NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7.5, 200 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
| Atlanta Hawks | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.0 |  | Vegas Total | 200.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Opp. Season | 8 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 22 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 11 | Last 3 Weeks | 24 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 23 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 48-34 — Road: 21-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.3 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -6.6 (3 of 4)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.0 (4 of 30)
After outlasting the Celtics in the first round, the Hawks now head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in the first game of their second round matchup. The Hawks lost all three games against the Cavaliers during the regular season and open Game 1 as 7.5-point underdogs. While I expect this series to be competitive, the Hawks just don’t seem to have the firepower to keep up with Cleveland.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Jeff Teague | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,700 | Salary:$6,600 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.07 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 30.4 | 1.9 | 29.4 | 0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 28.0 | 33.3 | 5.3 | 30.2 | 2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.4 | 25.3 | 2.9 | 23.5 | 1.1 |
The one position that the Cavaliers have struggled against this season is point guards. They ended up being ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed and then they let Reggie Jackson have a monster series against them in the first round of the playoffs. Teague is my favorite play on the Hawks tonight, even though he struggled in the last three games of the Celtics’ series. In their three meetings this season, Teague averaged 35.3 fantasy points per game against the Cavaliers.
Secondary Plays
| Paul Millsap | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,600 | Salary:$8,700 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.15 | FP/Min:1.23 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.7 | 33.7 | 1.0 | 34.7 | 2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 44.0 | 6.6 | 44.7 | 7.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 19.4 | -0.5 | 19.5 | -0.4 |
Millsap got off to a very slow start against the Celtics, which was strange given the fact that Boston has struggled against opposing bigs all season. He ended the series strong, but now draws a much tougher test against the Cavaliers’ frontcourt. Millsap seems a bit expensive given the matchup, although he did average 40 fantasy points against them during the regular season.
| Al Horford | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,600 | Salary:$7,500 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.00 | FP/Min:1.06 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 32.3 | 0.2 | 32.5 | 0.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.3 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 34.1 | 1.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 17.9 | 18.4 | 0.5 | 18.7 | 0.7 |
I don’t want to play Horford against the Cavaliers, but we have very few options at center tonight. We basically have to decide between players that we would all usually fade in a full-sized slate. Horford is a bit overpriced, but he did manage to score 32 fantasy points per game against the Cavaliers during the regular season.
| Kent Bazemore | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,500 | Salary:$6,000 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 28.3 | 0.5 | 27.6 | -0.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.1 | 28.3 | 5.3 | 34.6 | 11.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.1 | 16.9 | 0.8 | 20.5 | 4.4 |
Bazemore saw a major minutes boost in the first round of the playoffs and we can expect more of the same in the second round against the Cavaliers. He should see around 35 minutes per game in this series. The main issue here is that he will be defended by LeBron James. During the regular season, Cleveland was ranked sixth against small forwards.
| Kyle Korver | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,100 | Salary:$4,700 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.59 | FP/Min:0.65 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.0 | 30.6 | 0.6 | 30.5 | 0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 17.7 | 14.9 | -2.8 | 12.3 | -5.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 11.4 | 10.4 | -1.0 | 9.3 | -2.1 |
Value is tough to come by tonight. I’m a little worried that we could see more Thabo Sefolosha in this series, which would cut into Korver’s minutes. However, he should still see 30+ minutes in a game where the Hawks may need his outside shooting. Given the lack of value in this slate, Korver is at least worth a look tonight.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 57-25 — Home: 33-8 — Last 10: 6-4
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.8 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (2 of 4)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.0 (13 of 30)
The Cavaliers made quick work of the Pistons in the first round and now come into this series well rested. They are sizable favorites in the series overall and they open up as 7.5-point favorites in Game 1. The Cavaliers are projected to score 103.8 points, which is the second highest team total next to the Spurs. We really don’t have to change our game plan with the Cavaliers in this series.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| LeBron James | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,300 | Salary:$10,300 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.26 | FP/Min:1.36 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.6 | 35.8 | 0.2 | 33.0 | -2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 45.0 | 51.5 | 6.5 | 43.6 | -1.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.4 | 25.8 | -1.6 | 21.9 | -5.4 |
James finished the season strong and then came out and helped his team sweep the Pistons in the first round. He looks as motivated as ever. While the Hawks have some decent perimeter defenders in Sefolosha and Bazemore, that won’t be enough to stop James. He is the top overall play tonight, as the Cavaliers will look to get off to a strong start in this series.
| Kevin Love | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,500 | Salary:$8,000 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.03 | FP/Min:1.13 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 29.3 | -2.2 | 27.3 | -4.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.4 | 33.1 | 0.7 | 31.9 | -0.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.9 | 22.3 | 2.3 | 22.9 | 3.0 |
Love played well against the Pistons and now gets an even better matchup in the second round. During the regular season, the Hawks were ranked 28th in rebounding differential. I prefer Love over the more expensive Paul Millsap and consider him close to a must play tonight in cash games.
| Tristan Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$4,100 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.77 | FP/Min:0.80 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.7 | 25.4 | -2.3 | 21.4 | -6.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.3 | 20.1 | -1.2 | 18.3 | -3.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.9 | 9.5 | -0.4 | 10.7 | 0.8 |
As mentioned above, value is tough to find tonight. One of the places that looks like a good spot to punt is with Thompson (especially on FanDuel where he is listed as a center). He may have some volatility to his game, but he should see big minutes in this series, as the Hawks don’t play small ball all that often.
Secondary Plays
| Kyrie Irving | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,800 | Salary:$8,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.06 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 34.2 | 2.7 | 34.0 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.8 | 35.9 | 5.2 | 35.6 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.7 | 27.4 | 1.7 | 25.6 | -0.1 |
In a vacuum, Irving is an elite play. However, he is my fourth favorite target on the Cavaliers tonight, so I moved him down to a secondary option. The Hawks were one of the best defenses in the NBA against point guards this season and they managed to keep Isaiah Thomas in check for three of the six games in the first round.
| J.R. Smith | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,600 | Salary:$5,000 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.66 | FP/Min:0.72 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.7 | 31.3 | 0.6 | 29.9 | -0.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.3 | 21.0 | 0.6 | 20.6 | 0.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 | 15.3 | -0.7 |
Smith is a decent value play tonight at shooting guard. While he doesn’t contribute a lot across the board, he is going to get his shots up. The Cavaliers are so stacked offensively that Smith gets a lot of open looks from beyond the arc. He is a viable punt play tonight in both cash games and tournaments.
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – 9:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 201 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- San Antonio Spurs Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
| Oklahoma City Thunder | San Antonio Spurs | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.0 |  | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 16 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 19 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 55-27 — Road: 23-18 — Last 10: 5-5
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.8 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -13.5 (4 of 4)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 92.9 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.4 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 180.6 (1 of 30)
The Thunder were absolutely demolished in Game 1 against the Spurs. It was a wake up call that they were no longer facing a hobbled Mavericks’ team. Oklahoma City will look to bounce back tonight, but they are still listed as 7.5-point underdogs on the road. Hopefully they will be able to keep the game closer this time around so that the starters from both teams can see a full complement of minutes.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Russell Westbrook | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,600 | Salary:$10,700 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.42 | FP/Min:1.56 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.4 | 33.1 | -1.3 | 29.3 | -5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 48.8 | 46.9 | -1.9 | 43.5 | -5.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 28.3 | 27.7 | -0.7 | 25.9 | -2.5 |
Once again, I have a hard time listing Westbrook or Durant as elite plays against the Spurs, at least in the games that are going to be played in San Antonio. The Spurs had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season and the Thunder are only projected to score 96.8 points, which is 13.5 points less than their season average.
| Kevin Durant | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$10,000 | Salary:$9,500 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.30 | FP/Min:1.38 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.8 | 34.7 | -1.1 | 32.2 | -3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.4 | 47.8 | 1.3 | 47.4 | 1.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 30.2 | 3.9 | 30.8 | 4.5 |
Durant is in the same boat as Westbrook. I may look at both of them once the series shifts back to Oklahoma City, but it’s hard to pay a premium for either player in this matchup. Kawhi Leonard is the best defender in the NBA and he is going to make life difficult on Durant in this series.
San Antonio Spurs
Record: 67-15 — Home: 40-1 — Last 10: 6-4
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (1 of 4)
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 8.4 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.4 (11 of 30)
The Spurs gave a nice little reminder to the Thunder that they are the team to beat in this series. They ended up with a 32-point victory in Game 1. The Spurs are sizable favorites again tonight, although the game is expected to be closer this time around. The Spurs are projected to score 104.3 points, which gives them the highest team total and the highest projected point differential.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Kawhi Leonard | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,200 | Salary:$9,000 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.13 | FP/Min:1.20 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.1 | 35.5 | 2.4 | 37.5 | 4.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 37.5 | 42.4 | 4.9 | 42.4 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 23.8 | 1.5 | 24.8 | 2.6 |
Leonard was well on his way to having another monster outing if it weren’t for the blowout in Game 1. He finished with 38 fantasy points in only 22 minutes of action. Moving forward, he should play around 35 minutes per game with the potential for more if it stays close. While James is the top overall play tonight, I actually prefer Leonard when you factor in their salaries.
| Tony Parker | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,700 | Salary:$4,600 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.84 | FP/Min:0.86 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.5 | 29.3 | 1.8 | 31.3 | 3.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.0 | 17.2 | -5.8 | 19.7 | -3.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 16.8 | -2.1 | 16.6 | -2.3 |
Before Game 1 I mentioned that I was expecting big things from Parker in this series. I expect him to see around 30 minutes per game and the Thunder have been susceptible to point guards all season. Parker played well in the opener, scoring 25 fantasy points in only 27 minutes of action. Dollar for dollar, he is my top point guard target tonight.
Secondary Plays
| LaMarcus Aldridge | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,100 | Salary:$7,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.05 | FP/Min:1.11 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.6 | 31.4 | 0.8 | 27.3 | -3.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 32.3 | 32.5 | 0.3 | 24.5 | -7.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.0 | 21.1 | -0.9 | 22.0 | 0.0 |
After being quiet against the Grizzlies in the first round, Aldridge broke out with a monster game against the Thunder. He finished with 49 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. The problem is that I expect his ownership to go way up tonight. Not only that, but his price is up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Serge Ibaka is generally known as an above-average defender, so I may take the fade Aldridge bus tonight and hope that it pays off.
| Tim Duncan | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,000 | Salary:$4,800 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.95 | FP/Min:0.99 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.2 | 27.8 | 2.6 | 29.2 | 4.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.0 | 21.8 | -2.2 | 22.6 | -1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.7 | 16.1 | 1.4 | 19.4 | 4.7 |
Duncan is certainly in play tonight at center, especially on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I expect Tristan Thompson to be the chalk, but he is listed as a power forward on DraftKings. Duncan may be getting up there in age, but he is still averaging close to a fantasy point per minute. He can have those 35-40 fantasy point outings every now and then.
| Danny Green | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,000 | Salary:$3,500 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.66 | FP/Min:0.71 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 26.1 | 24.6 | -1.5 | 26.8 | 0.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 17.3 | 16.7 | -0.6 | 18.3 | 1.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 12.5 | 12.3 | -0.2 | 12.3 | -0.2 |
Speaking of inflated ownership, Green is going to be everyone’s favorite value play tonight after he scored 31 fantasy points in Game 1. Can he repeat that performance? Sure, but he is a very inconsistent player that could just as easily put up a dud. For that reason, I see him as more of a secondary play tonight.