NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-12-09 20:48:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Golden State at Charlotte

• Vegas Line – Golden State -5.5, 194 Over/Under
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Lee-Bogut
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Taylor-McRoberts-Jefferson

Golden State

This game is expected to be a lot closer than I originally would have guessed. Vegas has the Warriors only favored by 5.5 which is pretty low considering the two teams playing. But if Vegas thinks the Bobcats can keep it close, then so do I. The Warriors are in the top half of the league in both pace of play (98) and points scored per game (102). They are taking on a Bobcats teams that is at the very bottom of the league in those areas. Vegas has the total of this one set at 194 points which is really right in the middle of both team’s averages.

The Bobcats have really defended PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s well this season. It may be surprising, but they are ranked in the top 5 against all three of those positions. They have struggled against SF’s and Centers though. While I think Harrison Barnes carries some value, I’m looking to the big man here.

• Andrew Bogut – Bogut often flies under the radar because he doesn’t have the most flashy game and he is the 3rd or 4th option offensively. However, he consistently puts up 25+ fantasy points and makes a great sleeper play tonight against Jefferson and the Bobcats. His price is very cheap on a couple of sites and he should easily make value.

Charlotte

Like I mentioned earlier, the Bobcats rank at the very bottom of the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (89). They have really struggled to score this season. However, they do have an above average matchup tonight against the Warriors. The Bobcats will be without MKG, Jeffery Taylor, and Bismack Biyombo tonight so Anthony Tolliver will step in as the starting SF and the bigs should see a few extra minutes.

The Warriors have defended SG’s and SF’s well and even though some of that has to do with the defense of Iguodala, their DvP rankings against those positions haven’t dropped by much since he got hurt. The two positions to target against the Warriors are PG’s and PF’s. While McRoberts is a borderline value play, Kemba is the best play here.

• Kemba Walker – Walker has averaged over 30 fantasy points per game at home this season. He has a favorable matchup against the Warriors who are ranked 28th against PG’s. Having Jefferson back in the lineup really helps take the load off of him defensively and other teams can’t pack the paint anymore because both McRoberts and Jefferson can shoot.

L.A.Clippers at Philadelphia

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -9, 208.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Turner-Thompson-Young-Hawes

L.A.Clippers

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines, this one is going to be a race to 120 points. The Clippers are the 5th highest scoring team in the league and the Sixers have given up the most points per game in the league. This game should easily be the highest scoring game of the night. The Clippers will still be without J.J. Redick tonight. While Willie Green gets the start, Jamal Crawford benefits the most from his absence.

The Sixers rank dead last against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s. They also rank 21st and 27th against PF’s and Centers so basically everyone is in play here. While I don’t mind the plays of DeAndre Jordan (GTD decision tonight) and Jamal Crawford, the two All-Stars are the plays here.

• Chris Paul – Paul is my top overall fantasy option tonight. The Sixers have been absolutely dreadful against PG’s this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paul put up 15, 15, and 5 in this one. I think his floor is around 40 fantasy points.

• Blake Griffin – Griffin is at his best when he can run the floor and use his athleticism. This game should be in the open floor all night long. The Sixers have the worst defense in the league and you know that Paul is going to push the pace. Look for Griffin to get quite a few highlight dunks in this one.

Philadelphia

The Sixers are always a good team to see on the schedule because you know there are going to be a lot of fantasy options in that game. Tonight’s matchup against the Clippers is a pretty favorable one. The Clippers are giving up over 100 points per game and have really struggled to defend down low. It sounds like Michael Carter-Williams will sit out again tonight so everyone’s favorite value play should be in for another big game tonight.

• Tony Wroten – As soon as the word is official that MCW is sitting out, Wroten becomes close to a must play. He is still very affordable on sites across the board and he continues to play well when he gets the opportunity. Don’t over-think this one, get him in your lineups.

• Spencer Hawes – I really like Hawes individual matchup in this one. Jordan makes his living by blocking shots and grabbing rebounds and he is going to have a hard time defending Hawes on the perimeter. Jordan’s natural reaction is to protect the rim and Hawes should get plenty of open looks here.

Denver at Washington

• Vegas Line – Denver -1, 199.5 Over/Under
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Webster-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Denver

The Nuggets and Wizards is expected to be a very close, very high scoring game which is always good to see. There are also quite a few injuries in this one that should open up some big minutes for the backups. The Nuggets will be without Ty Lawson tonight so look for Andre Miller to get the start and for Nate Robinson to pick up some good minutes as well. I like both of them as value plays tonight and would use Miller in cash games and Robinson in GPP’s.

• Wilson Chandler – It’s hard to trust any of the bigs of the Nuggets at this point because none of them are guaranteed to get 30 minutes. Hickson, Faried, and Mozgov are all seeing less than 30 minutes lately. Instead, I’d rather take a chance on Chandler. He is extremely cheap and has been very consistent this season.

Washington

The Wizards are going to be without Nene Hilario and Martell Webster tonight. While this will open up some more minutes for their backups, I think it’s safe to bump up both Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat with those two guys out. The Nuggets have been very poor defensively and have really struggled to defend the paint. John Wall is also in play here against the much older Andre Miller, but his price is so high that I’d rather take Paul with his matchup against the Sixers.

• Marcin Gortat – I’m expected big things from Gortat tonight. Not only do the Nuggets struggle to defend Centers, but with no Nene in the lineup he should see a nice boost in both minutes and production. I’m calling for 30+ fantasy points from Gortat tonight.

• Trevor Ariza – Ariza’s price varies across the board, but on sites where he is in that mid-tier, I think he makes a great play against the Nuggets. He can do a little bit of everything on the floor and Ariza should push for 40 minutes tonight if this one stays close.

Orlando at Memphis

• Vegas Line – Memphis -8.5, 188 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos

Orlando

The Magic are playing in a back to back situation and are facing one of the best defenses in the league. That’s usually not a recipe for success. The one situation to monitor here though is the health of Nikola Vucevic, if he sits again tonight, I like both Glen Davis and Andrew Nicholson as value plays. The matchup doesn’t bode well for the rest of the team though so I will be fading the likes of Nelson, Afflalo, and Oladipo.

Memphis

The Grizzlies have a decent matchup against the Magic tonight, but the Vegas line in this one scares me a bit. The total of the game is set at only 188 points which is by far the lowest of the night. Not only that, but the Grizzlies are favored by 8 and the Magic could get blown out in the second half of their back to back.

Even with the potential blowout, I think both of the bigs for the Grizzlies could be in for big nights. If Vucevic doesn’t play, the Magic are going to be extremely under-sized down low.

• Zach Randolph – Randolph has a favorable matchup against Davis tonight. He finally has a matchup with a similar style of player. Both of these guys use their bodies to create shots because neither one is going to win an athleticism award anytime soon. The price and upside are both there for Z-Bo.

• Kosta Koufos – His price varies across the board so he is really a site-specific play. But on sites where his price is still low, he makes a great option tonight against the Magic. He has really filled in well for Gasol and should keep it going tonight.

Portland at Utah

• Vegas Line – Portland -7, 203 Over/Under
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter

Portland

The Blazers crushed the Jazz the other night in Portland. While I expect the Jazz to put up a much better effort at home tonight, there is still a big risk of this one turning into a blowout, especially if Favors doesn’t play tonight. That said, there are some nice fantasy options in this one. The Jazz struggle to defense SF’s and may be extremely under-sized down low.

• LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge put up 20 and 15 in only 29 minutes against the Jazz the other night. If this one stays close and he gets a full complement of minutes, he could easily top 45 fantasy points here. He is playing at an incredible level and the Jazz bigs aren’t going to be the ones to slow him down.

• Nicolas Batum – Batum also played well the other night against the Jazz and his value really depends on the amount of minutes he gets. I like him more as a GPP play than a cash game play just because this one could get ugly early. That said, the Jazz are ranked 27th against SF’s this season.

Utah

The Jazz continue to play inconsistently. Marvin Williams has been ruled out of tonight’s game and it looks like Derrick Favors is headed towards a game-time decision. While these injuries will open up minutes for Enes Kanter, they don’t bode well for the Jazz chances to keep this game close. Trey Burke makes a nice value play against the Blazers who are ranked 23rd against PG’s. Gordon Hayward may be asked to pick up the slack offensively, but I don’t know if I’m using either of these two in cash games.

• Enes Kanter – Kanter played awful against the Blazers the other night, but if Favors can’t go, Kanter is going to have to play 30+ minutes even in a blowout. For his price, you have to love the potential upside. Even if Favors does play, he will start and see good minutes so he might be worth the risk even if we don’t find out about Favors before the first game tips off.

Dallas at Sacramento

• Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 206 Over/Under
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Williams-Thompson-Cousins

Dallas

It will be very interesting to see how this game plays out. The Kings are going to be extremely short-handed after the Rudy Gay trade, but a limited rotation may actually help. The Mavericks have a very favorable matchup as the Kings are giving up 101 points per game and rank in the bottom 12 against PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s. While I don’t mind either backcourt option here, I think the best play is old reliable.

• Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk is playing at an extremely high level and new uptempo pace seems to have given Dirk some new life. He has a great matchup tonight against the Kings who are ranked 19 against PF’s. Look for Dirk to post a 20 and 10 tonight in this very favorable matchup.

Sacramento

The Kings will be without Vasquez, Patterson, Salmons, and Chuck Hayes tonight thanks to the Rudy Gay trade. That means that their bench will be very thin in this one so we can expect huge minutes for the starters. The biggest aspect of this trade is that Isaiah Thomas will finally step into the starting PG role. He’s been great off the bench this season. Ben McLemore will also see big minutes tonight, he’s scored over 20 FP’s in three straight.

• DeMarcus Cousins – It will be interesting to see how Cousins and Gay get along, but Cousins will have one more game before Gay steps in. I expect Cousins to see monster minutes and put up some monster numbers against the Mavericks who have not defended Centers well this season. Cousins should compete with CP3 as the top scoring fantasy players tonight.

• Isaiah Thomas – It’s about time Thomas gets a chance to start. Even thought the Mavs have defended PG’s well this season, Thomas will see major minutes and be leaned on to score tonight. For the price, he is one of the better value plays tonight.