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NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-02 14:07:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Cleveland Cavaliers
indiananba Vegas Total 206.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 107.5
Team Pace 99.50 Team Pace 95.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 20 6 7 2 2 Opp. Season 10 17 4 13 14
Last 3 Weeks 28 3 9 1 11 Last 3 Weeks 24 19 19 15 3

Indiana Pacers

Record: 31-28 — Road: 13-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have won five of their last ten games, but are only 13-17 on the road this season. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on a Cavaliers’ team that is looking to get back on track after losing three of their last four games. The Pacers are listed as 8.5-point underdogs in a game that should be played at an average pace. Against Cleveland’s stout defense, it is no surprise that the Pacers are projected to score 3.4 points less than their scoring average.

The Cavaliers are typically a team that we try to avoid targeting players against in daily fantasy basketball. They play at a below-average pace and are ranked eighth or better in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. Paul George draws a difficult matchup on both ends of the floor (LeBron James), so the Pacers may need someone else to step up tonight. C.J. Miles is expected to miss another game, but his absence doesn’t make a big impact in fantasy production.

Elite Plays

NONE – The Pacers have the third lowest team total on the board and the Cavaliers are ranked seventh or better in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers this season.

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 34.9 -0.5 35.9 0.5
FPPG (FD) 38.6 40.9 2.3 39.7 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 25.1 26.7 1.6 27.7 2.6

George has played well since the All-Star break. Even with his dud in last night’s game, he is still averaging 39.7 fantasy points in his last five games. While I don’t love the matchup against LeBron James, it should help lower his ownership in tournaments tonight. George has had decent success against the Cavaliers, averaging 21 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in their last two meetings.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 34.0 -1.1 33.4 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 24.2 24.9 0.8 23.5 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.3 1.1 15.0 0.8

Hill is going to be a popular pick in columns and podcasts today. Everyone is going to point to his 35 fantasy point outing against them a few weeks back. While I don’t mind Hill as a play, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. Hill should be a safe bet for minutes in the mid-30s, but he has a low TO-adjusted usage rate (14.2) for a point guard.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 41-17 — Home: 24-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have lost three of their last four games and now hold a slim two game lead over the Raptors in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland should be able to get back to their winning ways tonight, as they are large favorites against the Pacers at home. They are projected to score 107.5 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board and 4.6 points above their scoring average.

The Pacers have been better defensively than most give them credit for. Despite playing up in pace, Indiana is still ranked inside the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The biggest issue with the Cavaliers recently has been inconsistency. Their three superstars have taken turns posting big outings, which makes it difficult to predict on a nightly basis.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.32
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.9 0.0 36.4 0.5
FPPG (FD) 44.2 45.0 0.7 41.5 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.8 0.4 25.4 -2.0

James should be playing on fresh legs tonight, after getting yesterday’s game off against the Wizards to rest. When it comes to the big three in Cleveland, he is by far the most consistent. He is averaging 45 fantasy points over his last ten games and his floor over the last couple of months has been around 40 fantasy points. The production should be there tonight in an uptempo game against the Pacers.

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$7,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 28.5 -3.5 31.6 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 32.7 28.2 -4.5 31.3 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.8 2.1 23.1 3.3

Love will not find his way into my cash game lineups, but I will have some exposure to him in tournaments. While he is inconsistent, he has shown that he has a high ceiling, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He also draws an appealing matchup against the Pacers, who have been average at best against opposing frontcourts.

Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Washington Wizards
philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 111.3
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 24 26 8 13 Opp. Season 22 16 28 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 7 11 16 6 18 Last 3 Weeks 20 17 20 28 29

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-51 — Road: 3-28 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers made a game out of it last night, but still lost by 14 against the Magic. They have a quick turnaround tonight and will be playing in the tail end of a back-to-back against the Wizards. The Sixers are 13-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at only 98.3 points.

The Wizards have been an exploitable matchup this season, ranking 18th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. Washington has been better over the last three weeks though, ranking 11th or better against point guards, shooting guards, and power forwards. With a potential blowout in the second half of a back-to-back, I would tread lightly with the Sixers tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE – The Sixers have a low team total, they are playing their second road game in as many nights, and their starters have seen inconsistent minutes recently.

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington
robert-covington-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 27.2 0.3 27.2 0.3
FPPG (FD) 22.4 21.7 -0.7 21.4 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 15.3 -0.8 14.4 -1.8

Covington is really the only Sixers’ player on my radar tonight. He is cheap enough that we can feel fine using him, even if he only ends up playing 28-30 minutes. He has been in decent form recently, averaging 21.4 fantasy points over his last five games. Covington also draws a nice matchup against a Wizards’ defense that has really struggled against wings this season.

Washington Wizards

Record: 28-30 — Home: 15-16 — Last 10: 6-4

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games, including a win over the Cavaliers. Granted, LeBron James was given the day off to rest, but it was still a nice win for a team that is looking to make a playoff push. The Wizards should be able to pick up another win tonight at home. They are the largest favorites on the board and they have their team total set at 111.3 points, which is 8.5 points above their scoring average.

The Sixers are always one of our favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at an above-average pace (100.1) and are ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main question here is whether or not Philadelphia will be able to keep this game close. With such a high spread, the Wizards’ starters could certainly end up spending the fourth quarter of this game on the bench.

Elite Plays

NONE – While the Wizards’ offense is in a great spot overall, I am worried about a potential blowout. For that reason, the Sixers make risky cash game options, but excellent GPP plays.

Secondary Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.8 0.0 33.0 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 42.0 44.0 2.0 40.8 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 24.6 24.7 0.1 24.6 0.0

In a vacuum, Wall is a borderline elite play tonight. In his two meetings against the Sixers this season, he has averaged over 50 fantasy points per game. However, that was in an average of 36 minutes and it’s hard to project him to play more than 30-32 tonight with a 13-point spread. Wall is still one of my favorite tournament plays, but for cash games I would find the extra cap room to get up to Russell Westbrook.

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.8 28.5 -2.3 28.0 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 30.2 32.1 1.9 30.9 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.4 0.7 16.2 0.5

I’ve mentioned in the last few Grind Downs that I am worried about Gortat moving forward. His production has been up over his last ten games, but it hasn’t been from an increase in playing time, he has just been more efficient. In fact, he is averaging nearly three minutes less per game over his last five outings. The matchup is obviously in his favor tonight, but if he only ends up playing 25 minutes in a blowout, he will need a near perfect game to reach value.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 30.0 -0.6 26.3 -4.3
FPPG (FD) 24.0 23.1 -0.9 20.7 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 12.7 -1.7 12.3 -2.0

Porter is another player whose minutes are trending in the wrong direction. Over his last five games, his minutes, fantasy production, and usage rate are all down. That’s not a great combination for his fantasy appeal. The good news is that his price has come down and that he draws one of the best matchups on the board.

Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Utah Jazz Boston Celtics
utahnba Vegas Total 202.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 93.30 Team Pace 101.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 8 19 26 27 Opp. Season 7 2 3 1 3
Last 3 Weeks 14 14 15 18 28 Last 3 Weeks 18 23 7 2 13

Utah Jazz

Record: 28-30 — Road: 9-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Jazz have won five of their last ten games and are now two below .500 on the season. Their biggest struggle has been on the road, as they currently sport a 9-18 record away from home. The Jazz are listed as 6-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics in Boston. Utah is only projected to score 98.3 points, which is the third lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential tonight.

The Celtics have been stout defensively this season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency. Their quick pace of play does allow us to target players against them, but they are at best an average matchup for fantasy production. The good news is that the Celtics have been predictable from a fantasy standpoint. They are one of the best teams at defending backcourts, yet they have consistently given up big outings to opposing frontcourts.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors
derrick-favors-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 33.5 1.1 35.2 2.8
FPPG (FD) 33.0 34.8 1.8 38.9 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 20.8 0.5 20.8 0.4

Favors seems to be a trendy play when he is on and one that everyone seems to overlook when his production is down. I’m interested to see what his ownership will look like tonight. Favors has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 38.9 fantasy points in over 35 minutes per contest. He draws a nice matchup against the Celtics and he put up 48 fantasy points against them a couple of weeks ago.

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert
rudy-gobert-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.2 34.0 0.8 33.5 0.3
FPPG (FD) 29.9 31.2 1.3 25.7 -4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 12.1 0.8 11.3 0.0

Gobert’s production is trending the opposite direction, but it hasn’t been from a decrease in playing time. We can still count on him to play minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against a beatable Celtics’ frontcourt. In their first meeting this season, Gobert finished with 11 points, 15 rebounds, and four blocks. Gobert is in play tonight, but he is far from a must play.

Shelvin Mack
shelvin-mack-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 10.3 20.1 9.8 27.4 17.1
FPPG (FD) 8.8 15.0 6.2 18.5 9.7
TO-Adj. Usage 23.9 20.9 -3.0 19.2 -4.7

Mack’s price has come up on DraftKings, but he is still priced at the bare minimum on FanDuel. Based on volume again, he deserves consideration at this price. Even though the matchup against the Celtics is less than ideal, Mack should see close to 30 minutes with a usage rate close to 20. At $3,500, he should at least be on your radar tonight.

Boston Celtics

Record: 35-25 — Home: 19-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and are now ten above .500 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Jazz in what will certainly be a pace-down game for Boston. The Celtics are projected to score 104.3 points here, but that is 1.8 points below their scoring average. They have the second lowest projected point differential on the board tonight.

The Jazz continue to dominate on the defensive end of the floor. They are now ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Utah is also ranked seventh or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor this season.

Elite Plays

NONE – We always try to avoid targeting players against the Jazz and that is not going to change tonight. Unless you can find a Celtics’ player that is priced at a steep discount, they can all be avoided in cash games.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$5,900
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.8 25.4 1.6 27.5 3.7
FPPG (FD) 26.1 31.8 5.7 32.0 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 20.6 1.9 19.1 0.5

Sullinger has been the main beneficiary of the Kelly Olynyk injury. Even though he is only averaging 27.5 minutes over his last five games, that is up considerably from his season average. During that stretch, he is averaging 32 fantasy points per contest. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup tonight, but he did manage to score 29.2 fantasy points in their last meeting.

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets Milwaukee Bucks
houstonnba Vegas Total 213.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 105.3
Team Pace 99.70 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Josh Smith Dwight Howard Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 8 26 25 23 11 Opp. Season 14 22 29 30 16
Last 3 Weeks 15 22 14 11 7 Last 3 Weeks 3 4 25 30 5

Houston Rockets

Record: 29-30 — Road: 13-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games and are now fighting for their playoff lives. If they aren’t careful, they could be on the outside looking in come April. Tonight the Rockets head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in what should be a fantasy goldmine. The Rockets are projected to score 107.8 points in this matchup, which is the fifth highest team total on the board and 2.3 points above their scoring average.

The Bucks have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.6 39.1 1.5 41.4 3.8
FPPG (FD) 46.3 52.8 6.5 52.5 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 28.8 1.2 29.1 1.6

Harden continues to be one of the best fantasy players on the planet. His style of play may not sit well with his teammates, but we certainly don’t mind him jacking up shots when he’s in our fantasy lineups. Harden is averaging 52.5 fantasy points over his last five games and he draws a solid matchup against the Bucks. In terms of superstar priority tonight, I’d rank him right behind Russell Westbrook.

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 35.0 2.4 35.8 3.2
FPPG (FD) 34.1 35.5 1.4 37.6 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 16.2 1.0 17.1 1.9

Howard continues to fly under the radar in DFS. I’m not sure if people just don’t like him or if he has burned too many bridges in the past. Either way, we should continue to take advantage of his low ownership. Howard is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board and he is cash game playable as well. The Bucks are ranked 20th in rebounding differential this season.

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza
trevor-ariza-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 37.2 2.3 38.6 3.7
FPPG (FD) 24.5 28.2 3.8 30.2 5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.4 -0.2 12.6 -1.0

Ariza has really played well over his last ten games, averaging 28.2 fantasy points in 37.2 minutes per contest. The reason that he is listed not an elite play tonight is his elevated price point. I have a hard time paying a premium for a player with such a low usage rate.

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 24-35 — Home: 16-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and will need a major push to have a chance at the playoffs. They are listed as 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets. The Bucks are projected to score 105.3 points, which is 6.7 points above their scoring average. Milwaukee has the third highest projected point differential of the 14 teams in action tonight. I should also point out that Milwaukee has picked up their pace of play recently, averaging 99.1 possessions per game.

The Rockets continue to struggle defensively, ranking 24th or worse in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. This is a situation where we can realistically target five different Bucks’ players. The fact that they will be playing short-handed only helps the other players’ fantasy appeal. The Bucks are expected to be without Jerryd Bayless, John Henson, Greivis Vasquez, and Steve Novak.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 36.7 1.8 37.4 2.5
FPPG (FD) 31.6 37.4 5.8 43.4 11.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.7 19.4 1.7 20.6 2.9

Giannis is expensive, but given his recent form and his matchup, he deserves consideration as an elite play in all league formats tonight. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 34.7 fantasy points in 39.4 minutes per contest. He also draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Rockets are ranked 29th against small forwards this season.

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.5 39.4 2.9 40.7 4.2
FPPG (FD) 29.6 34.7 5.1 35.6 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.7 1.9 20.4 0.6

Middleton has a similar floor and ceiling as Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet he is considerably cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t mind using them together, but slightly prefer Middleton if you only want to play one. He has also been in great form over his last ten games, averaging 34.7 fantasy points per contest.

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.9 37.0 7.1 40.1 10.2
FPPG (FD) 21.7 26.8 5.1 34.1 12.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 16.6 0.3 19.4 3.2

Parker finally had a subpar outing the other night against the Pistons. Even with that bad outing, he is still averaging 34.1 fantasy points over his last five games. He should see minutes in the high-30s tonight against the Rockets, who just so happen to be the worst team in the NBA at defending power forwards.

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe
greg-monroe-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.5 1.0 30.8 0.3
FPPG (FD) 33.5 34.0 0.6 31.8 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.8 -0.7 17.3 -3.1

Monroe is also worth a look tonight, although I see him as more of a tournament play. The fact that he still comes off the bench lowers his ownership, even though his minutes are actually up over his last ten games.

Michael Carter-Williams
michael-carter-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 29.6 -0.9 32.3 1.8
FPPG (FD) 27.2 25.3 -1.9 25.2 -2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.7 16.7 -1.0 16.7 -1.0

MCW has also seen a spike in minutes recently, even though he continues to come off the bench. When it comes to MCW, it really hinges on the availability of Jerryd Bayless. His splits are drastically different when Bayless is active.

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets
memphisnba Vegas Total 207.5 denvernba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes Zach Randolph JaMychal Green Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Will Barton Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 24 27 15 25 21 Opp. Season 9 5 14 11 1
Last 3 Weeks 12 8 23 25 25 Last 3 Weeks 10 21 2 7 6

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 34-24 — Road: 13-15 — Last 10: 6-4

Many expected the Grizzlies to wave the white flag once Marc Gasol was ruled out for the season, but they have shown some grit over the last few weeks. They have won six of their last ten games and are now ten above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in what should be one of the best games to target tonight. The Grizzlies are projected to score 105 points, which is six points above their scoring average.

The Nuggets are ranked tenth in rebounding differential, but that’s about all they have going for them defensively. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. It sounds like Tony Allen will miss another game tonight and he is without an official timetable to return. Brandan Wright hurt his knee the other night against the Suns. He will not play tonight and is without a timetable to return.

Elite Plays

Mike Conley
mike-conley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 31.8 0.3 32.3 0.8
FPPG (FD) 29.6 32.6 3.0 33.1 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 22.1 0.8 23.3 2.0

Conley has been terrific since Marc Gasol went down with his injury. On the season, he averages 0.94 fantasy points per minute, but is averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minutes in his last ten games. Given the fact that tonight’s spread is low, he could see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight.

Zach Randolph
zach-randolph-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 31.6 2.5 30.3 1.2
FPPG (FD) 26.5 30.9 4.4 28.3 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 21.5 1.5 21.5 1.5

Randolph has also seen a nice boost in production with Marc Gasol out of the lineup. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 30.9 fantasy points in 31.6 minutes per contest. My hope is that people will see his recent playing time and look to avoid him tonight. The only reason his minutes have been down is because the Grizzlies have been blowing teams out left and right. Z-Bo should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Nuggets.

Secondary Plays

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 29.7 2.8 33.5 6.6
FPPG (FD) 20.3 21.9 1.6 23.9 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 13.6 -0.4 14.0 0.0

Barnes is inconsistent, but we have seen the type of upside that he brings to the table. I like him more as a tournament play tonight, but do prefer him over Robert Covington and Otto Porter in cash games as well. Barnes should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight with Tony Allen out.

JaMychal Green
jamychal-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$4,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 15.3 19.5 4.2 22.8 7.5
FPPG (FD) 11.9 16.9 4.9 20.5 8.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 13.8 -0.3 14.8 0.7

Green should draw another start at center tonight with Brandan Wright out. While he doesn’t have huge minute upside, he will likely see around 25 minutes of action tonight against the Nuggets. He has really played well over his last five games, averaging 20.5 fantasy points in 22.8 minutes per contest.

Denver Nuggets

Record: 23-36 — Home: 11-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games, but are expected to be competitive tonight against the Grizzlies. Denver is listed as 2.5-point underdogs at home. They are projected to score 102.5 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board. The Nuggets also have the fifth lowest projected point differential.

It’s always easy to say, “the Grizzlies are a completely different team defensively without Marc Gasol While he was their defensive anchor, they have fared well without him. They are still ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. They are also ranked 14th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Danilo Gallinari is going to miss the next couple of weeks, after suffering an ankle injury. Will Barton stands to benefit the most in his absence.

Elite Plays

Will Barton
will-barton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.8 28.2 -0.6 31.6 2.8
FPPG (FD) 27.4 28.0 0.6 26.9 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.7 21.5 0.9 22.3 1.6

I’d be surprised if Barton ends up starting tonight. Earlier in the season when the Nuggets entire backcourt was injured, they still opted to bring him off the bench. Either way, Barton should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight with Danilo Gallinari out. It’s time to get back on the Barton bandwagon in all league formats.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic
nikola-jokic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.8 20.3 0.5 18.2 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 21.5 22.9 1.4 24.4 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.4 18.8 1.4 19.5 2.1

As I always say with Jokic, I don’t love using him in cash games, but he makes a strong tournament play. His range of possible outcomes is a bit too volatile for my liking in cash games, but we know the type of upside that he provides. He has scored at least 39 fantasy points in two of his last four games.

Gary Harris
gary-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 37.0 5.4 35.4 3.8
FPPG (FD) 19.1 21.7 2.7 22.9 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.6 13.1 -0.4 15.6 2.0

Harris may not have a high usage rate, but he could take on a bigger role in the offense while Danilo Gallinari is out. Harris could also see a small boost in minutes and could push for 40 tonight against the Grizzlies. He is a low-risk, medium reward shooting guard option in all league formats.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious