NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 3rd - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-03 20:02:00

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Minnesota at Denver

Vegas Line – Minnesota -5.5, 214 Over/Under
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Denver Proj. Starters – Brooks-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

Minnesota

Tonight’s Wolves/Nuggets game features the 2nd highest total of the night at 214 points. This game features two of the fastest paced teams in the league and it should stay close as the Nuggets are expected to get their PG Ty Lawson back. The Wolves have a terrific matchup tonight as the Nuggets are giving up 104.7 points per game which is the 3rd worst in the league. They are almost reaching the level of the Sixers and Lakers. Over the last 15 days, the Nuggets are ranked 19th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Nikola Pekovic made his return to the lineup the other night and he picked up right where he left off. Pek posted 20 points and 9 rebounds in 28 minutes of play. While the matchup for him tonight is solid, I think the Wolves are going to keep him around 30 minutes for the first few games back. Kevin Martin also made his return to the lineup and he also had a terrific game the other night. He played 34 minutes so he should be considered at full strength for tonight’s game and I really like the matchup for him.

Kevin Love – If you are paying up for a star player tonight, I think Love is the best option. He has a terrific matchup against this Nuggets defense that has struggled on the interior all season long. The Nuggets are an average rebounding team at best and Love should pound the glass on both ends of the floor. In 3 games against the Nuggets this season, Love is averaging 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists. I think he can top 50 FP’s in this one.

Ricky Rubio – The Nuggets are expected to have Ty Lawson back tonight, but he will not be at 100% and his conditioning is not going to be there. That bodes well for Rubio tonight in an uptempo game. Not only that, but Rubio has really played well against the Nuggets this season as he has averaged 9 points, 5 rebounds, 12 assists, and 4 steals per game. His price is depressed across the industry too.

Denver

The Nuggets are hoping to have Ty Lawson back for tonight’s game and they should be thrilled. The Nuggets offense has really struggled without their star PG. I’m not sure how many minutes Lawson is going to be able to provide though and he should be avoided until we know that he is back to playing his usual minutes. The Nuggets matchup against the Wolves is a good one. The Wolves like to push the pace as much as the Nuggets and they are giving up 101.6 points per game which is more than the league average. Neither team should struggle to score tonight.

As far as the fantasy options go, there are quite a few Nuggets in play, but none of them stand out as industry wide plays. Wilson Chandler has been struggling, but his $7k price tag on DS may be too good to pass up. Timofey Mozgov continues to start at Center and makes a solid punt play on a few sites as well. Randy Foye value takes a hit with Lawson back in the lineup; even though it’s a good matchup, I think he is over-priced thanks to his recent production. Finally, we have Kenneth Faried who has great home splits this season. He’s probably the best play on the Nuggets tonight, but his price is up to that mid-tier level.

L.A.Lakers at Portland

Vegas Line – Portland -12, 221 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Farmar-Meeks-Bazemore-Johnson-Gasol
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez

L.A.Lakers

It’s no coincidence that the game that features the highest total of the night is a game that the Lakers are playing in. The Lakers are in full tank mode, but they have been fairly competitive lately which helps the fantasy value of both teams. This game does have some blowout potential, but with a line this high, I’m not going to factor it in. The Lakers are projected to score 104 points tonight which should translate to some nice fantasy production.

The Lakers are really spreading the minutes out right now. We have Jordan Farmar, Jodie Meeks, Kent Bazemore, Kendall Marshall, and Marshon Brooks all seeing major playing at the PG, SG, and SF positions. Farmar makes an intriguing play as he is coming off of a huge game the other night. Wesley Johnson has his lock on the PF spot right now and has topped 34 FP’s in each of his last two games. I think he makes a great play again tonight as long as he can stay out of foul trouble against Aldridge.

Pau Gasol – Pau has topped 35 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and draws a solid matchup tonight against Robin Lopez. The Blazers have been below average defensively this season against Centers and Pau should have another game where he fills up all areas of the stat sheet. Pau is probably the most likely to sit in a blowout though so he does come with a little risk.

Kent Bazemore – Bazemore is playing all of the minutes he can handle right now and has averaged over 25 FP’s per game in his last 5. He should see 35+ minutes again tonight and he is still very cheap on DK, FD, and DS. He’s going to be one of the more popular value plays again tonight and for good reason. Don’t be afraid to take a few Lakers tonight.

Portland

The Blazers have hands down the best matchup on the board. The only problem is that this game could turn into a blowout. Even if it does, the starter’s are going to be the main reason for the blowout and they should still see a high level of production even if they sit out the entire 4th quarter. Plus, there is always the possibility that the Lakers keep this game close and the starter’s see their usual amount of playing time. Robin Lopez makes a solid play at Center and Nicolas Batum should continue his hot play. Wesley Matthews is also in a great spot. All five starters are in play here.

Damian Lillard – Lillard is going to be one of the higher owned PG’s tonight and he will be on most of my cash game lineups. I love taking PG’s in games that are expected to be high scoring because Lillard has the ball in his hands the majority of the game and he should have a nice game scoring as well as creating shots for his teammates.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge has a terrific matchup tonight against Johnson and the Lakers. The Blazers will look to exploit this matchup all night long. Aldridge played 30 minutes in his first game back and I expect him to see around that number again tonight regardless of the score. He has great upside in this matchup.

New Orleans at Sacramento

Vegas Line – Sacramento -3.5, 204.5 Over/Under
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Ajinca
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins

New Orleans

The final game of the night is also expected to be a fairly high scoring game and the Pelicans are actually one of my favorite teams to target. The Kings are giving up an average of 104.1 points per game which is the 4th most in the NBA. The Kings are also ranked 21st or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. The two starters that I am avoiding on the Pelicans are Brian Roberts and Alexis Ajinca. With Evans in the starting lineup, he is playing a lot of point which really hurts Roberts’ fantasy value. Ajinca will be locked up with Cousins which is never a great matchup. Eric Gordon makes a nice GPP play, but I think Evans is the much better play.

Anthony Davis – Davis is coming off of one of his worst games of the season. He only ended up playing 20 minutes in a blowout loss to the Clippers and it was a game that Davis got into foul trouble early and then never was able to get into rhythm. This is a terrific spot for a bounce back game and Davis’ price is depressed across the board. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite PF play on most DFS sites.

Tyreke Evans – Evans has quite a few things in his favor tonight. He has a great matchup against the Kings, he is facing his former team, and he has finally been inserted into the starting lineup. Evans is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight and I think we will see his price take a huge spike after tonight’s game. I’m predicting Evans to post 30+ FP’s tonight.

Sacramento

The Kings also have a favorable matchup. The Pelicans are giving up 101.7 points per game this season and are ranked 19th or worse against PG’s and Centers this season. While the Pelicans have defended SF’s well, that is thanks to Aminu who is no longer in the starting lineup. With Evans at SF, Rudy Gay should be in for another solid outing. Gay seems to have a floor of around 30 FP’s lately which is extremely solid for a player in his price range.

DeMarcus Cousins – In two games against the Pelicans this season, Cousins is averaging 21 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals per game. That roughly equates to an average of 52 FP’s per game. While it’s hard to count on Cousins to get 3 blocks and 3 steals tonight, I think he can have an even better game offensively. Look for Cousins to top 50 again tonight.

Isaiah Thomas – Thomas has turned into one of the safest fantasy plays on the board. He rarely ever has a bad game and seems to be a lock for 30+ FP’s every time he takes the floor. That’s the exact kind of production that I like to see out of players in my cash games. Keep taking IT2 in your cash games.