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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 9th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-09 21:21:38

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Memphis at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM

Memphis L.A. Clippers
memphisnba Vegas Total 197.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 96.20 Team Pace 102.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 17 23 6 21 26 Opp. Season 21 21 26 17 7
Opp. Last 7 17 23 6 21 26 Opp. Last 7 21 21 26 17 7

Memphis

It’s still very early, but the Grizzlies look like a team that has missed their window of opportunity. They have been far from an elite team defensively and they are only 3-4 to start the season. There is obviously still a ton of basketball to be played though, and they can take a big step forward tonight with a win over the Clippers.

This will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies, as the Clippers average over six more possessions per game. Memphis has been an easy team to avoid early in the season, but they draw a nice matchup tonight. The Clippers are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game, 26th in rebounding differential (which is surprising with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan down low), and 19th in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the Grizzlies have a low implied team total of 95.5 points, it is actually five points higher than their average on the season.

I always like to look for opportunities to buy low on players. With the way that the Grizzlies have been playing, basically all five of their starters are priced at a discount. Marc Gasol is an excellent option at center tonight. His price is down across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers this season. If the Grizzlies can keep this game close, he should play around 35-38 minutes. I worry about potential foul trouble tonight for Zach Randolph and I always try to avoid taking point guards against Chris Paul. Gasol is really the only fantasy option on my radar here.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 24.9 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Secondary Plays

NONE

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are looking to bounce back tonight, after losing their last two games to the Warriors and Rockets. The Clippers seem destined to be a bridesmaid in the tough Western Conference. They are listed as six point favorites tonight against the Grizzlies at home.

The Grizzlies have not looked like themselves in the first two weeks of the season. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. All signs point to a big outing from the Clippers tonight, but I’m not giving up on the Grizzlies’ defense just yet. Memphis has played at the fourth slowest pace of any team this season and if they are even an average defense moving forward, they will be ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points allowed.

Originally, Chris Paul was listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but he has since been upgraded to probable. That sends Austin Rivers back to the bench and it really makes it tough to love any individual player tonight in this matchup. Blake Griffin is still a borderline elite play, although I like him a little less now that Paul is playing. DeAndre Jordan gets a slight boost with Paul in the lineup, as he relies on a lot of lobs and easy dunks from Paul for his offensive production. However, Marc Gasol is one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,600
Min/Game: 35.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.9
FP/Game: 47.4 — FP/Min.: 1.35

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 31.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.0
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Detroit at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Detroit Golden State
detroitnba Vegas Total 210.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd 13.5 Vegas Sprd -13.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 111.8
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 104.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Festus Ezeli
Opp. Season 26 7 4 15 18 Opp. Season 12 14 3 9 2
Opp. Last 7 26 7 4 15 18 Opp. Last 7 12 14 3 9 2

Detroit

The Pistons have surprised a lot of people with their play in the first two weeks of the season. They are 5-1 to open the season, including an impressive 3-0 record on the road. Unfortunately, that streak will likely come to an end tonight, as they have to face the undefeated Warriors on their own home floor.

Even though the Warriors play at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA, they are still ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. They are quickly becoming a team that I automatically fade players against, especially when they are playing at home. The Pistons are 13.5-point underdogs tonight in what could be yet another blowout in Oracle Arena. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have all been viable fantasy options early on, but they are all secondary options tonight against the Warriors.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $9,300 — DK: $9,100
Min/Game: 38.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.9
FP/Game: 50.7 — FP/Min.: 1.32

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.5
FP/Game: 36.4 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Marcus Morris

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 38.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.9
FP/Game: 28.8 — FP/Min.: 0.75

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 37.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.1
FP/Game: 23.8 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Golden State

The Warriors are good. In fact, maybe they are too good. Can we get someone to test the air pressure of the balls used by Golden State? Nope, that wouldn’t explain it. How about steroids? Nope, have you seen Stephen Curry? I think I’ve figured it out – mind control. It’s the only possible explanation after the Warriors have started 7-0, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game. Anything can happen in sports, but I won’t hesitate to say that they will keep their undefeated record intact tonight against the Pistons.

On paper, the Pistons are one of the worst matchups in daily fantasy basketball. The Pistons play at a slow pace and they are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Vegas doesn’t seem to care though, as the Warriors have an implied team total of 111.8 points. The usual suspects are all in play for the Warriors tonight, but as always, there is a good chance that this turns into a blowout.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,500
Min/Game: 33.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 28.6
FP/Game: 51.9 — FP/Min.: 1.55

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

FD: $7,600 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 33.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.6
FP/Game: 30.7 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Harrison Barnes

FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.6
FP/Game: 24.8 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Festus Ezeli

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 19.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.3
FP/Game: 23.3 — FP/Min.: 1.17

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious