NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 16th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – Monday, 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -7.5, 223.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 223.5 |  | Vegas Total | 223.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 115.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 101.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | Opp. Season | 16 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.0 (2 of 4)
The Thunder were blown out by the Spurs in Game 1 of the second round. They finished off an epic comeback, beating the Spurs four time in the next five games to move on to the Western Conference Finals. Isn’t it crazy that when the Spurs win, they are a veteran team and when they lose, they are too old. We’ve been saying that for five or six years now. As a basketball fan, I was glad to see the Thunder pull it out because there may not be a better matchup to watch than the Thunder and Warriors. These are two of the most exciting teams in the NBA.
The Thunder open up Game 1 as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 223.5 points. This series should be a polar opposite of the Eastern Conference Finals, and my goal is going to be as much exposure to this series as possible. The Thunder employed some big lineups against the Spurs in the last series, playing Steven Adams and Enes Kanter together. It will be interesting to see what they in this series, as the Warriors can really make their opponents pay with their small ball approach. For Game 1, I will be avoiding both of the centers from Oklahoma City.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Russell Westbrook | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $11,300 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.36 | FP/Min: | 1.48 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.4 | 36.4 | 2.0 | 38.3 | 3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 48.8 | 49.6 | 0.8 | 51.0 | 2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 28.3 | 30.6 | 2.3 | 29.5 | 1.1 |
Who scores more fantasy points in this series – Westbrook or Curry?
I’m having a hard time with that question myself and my ultimate goal is to take both as often as possible. The two are going to trade off big games throughout the series, so if we can get exposure to both, we won’t have to try to predict which one is going to play better than the other each game. Westbrook averaged 47.4 fantasy points in their three meetings during the regular season and with his minutes way up in the postseason, he should be able to average 50+ fantasy points in this series.
| Kevin Durant | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $9,900 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.98 | FP/Min: | 1.24 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.8 | 39.7 | 3.9 | 42.9 | 7.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.4 | 39.0 | -7.4 | 45.8 | -0.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 26.1 | -0.2 | 26.7 | 0.4 |
There are too many superstars left in these two-game slates. Without a lot of value, we are going to make some difficult lineup decisions. We can’t afford to take Westbrook, Curry, Durant, and James. Durant was a monster against the Warriors during the regular season, averaging just over 60 fantasy points in their three meetings. I want to have at least some exposure to the Thunder, so I would recommend taking Durant at small forward if you are fading Westbrook. If you have Westbrook, you can easily pivot off of Durant to James.
| Serge Ibaka | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $5,100 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.71 | FP/Min: | 0.83 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.1 | 32.0 | -0.1 | 30.6 | -1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 25.4 | 22.7 | -2.7 | 16.3 | -9.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.8 | 10.8 | -4.0 | 9.0 | -5.8 |
The Thunder didn’t use Ibaka a whole lot against the Spurs, but I expect him to see a minutes boost in this series. He is a better matchup against Draymond Green and Game 1 presents a good opportunity to buy low on him. The bad series against San Antonio brought his price down to an affordable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the lack of power forward options, Ibaka is an elite play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
| Dion Waiters | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,800 | Salary: | $3,800 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.64 | FP/Min: | 0.73 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.6 | 24.7 | -2.9 | 24.6 | -3.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.7 | 15.7 | -1.0 | 17.8 | 1.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.2 | 14.0 | -1.2 | 14.2 | -1.0 |
I believe I have rostered Waiters one time this season. While I’m not a huge fan of using him in DFS, we are going to have to save some salary somewhere in afford to afford the superstars in this series. With both teams potentially playing small ball, Waiters could see a boost in minutes. I’m willing to take a shot on him at close to minimum salary.
Golden State Warriors
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 115.5 (1 of 4)
The Warriors took down the Blazers in five games, even though they were without their best player (and two time MVP) for three of the games. They now host the Thunder in what could potentially be the best playoff series that we have seen in years. Points should be scored in bunches, as these are two of the best offenses in basketball. The Warriors open up as 7.5-point favorites in Game 1 with a team total of 115.5 points. Andrew Bogut was able to do some drill work without any setbacks on Sunday, but he is listed as a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, Festus Ezeli would draw the start at center and immediately become an elite value play. Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes are both viable plays at small forward. Both should see 28-35 minutes per game in this series.
- Injury Watch:
Andrew Bogut (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Stephen Curry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $10,500 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.41 | FP/Min: | 1.88 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.2 | 27.9 | -6.3 | 36.5 | 2.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.9 | 39.2 | -8.7 | 54.2 | 6.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.8 | 30.3 | 2.4 | 32.5 | 4.6 |
If you haven’t seen the highlights from the meetings during the regular season, I highly recommend finding them online. Curry hit some ridiculous shots, including one close to half-court to beat the Thunder in overtime. In their three meetings, he averaged 52.5 fantasy points. Curry is coming off of two strong games against the Blazers and we know how successful point guards have been against the Thunder all season. I’d like to give a recommendation for one or the other, but I love Curry and Westbrook equally in Game 1.
| Klay Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,800 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.02 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.3 | 36.1 | 2.8 | 38.2 | 4.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 36.8 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 5.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 23.9 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
With Curry back in the lineup, Thompson’s usage went down in the final two games of the Blazers’ series. While that is a little bit of a concern at his price point, I much prefer him over DeMar DeRozan. Thompson has the better matchup of the two, as the pace of this series should also help create some open looks for Thompson. In their three meetings during the regular season, Thompson averaged 30.1 fantasy points per contest.
Secondary Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $10,400 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.23 | FP/Min: | 1.16 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.7 | 37.6 | 2.9 | 40.3 | 5.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 46.1 | 7.0 | 52.8 | 13.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 18.1 | 2.2 | 18.1 | 2.2 |
Green hurt his ankle in Game 5 against the Blazers, but he was able to return to the game and is fully expected to play in Game 1 against the Thunder. He has been a monster so far in the postseason, averaging 46.1 fantasy points in close to 38 minutes per contest. He draws his toughest matchup to date though, as Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams are both very good low post defenders. It’s not that Green is a bad play, but if I’m paying $10,000 for a player, I’d rather have it be Westbrook, Curry, Durant, or James.
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – Tuesday, 8:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -10.5, 202 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Patterson-Biyombo
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
| Toronto Raptors | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Patrick Patterson | Bismack Biyombo | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 11 | Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | |
Toronto Raptors
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.8 (4 of 4)
Is it just me, or is all that we hear about the Raptors negative these days? All anyone seems to be talking about is the struggles of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but guess what? They beat the Pacers and they beat the Heat. No one seems to be giving them a chance against the Cavaliers, even though they took two of the three games in the regular season. While I don’t expect Toronto to come out of the East, I do expect them to give the Cavaliers their toughest matchup to date. The Raptors have an elite defense that should help keep these games close. While I do like the Raptors to be competitive in this series, they lack fantasy appeal against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Raptors have by far the lowest team total on the board at only 95.8 points. Jonas Valanciunas is not expected to play in Game 1, which means Bismack Biyombo will draw another start at center. My plan is to fade DeMar DeRozan in the first game or two of this series; I prefer Klay Thompson at a similar price point.
- Injury Watch:
Jonas Valanciunas (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $8,500 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.90 | FP/Min: | 1.05 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.5 | 2.5 | 40.0 | 3.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 35.4 | -3.1 | 52.4 | 13.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 22.5 | -0.3 | 30.5 | 7.7 |
If the Raptors are going to have any chance at pulling off the upset in Game 1, they will need a monster performance from their point guard. Despite struggling at the start of the playoffs, he finished the last series strong, averaging 52.4 fantasy points in the final three games. He draws a nice matchup against Kyrie Irving, who has given up big fantasy outings to opposing point guards all season. The only reason why Lowry is a secondary play is the other options at his position – namely Westbrook and Curry.
| Bismack Biyombo | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,200 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.85 | FP/Min: | 0.87 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 22.0 | 22.7 | 0.7 | 37.3 | 15.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.4 | 19.4 | 1.0 | 30.7 | 12.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.1 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.8 |
Biyombo is a borderline elite play in Game 1, but he is no longer a value. His price is up over $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs 30+ fantasy points to reach value. He is certainly capable of that (30.7 fantasy points per game in his last three), but he draws a difficult matchup against Tristan Thompson and the Cavaliers. Cleveland is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA.
| DeMarre Carroll | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,600 | Salary: | $4,400 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.57 | FP/Min: | 0.69 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.2 | 31.2 | 1.0 | 28.3 | -1.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.8 | 17.8 | -3.0 | 16.1 | -4.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 11.8 | -4.0 | 10.3 | -5.5 |
Carroll should see all of the minutes that he can handle in this series. He is going to be tasked with defending LeBron James, who has been an unstoppable force so far in the postseason. Carroll may expend most of his energy on defense, but he should play 35+ minutes per game and he is priced affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
| Patrick Patterson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,200 | Salary: | $4,600 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.52 | FP/Min: | 0.56 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.6 | 29.3 | 3.7 | 36.9 | 11.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.3 | 15.2 | -0.1 | 22.3 | 7.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.9 | 10.7 | -0.2 | 11.6 | 0.7 |
With Jonas Valanciunas still out, the Raptors are going to ask Patterson to play close to 40 minutes again in Game 1. He finished the last series strong, averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games. The matchup against the Cavaliers isn’t great, but the minutes will be there. He is a viable punt option at power forward.
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.3 (3 of 4)
The Cavaliers cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have yet to lose a game and they had close to ten days of rest. Will rust be an issue in the first half? I can’t imagine so, as this is a veteran team led by LeBron James. They open up Game 1 as 10.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 106.3 points. While the Raptors do boast a top ten defense, the Cavaliers’ offense has been firing on all cylinders in the playoffs.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| LeBron James | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.22 | FP/Min: | 1.25 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.6 | 38.8 | 3.2 | 35.0 | -0.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 45.0 | 47.2 | 2.2 | 46.7 | 1.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 24.9 | -2.4 | 27.6 | 0.2 |
James has made everything look easy so far this postseason. He is averaging 47.2 fantasy points in just over 38 minutes per game. Given the fact that the Cavaliers have been involved in so many blowouts, his potential production in this series is much higher than that. Cleveland isn’t afraid to play him 42-43 minutes per game if necessary. It’s a tough choice between James and Durant at small forward. As I mentioned earlier, for me it comes down to who you roster at point guard because I’d like to use at least one of the two superstars from the Thunder.
| Kevin Love | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $8,400 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.08 | FP/Min: | 1.05 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 31.5 | 34.2 | 2.7 | 31.0 | -0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.4 | 37.1 | 4.7 | 39.1 | 6.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 22.8 | 2.9 | 26.2 | 6.2 |
Love has seen a huge minutes’ boost so far in the playoffs and that number is only going to go up if this series is competitive. He is averaging 34.2 minutes and 37.1 fantasy points per game. His usage rate is much higher as well. While Draymond Green is the better overall play at power forward, I have Love projected as the better play in a points per dollar sense. Going down to Love will also help afford some of the more expensive superstars in the slate.
| Tristan Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | $5,100 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.64 | FP/Min: | 0.77 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.7 | 28.8 | 1.1 | 25.5 | -2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.3 | 18.4 | -2.9 | 19.3 | -2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.9 | 8.3 | -1.6 | 12.2 | 2.3 |
Thompson was a key piece for the Cavaliers’ playoff run last season and he has played well again so far this postseason. In the eight games, he is averaging 18.4 fantasy points in just under 30 minutes per game. With Bismack Biyombo starting at center for Toronto, the Cavaliers are going to need Thompson to play big minutes in this series.
Secondary Plays
| Kyrie Irving | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $8,200 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.02 | FP/Min: | 0.93 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 31.5 | 36.3 | 4.8 | 35.0 | 3.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.8 | 36.9 | 6.2 | 33.4 | 2.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.7 | 25.0 | -0.7 | 21.7 | -4.1 |
Irving has taken on a bigger role offensively so far in the postseason. He is averaging 37 fantasy points in 36.3 minutes per contest. While he can post a big outing at any time, I am not going to be looking his way in cash games. Westbrook and Curry both provide higher floors and they both have better matchups. During the regular season, the Raptors were ranked second in fantasy points allowed to point guards.
| J.R. Smith | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | $5,200 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.61 | FP/Min: | 0.63 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.7 | 35.0 | 4.3 | 33.2 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.3 | 21.3 | 0.9 | 18.0 | -2.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 11.0 | -5.0 | 9.4 | -6.6 |
Smith is a borderline elite play at shooting guard, especially on FanDuel where you have to roster two of them. His price is cheap and we know that he isn’t afraid to chuck up shots. My one concern with Smith is his usage rate. He had a much higher usage in the Cavaliers’ offense during the regular season. The big three from Cleveland are soaking up more usage in the playoffs.