, and four rebounds. He may not have been able to finish with that stat line had Ibaka not been in foul trouble and limited to 26 minutes. While Serge was on the floor, he shot the ball 16 times, while Lowry took 17 FGAs across 43 minutes. Had Ibaka not been so inefficient with his opportunities – he scored 10 points on a 25.0% FG% – he could have had a monster game because he still finished with 30.1 FD points.

Toronto has been focusing on small lineups and in game 4, they moved Ibaka to center in the starting lineup and Valanciunas to the bench. This likely enabled him to do better on the glass, he had a 16.4% rebounding percentage, which is 4.0% above his average with the Raptors this season. Assuming they go with the same lineup, Ibaka is going to be a fantastic mid-range pivot off higher-priced PFs, Draymond Green and Paul Millsap, both of whom will come with high ownership. Even in the slower game, he should take plenty of shots and be successful on the glass against a Bucks team that was the second-worst rebounding team after the break (47.4%).

There is some concern that Normal Powell’s presence in the starting lineup could take away scoring opportunities from Ibaka. During the regular season, these two were on the court with DeMar DeRozan for 64.1 minutes. In that small sample, Powell’s usage rose 3.1% while Ibaka’s decreased by 2.4% and he took 1.75 fewer FGAs every 36 minutes. However, that was not the case in their playoff game together, and it looks like Ibaka has cemented a high usage rate within this team during the postseason. Powell is still an interesting value target tonight; he managed to score 24.8 FD points in 34 minutes of action. He didn’t play any minutes with Ibaka/DeRozan/Lowry during the regular season, but when he was on with DeRozan and Lowry (84.3 minutes), he maintained a usage rate of 22.0% and a production rate of 0.79 FD ppm. Both will likely be lower when Ibaka is on – Powell has a 12.3% usage rate in Game 4 – but he’s expected to play into the mid-30s again and he’s $3.8k on DK and $3.1 on FD. His assist production from last game (he had 4) is a little suspect as he had an abnormally high rate of 19.5%, 10.2% above his average. That was likely due to Lowry’s poor performance – he had an 18.6% assist rate – and Powell’s is likely to decrease if Lowry can get it together. He’ll need to score more in that case, which is very possible as he only took seven shots and he averaged 6.7 FGAs during the season in 18.0 minutes per game. Although in order to do so, he’ll need to cut into the big three’s production, as they all took at least 16 attempts last game. Lowry took 17 shots himself, and he or Ibaka are the two likeliest to lose opportunities if Powell gets more looks as DeRozan will remain the primary scorer. Hopefully, Lowry can be a better facilitator and up his assists, but again, he may be the odd man out, and if DeRozan keeps scoring at this rate, it would be bad for him. During the regular season, DeRozan was assisted on just 21.8% of his baskets as he loves creating his own shot. As a result, Lowry assists on just 8.3% of DeRozan’s buckets.

With a tighter rotation, there aren’t many options outside of these four players. Valanciunas is on the bench and he only played 22 minutes last game. P.J. Tucker remains in the high 20s, but he hasn’t been producing many fantasy points with his time on the court, he had a blank stat sheet outside of one rebound in Game 4.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $7,500 1.05 37.4 -4.2 39.4 -3.2 27.3% 0.1% 16 -0.73
DeMar DeRozan $9,000 $8,300 1.12 35.4 0.1 39.6 -2.5 34.2% 1.9% 7 -0.79
Norman Powell $3,100 $3,800 0.76 18.0 -2.9 13.6 -0.9 21.0% -1.9% 10 0.54
DeMarre Carroll $3,400 $2,800 0.66 26.1 -5.8 17.2 -8.5 15.3% -1.0% 7 1.49
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $6,200 0.89 30.7 -0.7 27.2 -9.0 20.1% -2.4% 15 -0.53
Jonas Valanciunas $5,400 $4,300 1.00 25.8 -1.9 25.8 -2.3 18.7% -0.5% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Atlanta Hawks
Article Image Vegas Total 211.5 Article Image Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -2.53 -1.35 2.66 3.29 2.92 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

The Wizards got worked by the Hawks last game, they were down by 18 by the end of the first quarter and never really made it close. As a result, everyone played limited minutes and had underwhelming fantasy performances. Sometimes teams just don’t show up. Outside of John Wall, the Wizards shot 35.1% from the field and 21.4% from three. That isn’t going to be a normal occurrence, even though the Hawks held opponents to the fifth-lowest shooting percentage in the regular season (44.4%). They weren’t great defending three-pointers though, they ranked 16th (35.7%). That should help Bradley Beal, who was ice cold, going 0-for-6 from deep in Game 3. For the series he’s shooting 22.2% from three, but considering he converted 40.4% during the regular season, we should see some positive regression.

Unlike Beal, John Wall has hit 71.4% of his seven three pointers (five) in this series, but he was most impressive when driving to the basket in Game 3. He was 5-for-5 from within five feet of the hoop, despite the Hawks boasting the best interior defense in the league after the break, as they held opponents to a 57.2% field goal percentage in the area. Over the course of the series, he’s completing 60% of his attempts and he’s sixth in the playoffs in drives per game (12.7). He only had seven assists last game, but that was due to his limited playing time and poor shooting from his teammates. He still managed a 48.8% assist rate in the game and he has a 49.6% rate in the series, a 2.7% improvement over his already impressive regular season rate. The Hawks tend to give up a bunch of assists, they surrendered 25.0 per game after the break with was the seventh-most in the league. Wall will continue to deliver in the category. He’s also averaging 31.0 points on 18.7 FGAs per game. That seems a bit unsustainable. His field goal percentage of 55.4% is well above the 45.1% he posted during the regular season, and, as mentioned, Atlanta did keep opponents to a relatively low FG%. He’s been successful getting to the line, earning 10.3 FTAs per game. He’s been aided by the way he’s attacking the basket, but the Hawks had the fourth-best free three attempt rate in the regular season (23.2%), so they could do better. More than likely, we’ll need him to shoot more in order to maintain his scoring pace. On the positive side, he averaged 22.0 FGAs in the first two games of the series, and they’re playing at a very fast pace. While Steph Curry could arguably have a higher ceiling if Durant is ruled out, Wall offers a higher median projection in either scenario.

Markieff Morris got in foul trouble for the second game in a row as his beef with Paul Millsap eats up and he called Millsap a crybaby after the game. He had four fouls in the first game too, although he managed to stay on the court for 38 minutes. This seems to be a legitimate issue for him and presents added risk in this series. He may hate Millsap too much to be able to stop himself. If he can manage to stay on the court, he’s an interesting target as his price has dropped below $6k. He’s managed at lleast two blocks in all three games, despite his limitations, and he’s had six or more rebounds in borth games he played at least 29 minutes. He’s also averaged 16.5 FGAs in those two games, a nice bump above his average of 11.7. He might be more of a tournament play at this points, but he’s brought a certain level of intensity to this series, which has aided him on the defensive end with his blocking and on the offensive end with an enhanced eagerness to shoot the ball.

Marcin Gortat has taken double-digit FGAs in both games he’s played above 30 minutes and he pulled down at least eight rebounds in all three outings so far. His big game happened when Morris was limited to 20 minutes, but he still has some upside relative to his price as Ian Mahinmi remains sidelined and Gortat will play into the 30s minute-wise. During the regular season he returned a pretty consistent 0.85 FD ppm rate and he’s much cheaper than Greg Monroe on FD. He’s aided in this matchup by the Hawks playing Dwight Howard for 25.2 minutes per game as he’s the best rebounder in the series. Still, there are more options at center on DraftKings, which makes him less appealing.

Washington’s bench came alive a little in Game 3, primarily due to the blowout. Bojan Bogdanovic and Kelly Oubre were both helped out by Otto Porter’s neck injury as it held the starter to 24 minutes. He should be good to go tonight though, and he should play into the low-30s, which limits the fantasy value of Bojan and Oubre. As for Porter, he’s been underwhelming in this series. He got in foul trouble in Game 2, which also limited his playing time. When he’s been on the court, he’s had a low usage rate of 12.4%, 3.8% below his season average. At this point, he doesn’t seem like a great fantasy target, but he remains in consideration for tournaments at his price. He can get hot from three at any point, and he had 12 double-doubles this season. The concern is all but one of those games were when he receive at least 33 minutes, and nine came with at least 37 minutes, and he will probably be between 30-32 tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,200 $10,200 1.24 36.4 -2.1 45.3 -3.5 34.8% 0.3% 24 -2.53
Bradley Beal $7,500 $7,400 0.94 34.9 0.6 32.9 1.9 26.4% -0.7% 25 -1.35
Otto Porter $4,800 $4,900 0.82 32.6 -11.8 26.7 -8.2 14.8% 3.6% 28 2.66
Markieff Morris $5,700 $5,600 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -0.8 19.8% 4.3% 8 3.29
Marcin Gortat $5,600 $5,800 0.85 31.2 -5.1 26.4 -2.8 14.7% 0.1% 7 2.92
Kelly Oubre $3,200 $3,600 0.61 20.3 9.9 12.4 8.8 13.9% 1.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat, Otto Porter

Atlanta Hawks

The beef is getting good between Paul Millsap and Markieff Morris. Millsap is winning at this point, he’s put up consecutive games with 51 DK points or more. He went off in Game 3, scoring 29 points, grabbing 14 boards, and contributing five assists on a usage rate of 33.5%. It’s also the second game in a row he commanded usage above 30%. Considered he was around 25.4% in the regular season, this is impressive, and it’s becoming abundantly clear this team will run through him and Dennis Schroder. The point guard had a usage of 37.3% last game and scored 27 points while adding nine assists on a 48.5% assist rate. Across the three games, that rate has been 44.4%, 8.9% above his average. He’s also taken 19.7 FGAs per game, an increase of 4.3 over the regular season. He’s been aggressive, taking 13.0 drives per game, a mark good for fifth in the playoffs, and he’s been very effective with a 66.7% FG% on those attempts, which is the best rate of among players who have averaged at least 9.0 drives this postseason. This adds up as Washington has a weak interior defense, they allowed the tenth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket after the break (62.5%). The problem with Schroder is his current salary, particularly on FanDuel ($8,500). It’s going to be hard for him to beat that and some of the best point guards in the game are available tonight. He has a better price on DK ($7,800), but he’ll run into a similar problem with selection there.

It seems reasonable to expect Schroder and Millsap to continue to run the offense as they’ve found success with that approach and Dwight Howard is only playing 25.2 minutes per game. When Howard was off the floor during the regular season, Millsap and Schroder experienced increases of 4.35 and 5.03 DK points on their per-36 paces, respectively. Howard’s role in the rotation makes him a very risky fantasy gamble. While he’s managed to average 10.7 rebounds, he’s taking just 5.0 FGAs per game. With so few centers available, he may be a good option on FanDuel, but on DK he’s probably best for GPPs only.

Atlanta’s approach to offense has a negative impact on Tim Hardaway Jr., Taurean Prince, and Kent Bazemore. Hardaway has been shooting poorly, making 29.4% of his shots. Although we can expect better, he’s only managing to take 11.3 shots per game, 0.2 below his average, despite an extra 3.3 minutes per game. As a result, his usage has dropped 2.6% to 21.2%. He’s a pretty scoring dependent player, so he’ll need more opportunities than that to be a strong fantasy asset. Prince had a nice outing in Game 3, scoring 16 on his way to 24 DK points, but he did that on 70.0% shooting. He’s averaging 4.7 rebounds in this series, but contributing no assists (he has one total) or other peripherals (one steal). Although the selection isn’t great at small forward, he isn’t really reliable enough for cash, a Kent Bazemore may offer a higher ceiling for tournaments, even in though he’s only playing 24.7 minutes per game. Bazemore has only averaged 8.3 FGAs per game, but he’s a streaky shooter who can get hot. He’s also returning more rebounds (3.7) and assists (2.7) than starter Tim Hardaway.

No one else on the team is averaging more than 18.2 minutes per game, which means the rest of the bench is pretty unappealing in fantasy.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $8,500 $7,800 0.95 31.5 -2.7 30.0 -3.3 30.3% -7.1% 9 -0.83
Tim Hardaway $5,100 $5,000 0.80 27.3 4.2 21.8 9.8 22.4% -0.8% 16 -0.94
Taurean Prince $4,300 $4,400 0.70 16.6 11.1 11.7 5.0 17.0% 0.0% 17 0.03
Paul Millsap $8,400 $8,000 1.03 34.0 -4.7 35.0 -3.2 24.9% 4.1% 22 1.54
Dwight Howard $6,600 $6,100 1.10 29.7 -6.5 32.7 -5.7 18.6% 6.1% 20 1.33
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,200 0.76 26.9 -4.6 20.5 1.4 20.6% 0.7% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder, Dwight Howard (FD, DK GPP), Tim Hardaway (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Taurean Prince (GPP)

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Portland Trail Blazers
Article Image Vegas Total 219.5 Article Image Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread -7.0 Vegas Spread 7.0
Team Total 113.3 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 6 11 25 18 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.39 -1.93 -0.28 0.33 1.30 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

Kevin Durant is once again questionable for tonight’s game. With Golden State up 3-0, there isn’t much reason to rush him back if there’s even a remote chance he could do further damage. If he plays, he could be limited, which makes him risky. At the same time, he would hurt Stephen Curry’s appeal as Curry’s usage and production would likely decrease while they’re on the floor together.

If Durant doesn’t go Curry will be looking like a great buy, even at his increase price. Portland is 12th in defensive rating this postseason (111.0) and this series has been played at the fastest pace (105.87). Curry scored 34 points in Game 3 on 25 shots and he contributed eight assists. He should be a scoring machine again if Durant is absent.

Klay Thompson was able to launch 21 times, but only made eight of his attempts for a 38.1% field goal percentage. He led the team with 41 minutes and could push for a huge workload again tonight. When Durant was off the floor during the regular season, his usage increased by 3.7% to 31.6% and he produced an extra 4.06 FD points every 36 minutes, bringing his pace to 36.91. His price is a bit tough on FanDuel, but he’s $1,000 less on DK while Bradley Beal and C.J. McCollum are $900 and $1,100 more expensive on the site. That makes Thompson a nice bargain. Naturally, Draymond Green’s usage rate also increased, but not as dramatically, just 1.5%. He was right behind Thompson last night with 40 minutes on the court and turned it into 43.1 FD points. He’s been a monster on defense, averaging 4.7 blocks and 2.0 steals per game. He’s also contributing 8.7 assists, 10.7 rebounds, and 11.7 points per game. He’ll be strong play whether Durant suits up or not as he’s not as reliant on scoring.

Patrick McCaw played well in place of Durant, scoring 11 points while contributing five rebounds and five assists. He ended with 32.5 FD points after earning 8.0 from three steals and a block. While we can’t expect that type of production each game, he has managed at least nine points and five rebounds in each of his starts this series and earned 29+ minutes. He’ll be in play as a value tournament option if he gets another start, but bear in mind his per-36 pace during the season when Durant was off the floor was just 20.51 and he’s not expected to play 36 tonight. Andre Iguodala is likely the better option. He earned 36 minutes off the bench in game three and he’s produced 28.9 and 29 FD points in the past two games. That’s right on par with his regular season per-36 pace of 29.04 when Durant is off the floor. He’s a great points-per-dollar option tonight.

Lastly, JaVale McGee has been huge these past two games. Despite averaging roughly 14.5 minutes per game, he’s scored 14 or more points in each and pulled down at least four rebounds. He’s also made 13-of-15 shot attempts and blocked four shots last game. He’s a per-minute beast, who averaged 1.29 FD ppm when Durant was off the floor this season while boasting a 24.0% usage rate. He may earn a few extra minutes tonight with his recent performance, which makes him an intriguing tournament value option, especially considering the limited selection of centers on FanDuel.

Note: Below plays are under the assumption Durant rests tonight. As mentioned above, if he ends up playing, he would have a notable negative effect on Curry’s and Thompson’s per-minute production, and he would also likely limit Iguodala’s playing time.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,300 $9,600 1.25 33.4 -2.5 41.6 5.5 31.3% 3.6% 10 -1.39
Klay Thompson $7,500 $6,500 0.91 34.0 -3.3 30.9 4.0 24.6% 4.4% 6 -1.93
Kevin Durant $10,400 $9,200 1.36 33.4 -3.2 45.5 -4.4 28.0% -1.7% 11 -0.28
Draymond Green $8,800 $8,400 1.06 32.5 -7.9 34.6 -13.0 19.3% 1.6% 25 0.33
Zaza Pachulia $3,900 $2,600 0.96 18.1 1.2 17.4 -2.2 15.7% -2.3% 18 1.30
Andre Iguodala $5,600 $5,200 0.75 26.3 -3.9 19.7 -0.4 13.2% 4.0% 11 N/A
Javale McGee $4,100 $3,700 1.24 9.6 4.9 11.9 7.3 21.7% -1.9% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson (DK), Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (FD), Patrick McCaw (GPP), JaVale McGee (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers

Not surprisingly, Portland has been carried by C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard this series, both of whom have usage rates above 30%. In Game 3, Lillard scored 31 points while McCollum led the way with 32. They’re going to continue to come out firing in Game 4 with elimination at stake. There’s little doubt they’ll leave everything on the floor tonight in front of a home crowd. Lillard is a safer bet as McCollum is more of an inconsistent shooter.

The bigger problem with those two will be peripherals. While both improved their rebounding in this series above their season averages, their assists are down. McCollum’s has gone from 3.6 to 1.0 and Lillard’s has declined from 5.9 to 2.3. As a team, Portland has averaged a measly 16.3 assists, which is the second-fewest in the postseason, despite the quick pace of their games. It certainly doesn’t help that the team is shooting 39.9% from the field, but another factor has been Evan Turner’s increased playing time. Turner has averaged 34.4 minutes per night, joining McCollum and Lillard as the only guys earning more than 28 on average. His assist rate was a solid 18.4% during the season and it’s climbed even further to 21.7% in the playoffs, which leads the team. He’s averaging 4.7 in this series to go along with his 7.0 rebounds and 11.3 points. With the Trail Blazers going small and operating with Jusuf Nurkic, all three of these guys have been able to do better on the glass. Overall, Turner is a good deal across the industry. His per-36 pace during the season with Lillard and McCollum on the floor and Nurkic off was 25.29 FD points and he could push past the 36-minute mark. In Game 3 for example, he played 40 minutes and turned them into 36.1 FD points.

Moe Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Noah Vonleh all make for potential tournament targets. Harkless will have to rely on scoring, and he’s inconsistent. With the trio of Lillard, McCollum, and Turner leading the team, it’s tough to trust him here. Aminu managed to take 13 shots last game even with Nurkic playing. He earned 31 minutes, his most of the series, as the Trail Blazers opted to go bigger than in the previous two outings. That cost Harkless time on the floor, not Turner, as he only played 20 minutes. Now that Nurkic is out, they’ll likely go to small lineups. However, Aminu could still cut into Harkless’ playing time. Over the past four weeks, Aminu has turned in 0.78 FD ppm, which is a solid figure. He makes more sense on DK, where he’s a power forward, as there aren’t many value options available there. On FD he’s inexplicably more than Evan Turner, so there doesn’t seem to be much reason to pay more for Aminu. Vonleh is also a power forward on DK and he’ll like move into the starting lineup again. He’s only averaged 22.6 minutes per game this series though. It’s possible he picks up some extra time as he did in Game 3, when he was on the court for 25 minutes, but it’s a gamble. He’s averaged 0.72 FD ppm over the past four weeks on a 11.0% usage rate. On the bright side, that’s been higher in the playoffs at 14.1%.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $9,000 1.16 35.9 1.6 41.5 6.3 32.7% 3.7% 3 0.24
C.J. McCollum $8,200 $7,600 0.95 34.9 -0.1 33.3 -6.1 27.7% 0.3% 14 -0.91
Evan Turner $4,900 $5,500 0.76 25.5 0.2 19.3 1.3 20.0% 1.6% 5 1.35
Maurice Harkless $4,600 $4,800 0.69 28.9 -0.5 19.8 -5.7 14.7% -4.7% 21 5.08
Noah Vonleh $3,200 $4,000 0.70 17.1 12.9 11.9 10.0 12.6% -2.5% 12 3.61
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,400 $4,600 0.75 29.1 2.5 21.9 -1.0 15.2% -0.1% 5 N/A
Allen Crabbe $4,000 $3,300 0.60 28.5 0.6 17.2 11.0 14.7% 0.7% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Evan Turner

Secondary Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu (DK GPP), Noah Vonleh (GPP), Moe Harkless (GPP)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).