NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-26 15:20:00

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Indiana at Atlanta

• Vegas Line – Indiana -2, 186 Over/Under
• Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand

Indiana

Boy was I wrong about Game 3. After dominating the 2nd half in Game 2, I expected the Pacers to come out and take control of this series, but once again, they showed up and gave a less than inspiring effort. Game 4 is absolutely critical for both teams. If the Pacers lose this game, they are going to have a very tough time winning 3 straight and if the Hawks lose, then they will lose homecourt advantage and have to play 2 of the last 3 games in Indiana. I expect this game to come down to the wire.

In Game 4 I will be targeting the same players that I targeted in Game 3. I will continue to avoid Roy Hibbert as his minutes and fantasy production continue to go down the drain. Lance Stephenson is coming off of his best game of the series. I think he makes a nice upside play in a GPP. I also still like George Hill as a punt play at PG. His shots were not falling in Game 3, but he played well in each of the first 2 games of this series.

• Paul George – George got into foul trouble early and it really impacted his production in the first half. George managed to stay out of foul trouble in the second half though and still ended up with 32 FP’s. I expect a nice bounce back game from him here. George is always a terrific play because he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and doesn’t rely on scoring points as his only means of fantasy production.

• David West – West has gotten better in each game of this series and is coming off of a 31 FP performance in Game 3. I expect that trend to continue upward and I will once again be heavily targeting him at PF. The fact is that the Hawks just don’t defend opposing PF’s well and with Hibbert playing limited minutes, West should be their go to guy in the post.

Atlanta

The Hawks continue to surprise everyone in this series. Every time that the Pacers make a run, the Hawks turn around and make a run of their own. This is one truly tough team mentally. That said, the series is far from over and they still have plenty of work to do if they want to move on to the 2nd round. This Pacers’ defense is clearly not what it once was so it is hard to trust any of the DvP rankings moving forward.

Paul Millsap has scored at least 33 FP’s in 2 of the first 3 games in this series and makes a nice play at PF if you are wanting to spend at that position. Kyle Korver has had 2 great games and 1 bad game so far and while I like his upside, I will only be using him as a GPP play. DeMarre Carroll is also in play here and he is opposite from Korver in that he has a high floor but a low ceiling.

• Jeff Teague – Teague is averaging over 35 FP’s per game in this series and it seems like no matter what the Pacers try to do to stop him, he just has his way with this defense. He continues to attack the rim at ease and also continues to knock down jumpers. It took me a few games, but I am finally a believer in Teague as a viable fantasy option in this series.

San Antonio at Dallas

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 202.5 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

San Antonio

The Spurs did not look like themselves in Game 2. They are lucky to have a 1-1 split in this series after almost losing Game 1. The Mavericks just seem to match up well in this series. That said, I have a hard time picking against Coach Pop and his cast of merry veterans. This is the playoffs that we are talking about. I expect the Spurs to pick up at least 1 of these next 2 road games.

Unlike the regular season when I didn’t want to target anyone on the Spurs in my cash games, now that we are in the playoffs I want to target everyone on the Spurs because you know that their star players are finally going to see a full workload. Tony Parker has played well against the Mavs this season and should continue that in Game 3. Tiago Splitter has been very good so far in this series and remains dirt cheap. And Kawhi Leonard has nice upside as a GPP play.

• Tim Duncan – Duncan did not have the Game 2 that I was expecting, but the Spurs were down big late and threw in the towel. Expect a huge bounce back game from him here. The Mavs were not great against PF’s this season and Duncan can pretty much get whatever he wants down low with Dirk defending him. I’m predicting something in the range of 20 points, 15 rebounds, and a few other peripheral stats to boot.

• Manu Ginobili – I love the playoffs on TNT because we get to constantly hear Charles Barkley say “GINOBILIIIIII.” So far so good for Manu in this series as he has averaged 28 FP’s per game in just under 30 minutes per game. All season long Manu was averaging close to 1 FP per minute and that has stayed true in the playoffs. Only now he is playing a few extra minutes. Target him in all leagues.

Dallas

The Mavericks have to be happy with a 1-1 split, but they also have to be kicking themselves for blowing Game 1. Either way they head to Dallas with homecourt advantage. The Spurs are the slight favorites in this game and I have to agree with Vegas here. I do expect this game to be very close though. As far as fantasy options go, the Mavs have had little to no standouts in this series. Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, and Jose Calderon have all had subpar fantasy outings. The best play here is probably Shawn Marion who had an excellent Game 2. That said, this Mavericks’ team has so many different contributors, that I find it hard to predict who will have a big game each night. I’ll likely avoid all Mavs in cash games.

Miami at Charlotte

• Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 188 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Miami

The Heat seem to be in complete control of this series. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get the sweep and then get some rest before playing the winner of the Nets/Raptors series. This series just doesn’t have many fantasy options because both teams play at a slower than average pace and both teams own a top 10 defense. LeBron James has played well, but I don’t think he warrants consideration with that extremely high price tag of his. Dwyane Wade is much cheaper, but the Heat are only going to use him as needed and I think he makes a better GPP play than a cash game play.

• Chris Bosh – Bosh is in play for two reasons. First, he is being defended by Al Jefferson who has been hobbled with his foot injury. Jefferson just can’t stay with Bosh on the perimeter. Second, Bosh’s price across the industry is depressed and on some sites he barely needs 30 FP’s to reach value.

Charlotte

The Bobcats are down 0-2 and this is going to be one of those situations where they just pat themselves on the back for making it farther than anyone expected. With a injured Al Jefferson, I just don’t see the Bobcats being able to pick up a win in this series. The way to beat the Heat is down low. Kemba Walker and Josh McRoberts both make interesting GPP plays, but I will be avoiding all Bobcats in cash games.

Oklahoma City at Memphis

• Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Oklahoma City

What a series this has been! We have already seen two 4-point plays in crunch time and the last two games have gone into OT. Tonight’s game 4 is critical for both teams and I think the winner of this game will go on to win the series. If the Thunder win, they will steal back homecourt advantage and if the Grizzlies win, they will take a commanding 2-1 lead.

As far as fantasy value goes, it’s hard to rely on the averages so far this series because two of these games have gone into OT and we can’t rely on that moving forward. Both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant numbers would have taken a hit if the last two games would have ended in regulation. The question is do we factor in the matchup or the situation more? I think the big 3 of the Thunder are all in play.

• Kevin Durant – Even though two of these games have gone into OT, KD has scored at least 52 FP’s in every game in this series. When teams are in a must win situation, they turn to their best player. The Thunder’s best player just so happens to be the likely MVP. Durant missed a lot of open looks in their last game and I don’t expect that to happen again. Look for another 50+ FP game from him tonight.

• Serge Ibaka – Ibaka posted 36 and 41 FP’s in the first two games of this series and then seemed like an afterthought in Game 3 as he only managed to put up 12 points and 5 rebounds. I think he is flying under the radar heading into Game 4 and I will be heavily targeting him in GPP’s.

Memphis

The Grizzlies have been tested over and over in this series and they just don’t seem to break. That all starts with their head coach David Joerger who may be the most even-keeled man on the planet. He preaches to his team to keep their emotions under control and that has really paid off for them. After blowing 4th quarter leads in Games 2 and 3, they stepped up and took over both games in OT.

As for tonight’s matchup, the same targets that you have been using throughout this series are all in play. Mike Conley continues to play well and he continues to hit clutch baskets, keep using him in cash leagues as long as the price is right. Courtney Lee and Toney Allen both make nice punt plays. They are seeing the majority of the minutes on the wing. I will be avoiding Zach Randolph tonight though. The Thunder stuck Perkins on him and it really worked well in Game 3. Look for more of that tonight.

• Marc Gasol – If you watched the game the other night, the TNT announcer (I believe it was Steve Kerr) continuously stated that the Grizzlies needed to get the ball into the hands of Gasol. He is such a calming influence on this offense and he draws so much attention from the defense that I expect the Grizzlies to go to him early and often in Game 4. Gasol is averaging 36 FP’s per game in this series.