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NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 29th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-29 23:17:08

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Sacramento Kings
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 227.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 227.5
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 117.5 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 99.30 Team Pace 102.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 25 30 23 29 20 Opp. Season 21 23 8 10 4
Last 3 Weeks 22 28 29 27 9 Last 3 Weeks 21 16 8 26 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 41-18 — Road: 16-10 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder lost a heartbreaker against the Warriors on Saturday night. It reminded me of the old school Mortal Kombat video games. Stephen Curry kept slicing the Thunder and eventually got to the screen where it says “FINISH HIM.” Curry ripped out the heart of Thunder fans by calmly knocking down a 35-footer at the buzzer in overtime. Oklahoma City will look to bounce back tonight against the Kings. The Thunder are projected to score 117.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board.

Am I the only one that does the Carlton dance every time I see the Kings on the schedule? They play at the league’s fastest pace and they own the league’s worst defense. It is a beautiful combination. The best part is that the Thunder are only listed as 7.5-point favorites, so we can project their starters to see a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$11,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 36.2 1.6 37.2 2.6
FPPG (FD) 49.3 53.0 3.7 53.4 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 28.8 28.2 -0.6 29.7 0.9

Westbrook was nearly the hero the other night against the Warriors. Kevin Durant fouled out right before the end of regulation and Westbrook had a strong effort in overtime. Unfortunately, he was outdone by Stephen Curry. Westbrook is my favorite play on the board tonight, as he gets to face the NBA’s worst defensive team. This may not exactly be a hot take, but I’m predicting another triple-double for Westbrook tonight.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 36.8 0.7 37.1 1.0
FPPG (FD) 45.9 48.7 2.8 49.1 3.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 27.8 2.0 27.6 1.9

I typically like to start my lineups with Westbrook or Durant, but I don’t mind using them both tonight. The matchup is favorable enough that they could both reach value, especially if the game goes as planned. The Thunder are only 7.5-point favorites. Durant has a high floor and a high ceiling and he draws a better matchup than the other expensive small forward options.

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 34.1 1.3 35.7 2.9
FPPG (FD) 26.1 28.1 2.1 29.1 3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 14.4 -0.2 14.8 0.2

Does anyone ever feel confident rostering Ibaka? That was a rhetorical question, as the answer is obviously NO. He has been playing well recently though, averaging 29.1 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes in his last five games. His price is still cheap and the matchup is in his favor.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 24-33 — Home: 14-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Kings have lost six of their last ten games and are now 24-33 overall. They draw a tough matchup against the Thunder tonight at home, but it should be a great game for both offenses. The Kings are projected to score 110 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board and 2.9 points above their scoring average.

The Thunder are an easy team to predict defensively. While they are ranked around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency, their DvP rankings make my job easy. The Thunder defend small forwards, power forwards, and centers well, while they struggle to defend opposing backcourts. Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay are both questionable for tonight’s game. If they are unable to suit up, Darren Collison and Omri Casspi would likely slide into the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 35.2 0.1 36.1 1.0
FPPG (FD) 38.0 41.2 3.3 45.7 7.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 17.5 0.3 17.4 0.1

Whoever starts at point guard for the Kings tonight will be an elite play, whether that is Rondo or Darren Collison. Russell Westbrook gets a lot of steals, but he is not a shut down defender. The Thunder have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$10,700
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.36 FP/Min:1.49
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 36.6 2.1 37.4 2.9
FPPG (FD) 47.1 49.5 2.4 53.6 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 29.1 28.3 -0.8 28.9 -0.2

Anytime Cousins is on the schedule, he should be on your radar in tournaments. He has as much upside as any player in the entire NBA. Tonight is a good night to fade him in cash games though. He draws a difficult matchup against the Thunder and there are a number of superstars in better spots. However, if we know that Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay are going to be out, Cousins becomes a top play in all league formats.

Rudy Gay
rudy-gay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 31.9 -1.9 37.3 3.5
FPPG (FD) 30.7 29.7 -1.0 31.9 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 19.1 18.9 -0.3 18.1 -1.1

Gay has played well over his last five games, averaging 31.9 fantasy points in 37.3 minutes per game. He’ll put up a dud every now and then, but he’s a safe bet to play 35+ minutes tonight against the Thunder. His price seems a little cheap, especially on DraftKings ($6,600). If Gay is forced to miss tonight’s game, Omri Casspi would be worth a look in his absence.

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Los Angeles Clippers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 209.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 111.3
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 98.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 4 9 9 7 19 Opp. Season 26 19 21 20 23
Last 3 Weeks 5 2 4 19 17 Last 3 Weeks 11 20 21 16 12

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 17-42 — Road: 6-20 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nets have actually been playing some good ball recently, winning five of their last ten games. They run into the buzz saw that is the Clippers tonight though, and they are listed as 13-point underdogs. The Nets are only projected to score 98.3 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board. Brooklyn also has the fourth lowest projected point differential.

The Clippers have quietly become a top ten defensive team this season. They are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets have been an easy team to avoid for most of the season and given their difficult matchup on the road, I will have very limited exposure to them tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE – The Nets have a low team total and are tied with the Sixers as the largest underdogs on the board tonight.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 34.7 1.0 34.6 0.9
FPPG (FD) 35.7 35.8 0.1 41.3 5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.6 21.9 -0.7 23.4 0.8

Lopez has been in great form recently, averaging 41.3 fantasy points over his last five games. DeAndre Jordan is often known for his shot blocking, but he is not a great low-post defender. On the season, the Clippers are ranked 19th against centers, which is easily their lowest DvP ranking. The once concern with Lopez is his playing time in a potential blowout.

Bojan Bogdanovic
bojan-bogdanovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$4,100
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.56 FP/Min:0.61
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.1 23.7 -2.4 25.4 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 14.6 14.7 0.2 14.7 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 17.4 3.0 18.0 3.6

Bogdanovic should draw another start at small forward tonight. He played well in his first start after the Nets released Joe Johnson, but he got into early foul trouble the other night against the Jazz. He provides great upside at his price point and could end up playing 30+ minutes if he is shooting the ball well.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 38-20 — Home: 19-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have won six of their last ten games and are now 38-20 overall. If the season ended today, they would be hosting a first-round playoff series. The Clippers are huge favorites tonight at home against the Nets. They are projected to score 111.3 points, which is the second highest team total and 6.3 points above their scoring average.

The Nets are a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 17th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. The Clippers’ offense should be able to score at will in this matchup, but I am worried about the potential blowout. Their starters could end up sitting the entire fourth quarter. Paul Pierce is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Jeff Green is listed as the projected starter, but he could be heading back to the bench. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are both intriguing targets at shooting guard.

Elite Plays

NONE – Given the spread, the Clippers make terrific tournament plays tonight. However, they are risky cash game options given the potential for this one to turn into a blowout.

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$9,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.33
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 36.3 3.2 34.0 0.9
FPPG (FD) 40.9 47.7 6.8 51.0 10.2
TO-Adj. Usage 24.6 25.2 0.6 25.9 1.2

If this game goes as planned, Paul is going to have to be incredibly efficient to reach value. For me, Russell Westbrook is the clear choice for cash games, while Paul and John Wall make better GPP plays. Paul has been in terrific form recently, averaging 47.7 fantasy points over his last ten games.

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$7,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 36.4 2.5 34.2 0.3
FPPG (FD) 35.2 38.7 3.5 35.7 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 11.9 13.0 1.2 12.3 0.4

Jordan has taken advantage of his increased role with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. Over his last ten games, Jordan is averaging 38.7 fantasy points in 36.4 minutes per contest. He draws a nice matchup tonight against the Nets, but he could end up sitting out the fourth quarter in a potential blowout.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious