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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-11 03:03:25

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Orlando at Indiana – 7:00 PM

Orlando Indiana
orlandonba Vegas Total 195.5 indiananba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 96.0 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 5 8 20 4 27 Opp. Season 27 12 8 18 4
Opp. Last 7 5 8 20 4 27 Opp. Last 7 27 12 8 18 4

Orlando

The Magic have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. They have all of the key ingredients that we are looking for in our daily fantasy basketball recipe. They have talented players that see extended minutes and they provide one of the best fantasy matchups for their opponents. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in an epic battle between two 3-4 teams.

The Pacers struggled defensively in their first few games of the season, but they have turned it around over the last week of play. They are now ranked right at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pacers have slowed their pace of play down and it shows with the fact that the Magic are only projected to score 96 points tonight. Orlando has the third lowest implied team total.

Nikola Vucevic has not been officially ruled out of tonight’s game, but the chances of him playing are slim. If he is forced out of action, Dewayne Dedmon would draw another start at center. Dedmon has been a viable punt play in his last two starts, scoring 21 and 31 fantasy points. Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier have both been bright spots in Orlando’s offense, but they both seem a bit overpriced for their matchup tonight against the Pacers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 38.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.9
FP/Game: 35.8 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,400 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 37.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.5
FP/Game: 27.8 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Dewayne Dedmon

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 21.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 11.2
FP/Game: 19.2 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Indiana

The Pacers have won three of their last four games, after starting the season out 0-3. Their biggest improvement has been their play on the defensive end of the floor. They will look to get back to .500 tonight with a win over the Magic at home. Indiana won’t see a major pace boost in this matchup, although Orlando has averaged nearly three more possessions per game this season.

The Magic present a favorable matchup for the Pacers tonight. On the season, Orlando is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Their defense actually may be slightly better with Dewayne Dedmon starting at center, but that’s not enough reason to avoid the Pacers tonight. They have an implied team total of 99.5 points in a game that is expected to stay close throughout.

Paul George looks as good as he ever has. In his last three games, he has scored at least 45 fantasy points in each. He has a high usage rate of 25.9 and he contributes in all areas of the stat sheet. Even though their projected lineup says otherwise, I expect the Pacers to start small tonight. With Tobias Harris starting at the four for Orlando, the Pacers will likely follow suit and start George at the four tonight. If that’s the case, C.J. Miles should draw another start. He’s a high-volume scorer, but he provides little in terms of peripheral stats. George Hill is also worth a look. We love minutes in daily fantasy and he is seeing lose to 38 minutes per game.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,600
Min/Game: 35.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 25.9
FP/Game: 41.6 — FP/Min.: 1.16

Secondary Plays

George Hill

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 37.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.4
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min.: 0.70

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 28.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.1
FP/Game: 19.1 — FP/Min.: 0.68

Chicago at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM

Chicago Philadelphia
chicagonba Vegas Total 197.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 99.90 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Doug McDermott Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 20 4 28 27 22 Opp. Season 22 10 25 13 19
Opp. Last 7 20 4 28 27 22 Opp. Last 7 22 10 25 13 19

Chicago

The Bulls have been very inconsistent to start the season, but they are still 4-3 on the year. They have increased their pace of play under coach Fred Hoiberg and it has really hurt their play on the defensive end of the floor. The good news is that tonight they face the Sixers, who have one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season.

In terms of the matchup, there are few teams that allow more fantasy points than the Sixers. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Sixers do play at a very slow pace, but their lack of defense more than makes up for it. The Bulls have an implied team total of 102.8 points, which is the sixth highest on the schedule tonight.

I would love to recommend the Bulls’ bigs tonight against the Sixers, but only Pau Gasol is seeing consistent minutes and even he is only seeing around 30 per game. Nikola Mirotic, Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson are all splitting the other 66 minutes available at the power forward and center positions. For now, it’s best to avoid any big man not-named Gasol. Derrick Rose is too inconsistent for my liking, as is Doug McDermott. The only fantasy option that really stands out in this matchup is Jimmy Butler. Jimmy “minutes” is consistent, he’s a great scorer, and he contributes in all statistical categories.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 36.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.5
FP/Game: 35.6 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 30.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.0
FP/Game: 31.9 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Doug McDermott

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 20.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.3
FP/Game: 13.4 — FP/Min.: 0.66

Philadelphia

The Sixers are competing with the Nets and Pelicans to see which team can last the longest without picking up a win. It’s like a starting contest where no one really cares who wins. The Sixers will have a tough time picking up their first win tonight, as they are 8.5-point underdogs at home against the Bulls.

The Bulls are no longer a team that we have to avoid targeting players against. Under Fred Hoiberg, they are more concerned with their play on the offensive end of the floor. On the season, Chicago is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have the lowest implied team total of the night at only 94.3 points.

T.J. McConnell remains an elite play at point guard, despite the low team total. He has really been a nice addition to the starting lineup, averaging 27 fantasy points per game in his three starts. He still has some work to do on the offensive part of his game, but he fills up all areas of the stat sheet, which gives him a high floor. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and Nik Stauskas have all been logging heavy minutes and are all in play tonight as secondary options.

Elite Plays

T.J. McConnell

FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 28.8 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 11.1
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 32.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.1
FP/Game: 30.1 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 34.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.6
FP/Game: 28.3 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Nik Stauskas

FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 31.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.4
FP/Game: 22.8 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Minnesota at Atlanta – 8:00 PM

Minnesota Atlanta
minnesotanba Vegas Total 203.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 101.30 Team Pace 99.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 8 13 13 20 23 Opp. Season 2 18 2 5 20
Opp. Last 7 8 13 13 20 23 Opp. Last 7 2 18 2 5 20

Minnesota

The Wolves have a lot of young talent on their team, but when you are trying to get so many players minutes, it makes it difficult to predict fantasy production. Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins are the only players that have averaged over 30 minutes per game this season and both players are right around 31 minutes.

The Wolves draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked tenth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Wolves are large 9-point underdogs and have a low implied team total of 97 points. With a less than ideal matchup and the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, I hesitate to recommend any players as elite options here. Andrew Wiggins has finally turned his season around and is the closest to an elite play. Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nemanja Bjelica are all secondary plays.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 31.5 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.8
FP/Game: 35.8 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 31.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 26.0
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 28.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 33.3 — FP/Min.: 1.18

Nemanja Bjelica

FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 28.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 10.2
FP/Game: 22.1 — FP/Min.: 0.77

Atlanta

After losing their season opener, the Hawks have reeled off seven straight wins. They look to increase their win streak tonight, as they host the visiting Wolves. This game has a relatively high total of 203 points, but it does have the potential to turn into a blowout, as the Hawks are listed as 9-point favorites.

Despite playing at an above-average pace, the Wolves have actually been very good defensively this season. That’s a long cry from where they were last year. Minnesota is currently ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying in on their defense tonight though, as the Hawks have an implied team total of 106 points.

I’ve mentioned this several times this season. The Hawks are a tough team to predict on a nightly basis because they have a deep rotation and they are well-balanced offensively. They are recreating the Spurs’ blue-print, which isn’t great for individual fantasy production. Putting the team ahead of individual stats? Come on now! Kent Bazemore is the one player that really stands out in this matchup. After a slow start to the season, he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games. His price has yet to fully reflect his new role in the Hawks’ starting lineup. Paul Millsap is also a borderline elite play at a think power forward position.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 34.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 18.3
FP/Game: 37.9 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Kent Bazemore

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 28.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.5
FP/Game: 24.9 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.0
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Jeff Teague

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 31.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 24.7
FP/Game: 32.0 — FP/Min.: 1.03

Dennis Schroder

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 23.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 20.6 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Portland at Denver – 9:00 PM

Portland Denver
portlandnba Vegas Total 208.5 denvernba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 100.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried
Opp. Season 29 30 15 22 13 Opp. Season 28 20 1 7 28
Opp. Last 7 29 30 15 22 13 Opp. Last 7 28 20 1 7 28

Portland

The Blazers have played as well as anyone cold have hoped for this season. Despite losing four-fifths of their starting lineup, they are 4-3 to open the season. Tonight they travel to Denver to take on a Nuggets’ team that seems destined to be near the bottom of the Western Conference standings each season.

There are few better matchups in daily fantasy basketball than the Denver Nuggets. They play at a fast pace – 100.8 possessions per game, and they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Blazers have an implied team total of 103.8 points tonight, which is the fourth highest on the schedule.

This game is expected to be fast-paced and high-scoring. When those two combine, we tend to get fantasy goodness. It’s like combining beer and wings, it’s really hard to go wrong. The potential All-Star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are two of my favorite plays on the board tonight. Both players have a turnover-adjusted usage rate of at least 23.7 and both players are still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Al-Farouq Aminu has been a great fit for the Blazers and he is making the most of his chance to start. Mason Plumlee aka “Plumdog Millionaire” and Meyers Leonard also deserve consideration. This is one of those games where the Blazers’ bigs should clean up the glass and get plenty of easy buckets down low.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 36.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 27.7
FP/Game: 40.7 — FP/Min.: 1.11

C.J. McCollum

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 34.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 23.7
FP/Game: 31.5 — FP/Min.: 0.92

Al-Farouq Aminu

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 15.3
FP/Game: 26.4 — FP/Min.: 0.80

Secondary Plays

Mason Plumlee

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 25.9 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 14.4
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Meyers Leonard

FD: $4,400 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 24.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.1
FP/Game: 15.8 — FP/Min.: 0.65

Denver

The Nuggets are looking for their first home win of the season tonight, as they host the visiting Blazers. This should be a terrific game to target for fantasy production, as both teams play at a fast pace and both teams are ranked below the league average in defensive efficiency. The total for the game is set at 208.5 points and it is expected to stay close throughout.

On paper, the Nuggets have a very mediocre matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked between tenth and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While the matchup doesn’t jump off the page at us, Denver has an implied team total of 104.8 points, which is the fourth highest on the board tonight.

The Nuggets will still be without Jusuf Nurkic and Wilson Chandler, as both players are still at least a week away from returning to the lineup. Joffrey Lauvergne is listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to go, J.J. Hickson would see extended action once again. If the Nuggets decide to go small, all five of their starters would be in play tonight. Emmanuel Mudiay has been turnover-prone in his rookie season, but the Blazers are one of the worst teams at defending point guards. Wing players Gary Harris and Will Barton are both nice plays at shooting guard. Barton has the higher upside of the two. Danilo Gallinari is a borderline elite play at the always-thin small forward position. And finally, Kenneth Faried is worth a look in tournaments.

Elite Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 33.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 19.7
FP/Game: 29.2 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 30.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 22.3
FP/Game: 23.8 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Will Barton

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 25.7 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 20.0
FP/Game: 25.0 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 27.2 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 16.5
FP/Game: 28.5 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Gary Harris

FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,400
Min/Game: 25.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 12.2
FP/Game: 16.4 — FP/Min.: 0.65

San Antonio at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

San Antonio Sacramento
sanantonionba Vegas Total 205.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 104.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo James Anderson Rudy Gay Quincy Acy Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 18 26 12 28 29 Opp. Season 24 1 7 1 3
Opp. Last 7 18 26 12 28 29 Opp. Last 7 24 1 7 1 3

San Antonio

The Spurs are 4-2 to start the season with a positive point differential of 9.3 points per game. They are listed as 8-point favorites tonight against the Kings in Sacramento. While there is still the potential for a blowout in this one, it helps that the Kings are expecting to have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup.

The Spurs draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Spurs have an implied team total of 106.8 points, which is the second highest on the board tonight.

If the Kings are able to keep this game competitive, it sets up for another big game from Kawhi Leonard. He has basically been the sole fantasy option in this Spurs’ lineup this season. Not only does he contribute in all areas of the stat sheet, but he also has a high turnover-adjusted usage rate of 24.0. LaMarcus Aldridge and Danny Green are also in play, but they are best suited as tournament plays tonight.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 33.4 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 24.0
FP/Game: 38.0 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,200 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 30.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.2
FP/Game: 29.1 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Danny Green

FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 28.1 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 13.3
FP/Game: 17.6 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Sacramento

The Kings have lost five games in a row, but they are expecting to have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup tonight. They could really use him at this point. Even though Cousins is expected to play, the Kings are still listed as 8-point underdogs against the Spurs at home.

The Spurs have been one of the worst matchups in fantasy basketball for years. Not only do they have an elite defense, but they are involved in a lot of blowouts, both of which are bad for fantasy production. On the season, San Antonio is ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

The one position that the Spurs have struggled to defend this season is point guards. They have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to the position and with Darren Collison out tonight, Rajon Rondo becomes a very intriguing play. Rondo has never had the best offensive game, so having DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup should only help take the pressure off of Rondo. When his mind is right, he is one of the most productive point guards when it comes to peripheral stats. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay both seem overpriced for their matchup. Marco Belinelli is worth a look though, as he has been playing well and has the revenge narrative in his favor against his former team.

Elite Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 29.6 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 21.1
FP/Game: 31.7 — FP/Min.: 1.07

Secondary Plays

Marco Belinelli

FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 27.3 — Usage Rate (TO Adj): 17.3
FP/Game: 18.1 — FP/Min.: 0.66

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious