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NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 1st

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-02 02:27:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 208.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 101.0 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 10
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM 0.62 -2.21 -1.29 1.09 0.84

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors may not win this series, but they should provide plenty of fantasy goodness along the way. Milwaukee had the third-lowest defensive rating in the playoffs (101.5) and they were 12th in the league following the break (105.5). So far this postseason, Cleveland had the fourth-highest defensive rating (111.0) after ranking 29th in the second half of the season (111.1) – at least they’re consistent. Toronto should also be able to play at a faster speed as Cleveland has a slightly more favorable pace than the Bucks; in the first-round, the Cavs-Pacers series averaged a pace of 97.62 while the Bucks-Raptors games ended with a 92.48 average.

Toronto is expected to run the same starting lineup they used to close out their series with the Bucks. We now have a 62.4-minute sample with Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, DeMar DeRozan, and Serge Ibaka on the floor together. While it’s still small, the results don’t look great for Lowry; his usage was the lowest at 12.2% and he produced 0.50 FD ppm, drops of 14.9% and 0.55 FD ppm from his normal numbers. Not surprisingly, when Ibaka was off the court and Lowry on, the point guard’s usage went back up to 26.3% and he turned in 0.98 FD ppm across 75.6 minutes. Over the final three games of the series, Ibaka’s minutes declined while Lowry exceeded 42 twice. He ended up playing 48.9 of his 123.4 minutes without Ibaka and he managed to average 0.80 FD ppm overall with an 18.4% usage rate. Of course, those aren’t great numbers from him, but it shows what he’s capable of producing without the big man. All in all, his outlook isn’t terrific as he hasn’t adjusted well to the personnel changes.

Ibaka’s minutes had decreased due to a combination of foul trouble and coach Dwane Casey experimenting with rotations. It’s unclear how he will handle the squad in this series, but in the final game against the Bucks, he pushed Serge to 31 minutes before he fouled out, which is an indication of what he wants to do. With LeBron James drawing plenty of contact as he attacks the basket, Cleveland’s opponents racked up 20.6 fouls per game, the sixth-most in the league. It could potentially spell trouble as Ibaka will be tasked with protecting the rim in this series. If he can avoid issues, he should see 30+ minutes a night. He led the team with 0.99 FD ppm in the first round on a 24.4% usage rate, which was second. When playing with Lowry/Powell/DeRozan, he crushed it, delivering 1.28 FD ppm on a 27.7% usage rate. Cleveland is not a good rebounding team; they were 23rd following the break with a rebounding rate of 48.9% and they’re 11th in the playoffs with a rate of 48.6%. Toronto happens to be very good, they were the second-best team in the second half (52.6%) while the Pacers were 10th (50.7%). That’s promising for Ibaka, who led the team with 8.2 rebounds per game in the first round and increased his rebounding rate 3.8% to 16.2%. It’s also a positive sign for Jonas Valanciunas, who will be coming off the bench. JV maintained a 20.8% rebounds rate, but he only played 21.1 minutes per game. Even as Ibaka’s workload decreased in the final games, his didn’t increase and he played just 17 minutes in the finale. He’s someone to keep an eye on though in case the rotations change and he earns some more time on the floor.

Weak rebounding should also help DeRozan, who was third on the team with 5.5 per game against Milwaukee. He loved playing the Cavs this year, he had a usage rate of 38.4% and produced 1.22 FD ppm across three contests, increases of 2.1% and 0.11, respectively. He averaged 5.7 rebounds against them and exceeded 30 actual points twice, and had two or more steals in each meeting. In the 62.4-minute sample with Lowry/Powell/Ibaka on the court with him, he maintained a 30.1% usage rate and produced 0.92 FD ppm. While he takes fewer shots per minute (0.45 FGAs per minute vs 0.59 average), he still leads the team and will be the Raptors primary scorer. Powell ended up fourth with 12.4 points per game despite having a monster Game 5 with 25 points. He only scored eight in the finale on six shots, although he did lose a few minutes at the end of the game due to foul trouble. Powell does most of his damage driving to the hoop as 65.9% of his made baskets come from within five feet. He has a favorable matchup for that type of scoring; Cleveland ranked 20th in opponent field goal percentage from that zone after the break (62.4%) whereas Milwaukee was 12th (59.3%).

The other guys of interest are DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker, Cory Joseph, and Patrick Patterson. Tucker could see plenty of minutes in this series for his defense on LeBron, while Carroll will likely stick around the 20-minute mark. Tucker only returned 0.41 FD ppm on a 9.1% usage rate in the opening series and he’s certainly not there for his offense; he averaged 2.0 points per game against the Bucks, but he did pull down six or more rebounds in the final two games. Carroll was better, averaging 0.74 FD ppm on a 16.2% usage rate, but again, his minutes will likely be limited. Joseph has the highest usage of the bunch at 21.1%, but he only turned it into 0.43 FD ppm. He showed flashes of his upside, scoring at least 10 points in two contests, but he also displayed his volatility as he scored five or fewer in the other three without contributing many peripherals. He should probably receive between 15-20 minutes a night, but he’s not much more than a dart throw. Patterson is similar but comes with less of an upside; he returned 0.55 FD ppm in the opening series and never put up more than eight points. He did earn 23 or more minutes in three games though.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,600 $8,000 1.05 37.4 1.1 39.4 -10.0 27.3% -6.9% 23 -2.16
DeMar DeRozan $8,500 $8,300 1.12 35.4 1.4 39.6 -4.4 34.2% -4.5% 29 -0.77
Norman Powell $4,300 $5,400 0.76 18.0 6.0 13.6 6.3 21.0% -3.2% 26 1.57
DeMarre Carroll $3,400 $3,200 0.66 26.1 -7.7 17.2 -3.9 15.3% -1.2% 9 1.93
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $6,600 0.89 30.7 -1.0 27.2 2.3 20.1% -0.2% 17 0.95
Patrick Patterson $3,600 $2,600 0.63 24.6 -5.6 15.4 -5.0 12.5% -0.8% 9 N/A
P.J. Tucker $3,100 $3,100 0.65 27.6 -3.4 17.9 -7.7 12.0% -2.7% 26 N/A
Jonas Valanciunas $4,900 $4,300 1.00 25.8 -4.7 25.8 -8.2 18.7% 2.2% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are going to have a tougher time with the Raptors than the Pacers; Toronto was fourth in defensive rating in the latter half of the season (102.3). They’re a little better defending the basket as they were sixth after the break in opponent field goal percentage within eight feet (55.1%) while the Pacers were 11th (56.4%). LeBron scored 68.1% of his buckets in that range. The Raptors were eighth in opponent 3P% (33.9%) and the Pacers were 13th (34.9%). Cleveland managed to do very well against Indiana from deep, completing 40.3% of their attempts.

Of course, when it comes to Cleveland, most of the fantasy points come through LeBron, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. James nearly averaged a triple-double in their opening series with 32.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 9.0 assists. However, the Raptors allow fewer points, are a better rebounding team – they ranked 2nd in the latter half of the year – and they were neck and neck with the Pacers in terms of assists allowed (21.3 vs. 21.1). While LeBron will continue to push for triple-doubles, this matchup will be a bit a tougher.

One of the more notable trends in the first round was Kyrie Irving’s rate soaring 6.9% to 39.1% but his per-minute production declined by 0.10 FD ppm to 1.09. While he averaged 25.3 points per game, his assist rate decreased by 14.8% to 14.9%. As a team, Cleveland only posted 19.8 assists per game as LeBron, Kyrie, and others made more of an effort to create their own shots. In the games when they were more assists, they mostly flowed through LeBron James. It looks like this trend will continue, which leaves Kyrie more scoring dependent than normal. On the bright side, he took 0.68 FGAs per minute against the Pacers, which is an extra 0.12 attempts above his normal rate.

As Irving increased his usage, Love’s tumbled 5.7% to 21.6% and his fantasy production slipped 0.26 FD ppm. He’s a points and rebounds guy and he didn’t do well in either category against Indiana. Love’s scoring dropped because he was shooting less, he only took 10.3 FGAs per game, which is a major drop from his 14.5 average during the season. With the way Kyrie and LeBron are playing in the postseason, he’s become a more distant third option on the offensive end. Out of the big three, his minutes are the least secure and historically they tend to fluctuate over the course of their playoff series. He averaged 9.3 rebounds per game as his rebounding rate fell 3.0% to 16.5%. A big part of that reduction was due to Tristan Thompson playing really well; he hauled in 21.0% of all available rebounds while he was on the floor, which is an increase of 4.1%. As mentioned, Toronto is one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Thompson and Love will both have a tougher time in the category. Thompson also has to worry about his minutes, he’s one the four guys who averaged over 30 minutes a night, but he only topped 32 once. He still had double-digit rebounds in every game. The downside is his scoring as he never took more than seven attempts in a game. Overall, he pretty consistently delivered 0.73 FD ppm.

Although he averaged 28.8 minutes per game, J.R. Smith should exceed 30 per game if he’s healthy. He’s a volatile player and he only averaged 0.36 FD ppm in the first round, but if he gets hot, he can score in bunches. He has a favorable matchup with DeMar DeRozan. In the opening round, shooting guard Tony Snell was able to hit 51.6% of his shots from deep.

Following the starting five, Cleveland offers a few dart throws off the bench. Kyle Korver and Iman Shumpert’s minutes will fluctuate depending on Smith’s health. Channing Frye has shown an ability to earn extra minutes if he gets hot, but he never exceeded 19 minutes. Deron Williams earned 22 in Game 3 when Kyrie sat for the fourth quarter. It’s doubtful that happens again. For the most part, the Cavs rely on their starters, and their bench isn’t very appealing. Frye is the best of the bunch as he turned in 1.04 FD ppm in the first round. Williams is the cheapest at $2,500 and he could be an interesting way to differentiate lineups and free up some cap space in tournaments, although he’s certainly risky and carries limited upside in terms of raw points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $7,700 1.09 35.1 -0.7 38.2 -4.2 32.0% 4.8% 11 0.62
J.R. Smith $3,600 $3,900 0.56 29.0 -0.2 16.2 -5.8 14.4% -3.7% 3 -2.21
LeBron James $12,800 $11,400 1.30 37.8 5.9 49.3 14.3 32.9% 1.3% 3 -1.29
Kevin Love $7,900 $7,400 1.14 31.4 1.6 35.8 -7.0 25.2% -5.4% 5 1.09
Tristan Thompson $5,500 $4,700 0.77 30.0 1.2 23.0 -0.1 11.0% 0.2% 10 0.84
Channing Frye $4,200 $3,300 0.83 18.9 -3.5 15.8 -0.3 18.1% -2.6% 5 N/A
Kyle Korver $3,300 $3,000 0.63 26.2 -8.9 16.5 -6.9 15.1% -1.8% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Channing Frye

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – 9:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs
houstonnba Vegas Total 213.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David Lee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.79 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.36 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are in for a tough series. They have an implied total of 103.8 in their first game with the spurs, which is 11.6 below their average. After running at the second-fastest pace of the playoffs with the Thunder (101.33), they’re going to be stuck in a pace-down series. On top of that, San Antonio had the best defensive rating this season (100.9) and they ranked sixth in opponent field goal percentage (44.6%), while the Thunder were 10th (105.1) and 17th (46.1%), respectively. There are a couple areas that are more favorable though. San Antonio was sixth in rebounding (51.4%), ninth in opponent assists (22.1), and 14th in opponent 3P% (35.1%) whereas the Thunder were first (53.4%), sixth (21.1), and 12th (34.8%). Of course, these aren’t major improvements, and the slower pace may negate the differences.

This means James Harden has another tough matchup. During the season, he played 152.6 minutes against the Spurs and he returned 1.37 FD ppm, 0.12 below his average. We saw his peripheral numbers dip in the first round and that trend should likely hold in this series. He exceeded 34 points in four games against the Thunder and he averaged 37.4 minutes per game. He used that time to take 21.4 shots per game while the next-closest guy, Lou Williams, averaged 13.4 FGAs. Overall, Harden averaged 33.2 points and Williams was a distant second at 18.8. Beyond that, Eric Gordon and Nene Hilario tied at 13.6 and a huge chunk of Nene’s scoring came in his monster game. Patrick Beverley was the final player in double digits with 11.6 and he displayed some major volatility in the opener. Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, and Trevor Ariza, round out the fantasy relevant players, they averaged between 6.2-7.6 points. All of these players listed split up the rebounding evenly. Amazingly, these eight players all averaged between 4.2-6.6 rebounds per game. Naturally, Clint Capela and Nene Hilario had the best rebounding rates – 16.3% and 15.9%, respectively – but they were splitting time and will likely continue to do so.

As we can gather from some of the statistics below, the Rockets offer a bunch of dart throw guys. Towards the end of the first series, it became clear that Lou Williams and Eric Gordon are the most appealing guys outside of Harden. They began earning more minutes than Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza, who both did a whole lot of nothing most nights. They both exceeded 30 in the final three games, and Gordon topped 35 in each of those contests. In the final outing, Williams played 33 and Gordon 35. While there’s a chance they adjust for this series, they’re going to need scoring on the floor and these guys are good bets to keep getting similar workloads barring the starters getting hot. Williams is the most exciting option of the duo as he has a higher ceiling, but both are definitely in play and Gordon will come with lower ownership. Over the course of the opening series, Williams had the second-highest usage on the team at 25.1% and returned 0.95 FD ppm while Gordon posted 17.7% and 0.70 in the metrics.

Patrick Beverley is another interesting target. While he’s far from reliable as he scores sporadically, he is an excellent rebounder and his solid defense can earn him extra time on the court when he’s not in foul trouble. He scored 15 or more points in three games against the Thunder, hauled in six or more rebounds in four, and contributed at least three assists in four.

Ryan Anderson will rely too much on his three ball. During the season, he returned 0.54 FD ppm against San Antonio. Ariz was better with 0.73 FD ppm, but he has disappeared in the playoffs despite starting – he’s averaged 0.41 FD ppm in the postseason.

Sam Dekker is available, but he isn’t expected to be in the rotation tonight. He’s been out since he fractured his hand in early April.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,400 $5,000 0.82 30.7 -3.1 25.2 -0.2 16.3% 5.9% 8 -0.79
James Harden $12,800 $10,900 1.48 36.4 1.0 53.9 -3.7 38.6% 3.1% 12 2.10
Trevor Ariza $5,300 $4,800 0.72 34.7 3.3 25.1 -9.0 14.4% -5.2% 2 0.85
Ryan Anderson $4,400 $4,200 0.71 29.4 -0.8 20.9 -6.6 17.2% -3.7% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $6,000 $4,500 1.08 23.9 -1.7 25.9 -3.6 19.1% -4.2% 2 1.36
Eric Gordon $5,000 $4,900 0.77 31.0 2.3 23.8 -0.5 22.0% -4.8% 12 N/A
Nene Hilario $5,200 $4,400 0.97 17.9 4.1 17.3 6.3 19.3% -1.0% 2 N/A
Lou Williams $4,900 $5,200 1.03 24.6 3.9 25.4 1.4 28.9% -4.3% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Louis Williams

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Nene Hilario, Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are the only team with an implied total above their season average – Vegas has them scoring 109.3 points tonight, which is an improvement of 4.0 points. They’re going to go from playing the third-slowest team in basketball to the third-fastest. Houston ranked 19th in defensive rating after the break (108.5), they ranked 22nd in opponent field goal percentage (46.8%), gave up the fourth-most rebounds per game (46.2), the second-most assists (26.4), the seventh-most steals, and the tenth-most blocks (5.1). It’s a mouthwatering matchup for Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Tony Parker.

Parker finished the opening series by playing 30+ minutes in the final three games and he averaged 21.7 points and 5.0 assists during that stretch. His usage rate skyrocketed to 30.3% in the series, an increase of 7.8%, and he produced an extra 0.12 DK ppm, bringing his pace to 0.91. He’s played well against Houston this season, returning 0.87 DK ppm, but that was on a usage rate of 23.5%. If he keeps getting 30+ minutes a night, and it seems like he will, he could be in for a really nice series.

The same goes for Leonard, who scored 187 points on 104 shots against Memphis. In addition to 31.2 points per game, he averaged 6.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.0 steals. All those numbers could go up in this series and he offers a better points-per-dollar projection than both James Harden and LeBron James. Although he shot an unsustainable 58.3% from the field and 48.3% from three, he could easily take more shots against the up-tempo Rockets to make up for a decline towards his average.

Aldridge is coming off a down series. He averaged 14.8 points per game, 2.5 below average, and 7.3 rebounds, which is right on par with his regular season production, despite playing an extra 4.9 minutes per game. He should turn things around starting tonight. Not only is it a more favorable opponent for rebounding, but Houston allows a ton of assists. The big guy isn’t great at creating his own shots, 59.4% of his buckets are assisted. While San Antonio’s assist rate declined in the first round, we should expect them to pick that up against Houston, which will help LA. On top of that, Houston ranked 26th in opponent field goal percentage inside the restricted area after the break (65.6%) and 22nd defending mid-range (40.9%) – 81.6% of Aldridge’s buckets were made in those two zones this season.

Outside of those guys we have David Lee, Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, and Danny Green to consider. Lee is expected to start again. He’s earned 26+ minutes in all three starts this postseason and scored at least seven points and grabbed five or more rebounds in all of them. In 76.3 minutes again Houston this season, he turned in 0.96 DK ppm and he’s a very solid value play tonight. He’s $700 cheaper on FanDuel; his $3,400 salary on the site feels too low for this matchup (assuming he starts). Mills played 22+ minutes in Games 2 through 6 and produced 0.74 DK ppm on a 20.8% usage rate. He even scored 20 points in one game. Ginobili struggled, failing to score in the first four games and after he got going a bit, he was still held to 18 or fewer minutes per game. He may be the least appealing of the group right now. Gasol couldn’t get much going either and he saw his minutes decline over the course of the series. He did well against the Rockets this year though, producing a 1.10 DK ppm on a 22.8% usage rate, both numbers in line with his season average. If he can get his minutes back up, he would be a solid asset tonight. He’ll also be a little sneaky as his ownership should be suppressed due to his performance in the first round. Green didn’t do much against Memphis, as he only scored more than seven points once. He played 22 or fewer minutes in three games, but he could potentially see that rise against Houston, especially if he finds his shot. He averaged 0.71 DK ppm against the Rockets this season and he doesn’t offer much upside, but he could come with low ownership in tournaments with more attention on Norman Powell and Lou Williams on FanDuel, who are both under $5,000 on the site.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $5,000 $5,300 0.74 25.2 1.1 18.6 1.8 23.1% 4.2% 25 1.89
Danny Green $3,900 $3,500 0.62 26.6 -2.9 16.5 -4.0 13.8% -1.5% 26 -1.81
Kawhi Leonard $11,000 $10,200 1.22 33.4 3.8 40.6 4.6 30.9% -2.2% 23 1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,200 $6,500 0.96 32.4 4.1 31.1 -4.9 24.0% -6.2% 27 -0.16
David Lee $3,400 $4,100 0.92 18.7 2.1 17.2 -3.5 17.3% -6.3% 26 1.25
Pau Gasol $4,800 $4,300 1.06 25.4 -1.5 26.9 -9.9 21.5% -5.4% 26 N/A
Patty Mills $4,100 $3,700 0.79 21.9 -0.2 17.2 -2.6 21.8% -0.4% 25 N/A
Manu Ginobili $2,700 $3,400 0.84 18.7 -3.5 15.7 -5.2 22.0% -4.7% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker

Secondary Plays – David Lee, Pau Gasol, Patty Mills, Danny Green

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).